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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: bobbutts]
      #58986 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:06 PM

dennis phillips on abc is sticking to his guns an the left side of the channel .... and he was talking about the 2 lows if they dont join together he doesnt feel like it will be enough to push Wilma south

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JG
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #58987 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:08 PM

Quote:

dennis phillips on abc is sticking to his guns an the left side of the channel .... and he was talking about the 2 lows if they dont join together he doesnt feel like it will be enough to push Wilma south




I saw the same thing and I wonder; does anyone have some good graphical model presentations (links please) of the rest of the U.S. so those of us in the "CONE" can see if Dennis has a legit concern. I would like to see the projected positions of these lows...


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weatherwatcher2
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #58988 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:09 PM

Whats Dennis Phillips track record? Isnt he the one who said Charlie was going to make a right hook?

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The Force 2005
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Re: 11PM Updates [Re: danielw]
      #58989 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:12 PM

From Accuweather:

Hurricane Wilma has rapidly gained strength since being upgraded to hurricane status Tuesday morning. The 12th hurricane of the 2005 season is now at Category 2 strength, and Accuweather.com forecasters say it will continue to intensify, gaining Category 3 strength by Wednesday morning. Taking advantage of ideal conditions for intensification, Wilma is expected to become a Category 4 storm by late Wednesday, with the potential for Category 5 strength by late Thursday.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models [Re: Circinae]
      #58990 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:13 PM

The "dreaded" pinhole eye means this is a very strong storm...the tighter the eye, the stronger. You don't want a hurricane bearing down on you with a "pinhole eye".
Actually, you don't want a hurricane bearing down on you with ANY kind of eye.
Now I'm going to hit the sack and get some rest. We all have plenty of time to watch this. If, however, you are in "the cone", I hope that you are making preparations or that they have already been completed. A storm this big threatening to make landfall as a Cat 3 is going to cause of lot of people to be out and about tomorrow. And it ain't gonna be pretty.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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dave foster
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models [Re: Random Chaos]
      #58991 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:14 PM

Yes it is, but the 37gig usually shows the eye better...

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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Colleen A.
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: JG]
      #58992 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:17 PM

Go to NOAA.gov and look for Satellites. Then click on them and you will see what he's talking about. He's got a pretty good track record. He doesn't really try to hype things up; he pretty much tells it like he sees it.
And yes, he was the one who predicted the right hand turn that Charley took. He didn't see it as a wobble, and he was correct.
He can be a little cocky sometimes, but that doesn't mean he doesn't know what he' s talking about. Personally, I prefer a local met who is willing to tell it like it is, not to stick solely to the discussions.
Heck, I could do that!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Hugh
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models [Re: Colleen A.]
      #58993 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:21 PM

Quote:

in "the cone", I hope that you are making preparations or that they have already been completed. A storm this big threatening to make landfall as a Cat 3 is going to cause of lot of people to be out and about tomorrow. And it ain't gonna be pretty.




I have NEVER seen bright white on a water vapor loop before, yet it was there in the 0115z image of Wilma - and lots of it. Not as much in the 0145z image but still some. Almost looks like it is moving south of west again. I keep thinking of Mitch. Same great satellite presentation... same basic location... and same basic computer model forecast. It made landfall in Honduras. Anyway... the water vapor loop DOES show some moisture streaming off Wilma to the north, which could indicate that a turn will ultimately occur.. or could just be a sign of incredible outflow which would mean who knows what we'll wake up to intensity-wise.

ETA: I just zoomed into the IR loop and it makes me dizzy. The eye moves west, south, and then north. What a wobbler!


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue Oct 18 2005 11:23 PM)


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ChessieStorm
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #58994 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:26 PM

Quote:

Whats Dennis Phillips track record? Isnt he the one who said Charlie was going to make a right hook?




Dennis only said Charley would hit the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area after the the storm began making a turn to the right around 1 p.m.. He didn't predict that turn until it actually happened, while most said Charley was wobbling, Dennis said no it is turning.

Actually Channel 8's met predicted a Punta Gorda landfall early that morning and before Charley turned according to the Viper technology he was using.

