damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Anyone on here can answer this.....................
What is your opinion about the right turn is forecasted to make?
What is your opinion about the conditions in the atmosphere that are supposed to turn her to the right?
What is your landfall guess? Is it on with the ? Accuweather has a different idea - they are saying Ft. Myers/Port Charlotte area.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I live in Orlando, about 5 miles north of the airport. We huddled in the bathroom of our aprtment and prayed that our windows didnt break during Charlie. The other storms were much more gracious to us 
My question is this: I am 27 weeks pregnant, and really cant remmeber if all of the ideas about pregnancy and hurricanes are Old Wives tales or if I need to follow any different precautions. I am categorized as Hi risk, but not having any current issues.
I pray that we have a more gentle effect from this storm, but I am "preparing for the worst and praying for the best as I have read so many times" I just can not remember if I am supposed to do anything differently.
thanks for any help - if this is too off topic please feel free to PM me and then delete the post (or move it to where it belongs) - I will not be offended - just need to find the info
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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A perfect example of what can happen when an area is in the cone: look at all the people who got stuck in N.O., MS, AL, Houston, etc.
Need I say more?
I'm not planning on going anywhere because a) I live inland (40 miles NE of Tampa) b) there's a shelter right across the street and c) I don't want to sit in line for 18 hours with a storm going at a large rate of speed.
For those of you who *think* you might get evacuated, just go ahead and make plans to do so NOW. Don't be like a bunch of sheep waiting for your turn to come.
You know who you are... good luck. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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The Lee County Board of Commissioners has declared a 7-day local state of emergency here.
And here is a link to a storm surge map for Lee County. Find yourself on it, and begin making your plans now.
http://www.bonitafire.org/page20.html
Or here is another one.
http://www.leepa.org/GISDepartment/StormSurge1.htm
Edited by MissBecky (Tue Oct 18 2005 05:52 PM)
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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My thoughts on evac which I posted elsewhere today (edited minorly for content since posting guidelines there are more lax):
In Florida, our Emergency Management folks don't mess around. You will be given at least 72 hours of evacuation time. If you take either I-95 or I-75, you will encounter heavier than normal traffic flow, but there will be gas the whole way (or trucks on the way to refill). The line will move, but there's a secret. If you pay attention to the (or this board), you'll have plenty of time to get the jump on folks. Just do your preparation now if you're in that cone. Have things packed for a week out-of-town and ready to load if/when needed.
OR...
Wait until about 6 hours before you receive TS force winds. You'll find either interstate to be almost completely devoid of traffic and will make better time than you ever have before.
Most importantly, know what you're going to do and where you're going to go NOW. If you're hoping to get a hotel closer than Virginia, you better make your reservations NOW and make sure to confirm.
So, in short (as a former inhabitant of Bradenton who remembers the flooding from the noname storm in the early 90s): go ahead and make your arrangements, but don't leave yet. If you know a friend on the east coast of FL, or someone further north and farther inland, you arrange to stay with them in a few days. Then you wait. The E/W roads (aside from the turnpike and I-4) tend not to be so crowded. If for example, you knew someone in Indian River or Brevard Counties, you take SR 60 (I think) across the state and it'll only take you a few hours.
The major highway flooding comes with the first mandatory evac notices. If you are prepared to, and leave within the first hour or two, you'll be just fine. If you wait just a little bit, you might find yourself in the logjam. That jam moves, but not very quickly at all.
If you feel you've missed the window and want to evac to the north, simply wait a bit longer and enjoy the slightly rainy/windy drive on an almost-empty interstate.
YMMV SPSFD
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Ned
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
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For what its worth-
Look for to take a hard rt. clearing Cuba,and stay low,Keys?
your new ned, so just letting you know.. if you're gonna post on the main board try to keep it conversational and add some reasoning. posts like this belong in the forecast lounge. just fyi. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 07:53 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 182158
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/21:42:20Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1112 m
D. 55 kt
E. 34 deg 051 nm
F. 111 deg 082 kt
G. 024 deg 009 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C7
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0524A OB 13
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
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nuwatcher
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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nowhammies,
Suggest you contact wesh.com (Channel 2). Weather persons Amy Sweezy and Leslie Hudson (sp?) were both PG during last year's hurricanes. Bet they can help you.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Pressure down 7 mb in about 2 hours, with the eye contracting to 7 mi in diameter... looks like a rapid deepening is underway. The satellite presentation is drastically improved in the last hour or so, with deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center and a tiny eye visible on the 2115Z and 2145Z IR images.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The eye is just starting to peek out on IR and WV.
I've gotten so used to watching the oversized hurricanes of this season...it is funny to see such a petite little core (outlined somewhat by a string of dry air that has spiraled in), surrounded by those monsterous feeder band arms.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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Here's a good surge map.
http://www.swfrpcgis.org/website/landsurge/viewer.htm
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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963? Wow. Is it just me, or is it starting to rapidly intensify?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well this is interesting because the temp diff has not improved beyond 3 deg. I think again that the dry air is a factor. Some of it may have worked its way into the core circulation. I wouldn't count on the winds catching up any time soon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see pressure keep dropping. I think things will shake out in a little bit, to allow steady intensification.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Quote:
Here's a good surge map.
http://www.swfrpcgis.org/website/landsurge/viewer.htm
Ah, yes. That one is much better than the ones I found. Plus it contains Charlotte, Collier and other SW Florida counties.Thanks!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Just heard this on Channel 11 ABC News Tampa Bay affiliate:
What will be the deciding factor of whether or not stays further south is this: there are two systems spinning out there: the one that has just entered CA and one off of the Gulf of Alaska. Philips said that *if* the two of those can get together, the more likely it will stay further south of Tampa. If they DO NOT come together, the turn will be further north. When will we know? He says by tomorrow we will see how close they are to each other.