I like watching Dennis and was watching today (and tonigh), but after Charley he gloated too much on how he said it would affect the areas it eventually affected.

Edited by ChessieStorm (Tue Oct 18 2005 11:30 PM)


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dolfinatic
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: Colleen A.]
      #58995 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:26 PM

Dennis has said again. He says on his latest forecast that if Wilma comes up the west side of the yucatan channel she will go further north. if she goes through on the east side, she will go to the south. He talked about the two lows again and how he doesnt see the two combining and he feels the storm will come up the west side of channel and head further north toward central florida. I hope he gets this one wrong this time.

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ChessieStorm
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: dolfinatic]
      #58996 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:32 PM

Quote:

Dennis has said again. He says on his latest forecast that if Wilma comes up the west side of the yucatan channel she will go further north. if she goes through on the east side, she will go to the south. He talked about the two lows again and how he doesnt see the two combining and he feels the storm will come up the west side of channel and head further north toward central florida. I hope he gets this one wrong this time.




I don't see those two ULL's combining. The one moving out of the 4 corners is too far ahead of the northwest Pacific ULL.

The question will be how much does the southern Rockies ULL erode the high pressure and affect the winds out ahead of it to pull Wilma north/northeastward.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models [Re: Random Chaos]
      #58997 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:40 PM

FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
*96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND****
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT
$$
11:00 has eye right over my castle @ 96 hours!!

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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ralphfl
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #58998 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:41 PM

Well he also just said he thinks punta Gorda so don't make it sound like he said tampa or above tampa he said in fact he feels like it maybe punta Gorda.

With that said he has been wrong before and like everyone else its all conjecture till the cone is real small and the storm is a day or less from hitting.


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dave foster
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models [Re: Hugh]
      #58999 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:42 PM

I like this animation the best. The last frame looks like a perfect blue eye.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Margie
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #59000 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:46 PM

Hey, Wilma is going to go right over buoy 42056 tomorrow. If it stays running imagine the waves we'll see.

Note: also the eye can now be seen on visible sat image.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Wed Oct 19 2005 12:01 AM)


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flacameraman
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #59001 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:47 PM

I am just curious if anyone knows when, and where watches or warnings may be posted

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dolfinatic
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: ralphfl]
      #59002 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:48 PM

He said punta gorda,but at the end of his discussion he pointed out that if the storm went to the western end of yucatan channel that it would be more of a central florida problem. I did not say tampa at anytime. Dont put words where they are not. I am not a wishcaster. I really hope they are all wrong and it goes on out further south and out to sea. I was just stating what our local met had said. nothing more.

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mommy21
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Re: Possibly off topic, but concerned none the less [Re: nowhammies]
      #59003 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:49 PM

Hi...
I just had my second at the beginning of hurricane season and had the same questions (also high risk).
Make sure you contact your OB and follow any instructions given by them.
Have your OB give you a copy of your file to keep with you if it should be needed.
Have PLENTY of water on hand, dehydration can cause contractions/pre-term labor.
If you are on any meds to stop contractions, make sure you have the RX filled and within reach.
And of course follow the normal hurricane precautions.
God Bless,
Fellow Orlando Mommy


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ChessieStorm
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane [Re: ralphfl]
      #59004 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:50 PM

Quote:

Well he also just said he thinks punta Gorda so don't make it sound like he said tampa or above tampa he said in fact he feels like it maybe punta Gorda.

With that said he has been wrong before and like everyone else its all conjecture till the cone is real small and the storm is a day or less from hitting.




I know this isn't a message board, but I didn't say he said Tampa or northward, he said tonight Punta Gorda and points south IFit stays on the east side of the Yucitan Channel.

If it is westward, it could affect the Bay area more.

Right now I'm just waiting and getting prepared just in case.


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DJINFLA
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Stupid question. . . [Re: Margie]
      #59005 - Tue Oct 18 2005 11:50 PM

OK, here's the stupid question of the day. Forgive me, but I'm still learning. Lake Okeechobee is pretty darned big. What type of impact (if any) would it have on Wilma if it were to cross right over it?


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