Seems to make sense because if the two systems merge together, it will be stronger and push it further to the south. If they stay apart, there will be an opening for a further NE turn.
Make any sense to you?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
Anyone on here can answer this.....................
What is your opinion about the right turn is forecasted to make?
What is your opinion about the conditions in the atmosphere that are supposed to turn her to the right?
What is your landfall guess? Is it on with the ? Accuweather has a different idea - they are saying Ft. Myers/Port Charlotte area.
a)"What is your opinion about the right turn is forecasted to make?"
- High probability of occurrence; the trick will be, what is the degrees of the parabolic motion. 'That' will be virtually impossible to forecast because subtle nuances in both the storm structure its self and how those variants interact with the outside environment that's causing what is also the climate favored motion, cannot be deterministically modeled as they are perturbationally driven.
b)"What is your opinion about the conditions in the atmosphere that are supposed to turn her to the right?".
-The prefered synoptic reasoning at this time is that the models are in concert with what one would expect of the current state of the indices; those being the and NAO. The combination of these connotes a troughing digging smartly into Ohio Valley area, and this began appearing in earnest in the models 4 days ago. The global models are coming into decent agreement about the existence of this trough; there is however some divergent solutions regarding its exact amplitude and therefore, any subsequent affects it will ultimately have on determining both the amount of right turn of , but her speed in the flow thereafter. So, a few things to iron out there, but the gyst of all is that S Fl (Accuweather or both have acceptable prognosis given the data at hand) will likely have big, BIG problems. Right now the timing best fit for both experience and model output is about 4.5 days, from 12Z this morning.
c)"landfall guess? Is it on with the ? Accuweather has a different idea - they are saying Ft. Myers/Port Charlotte area".
-As mentioned, both Accuweather and have acceptable track guidance and have equal likelihood of positive result. As a clue though...I would not be surprised if the solution is a bit too far S at 120 hours. The other issue I have is that there is still some uncertainty about the meridinal amplitude of the well-advertised trough slated to settle into the Ohio Valley over the next few days. That feature could still impart a steeper steering field over the SE U.S. and East Coast, which still makes it not implausible to have the more N aspects of the "Cone of uncertainty" being the correct route.
In addition, a very strong will likely produce a bit of resistence to any differentiating steering components as she's first encountering them, and this can sometimes serve to conserve a given vector somewhat longer then anticipated - not something readily foreseeable however... Curving N, NNE then NE means that any one of these directions would likely be held slightly longer given her deeper structure and better ability to perform what is often refered to as "creating her own environment". She just has absolutely AWESOME mechanics in her favor right now. This has underdone intensity profile written all over it if you ask me.. Time and time again we see this...the storm out guns the marshals trying to assertain her vitality out in time, ending up being vastly more powerful. (Not sure why, but as a side note, these types of storms, where the parametrics are astoundingly good, are almost always "officially" underestimated)
Lastly, the 970mb low at core is a tad lower than the ideal pressure wind ratio. I'm sure this is because she's born in a region with lower than normal ambient sl pressure to begin with...As she smartly leaves the region and encounters high pressure to the N, she will likely begin seeing increases in her wind velocity measurements - depending on how quickly she can adjust to the new environment she's invading. It will be interesting to see this play out.
The other thing that interests me is that her best predicted track takes her over SST's that are balmy the whole way; what's ironic, its the only route left there without processed oceanic heat content from earlier season activity. That's just catastrophic bad luck for people who may be directly affected by her.
Frankly - and I hold no allegence to them - I favor Accuweather's solution over . Mainly because I think the trend for a deeper trough in the Ohio Valley has not yet completed finding a resolution, and therefore, there may be additional adjustments to the predicted steering currents that re-orient them with more S component in time... The tough part about that is, were talking about stuff that hasn't shown up in the models...
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Here is the NOAA Evac Zone tool ( I went ahead and preselected FL):
http://ekman.csc.noaa.gov/website/FEMA_EvacZ/AddressPage.htm?state=florida
I usually look at the storm surge layer rather than the evac layer. If this isn't a link on it should be; it goes down to the street address.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Well this is interesting because the temp diff has not improved beyond 3 deg.
Also the eye was open or ragged until this last recon. It's probably that there was a good bit of mixing going on since the eye wasn't well formed. Now that it has formed a closed eye I'd expect the temp difference to increase. Anyone know if the airforce recon is doing another pass before heading home?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I was high risk also. I would think that the best person to contact would be your doctor. He/she will tell if of any dangers you should be aware of. There are women who go into labor because of the pressure drops. It all depends on where you live. I bet the two weather people would also tell you to call your doctor because they won't want to be held responsibile if anything happens to you.
And...it was a GREAT question.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Based on the observed relationship so far between the surface winds and FL winds, the intensity is probably somewhere between 75-80 knots right now. 963 mb is absurdly low for a cat 1 hurricane, but this is probably approaching cat 2 as we speak.
7 mi is a very small eye diameter... I would expect it to either grow to a little more reasonable size at some point, or else collapse and attempt to reorganize.
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