SMOKE
Weather Watcher
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Loc: USA, Ga.
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RECON will be on station soon enough to allow for a better fix and motion.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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So far out still 4-5 days away and new NOAA data not in yet until 00Z runs,,,so model runs are nice to see now,, but to take them serious enough,, we need to wait 12hrs or more.
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: SW FL
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Great, send it my way. Thats excactly what we need here in Ft. Myeres(Yeah right!)
But to my untrained eye it appears as though may be undergoing rapid intestification. The center is condesing, indicitive of strengthing. Also the convection is increasing around the and outflow is starting to happen to the west of it. All this tells me that this thing is strengthing quickly. We'll have to see the next advisory, but I wouldnt be surprised to see a cat 2.
Just my 2 cents, hope it stays south of Ft. Myeres. Charlie was bad enough and we didnt even get the eye wall!
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I'm looking at both the 12Z and 06Z both coming in at or just south of Sarasota. do you have a link to the 12Z ?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
One thing that catches my eye is between 22/12z and 23/00z (landfall time) the has winds go from 94kt to 109kt @ 950mb
Was going on the assumption of some weakening just before landfall.
But that's a model.
However there is a very real concern for a very strong hurricane to form, which means even if it loses strength before landfall, as it undoubtably would, it could still be very strong (a warning tried to convey about before landfall).
Following the trail of breadcrumbs from this morning...
My earlier post (6:30am-ish) I observed that the 5am discussion was setting up the 11am for warning of major hurricane status. Look at the 11am disc, a lot about strengthening (Franklin cracked me up again). Now...check the forecast track points against the HHC...a straight shot right through the warmest deepest waters left in the Caribbean, and onward through the loop current. Finally a quote from Max M on CNN early this am: "If it goes through the Yucatan Channel, there won't be much to weaken it," Mayfield said. And, also, "People in the Gulf Coast are going to have to watch ."
So I think we're definitely talking about a very good probability for more than Cat 3, something that could sustain enough strength to be a major hurricane at landfall. Early Thursday morning, once gets above 19.5N, is about when the fun will begin. Could be continued strengthening right into Friday, even if she clips Cuba's flat western tip. And while we've seen how storms can weaken dramatically from their peak strength in the hours before hitting the coastline (Dennis, ), that isn't the kind of thing you want to bet the farm (or house) on. That is to say, it would be too late to leave in the possible eventuality that things turned out for the worst, even though it isn't that likely.
We know forecasting intensity at any specific point in the track is not possible more than a day or so out, and we know from Emily that very strong hurricanes can suddenly stutter and drop in intensity, with no explanation. However we can't count on that happening, but have to anticipate the strongest possible likely outcome.
That is the key thing. True, it's likely going to hit in the GOM somewhere, once they get in there they can't usually get out without hitting somewhere, and we won't be able to narrow it down where 's going for another 48 hours. But we can see, starting today, the potential for a strong hurricane to make landfall, not a Cat 1 or 2.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: UK
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I find it very difficult in determining a storm's direction from the animated image plots. The differing levels of convection between sweeps can be confusing resulting in the perception that the storm's changed direction. A couple of sweeps later and it suddenly appears back on it's original track. Now, whether that's some kind of optical illusion or whether the storm took a little wobble is hard to say, so I suppose it's best to just ignore it and wait for the bigger picture to eventually pan-out.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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just what is now on Weather underground under the models which the gdfl is new on there from 30 mins ago.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Link to text of 12Z (scroll down to the bottom of the linked page):
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05101817
Edited by Brad in Miami (Tue Oct 18 2005 05:45 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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FSU anims has the display of the 12Z out. That model is having the hurricane track do some very interesting gymnastics in order to keep it from making landfall anywhere...strong hook east just after passing the tip of Cuba, then a slight dip just before FL causing it to shoot just south of the Keys, then arcing back northeast as it clears FL. Weird. 
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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The thing that worries me down here in S FL is the speed increase right before landfall. From Saturday off the western tip of Cuban to almost all the way across the state of FL by Sunday? That's a big move in only 24 hours! Once she takes aim she'll be coming in hard and fast ...thus any changes to the forecast cone or path will need to be updated very quickly. I don't like when storms are predicted to make a hard turns because the timing is always so iffy, yet has such a dramatic effect on where landfall occurs. Friday is going to be a real nail biter around here.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Hmm well at least the has dropped south 80 or so miles. But models are still moving around abit. General concensus is Florida, but where is a question that I have a feeling wont be known for a bit.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The link below shows the forecast points and heading for the 12Z :
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM
It looks like model picks up on the increase in forward speed and more western movement that seems to be occurring right now. Interpolating between data points, the model suggests that landfall will be between 108-114 hours, with a forward speed of around 20 knots. Even though upper level SW flow will be increasing, it does not appear from the model output I have seen that the environmental shear will be very high in the Gulf until you get north of the Tampa area.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Good points..we'll all be nuts if we watch every wobble north,east, south and west. What is finally allowing to move is the system that has finally moved into CA.
Some general points to all: I don't think that we could classify 7mph as zooming ahead. I believe that this was expected and talked about in previous discussions from the . There is some dry air trying to get into the northern/western side of the system, but because the outflow is good on the eastern side, it's really not affecting it all that much. I think they are expecting it be a Cat 2 before tonight, and if it keeps intensifiying, maybe a Cat 3 before the 5am advisory. The steering currents arem
t really that impressive right now; however, we are seeing jogs to the west, jogs to the north. This may be the storm trying to get her act together and is not at all unusual. You have to look for trends, not jogs, to see things for what they really are. This year the has done an excellent job with all of it's storms, and I expect no less with this one. With the weather patterns that are set up, there is no reason to expect (at this time) a major shift in the landfall area. The models are even in more agreement now than they have been since TD began her journey.
Just remember this: don't try and steer her somewhere she isn't going and you'll stay sane...and so will we. Unless she stalls out like Mitch did, and there's no reason at this time to believe she will, stay tuned and prepared if you live anywhere on the west coast of Florida. Let me rephrase that: if you live anywhere in the CONE area.
Now...wouldn't you know that the motherboard on my laptop went out today? Luckily for me, I have a desktop. This may be a good thing as I cannot sit and stare at the computer all day long. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Intensity-wise, the 12Z bottoms the system out at around 923 mb in about 36 hours, then weakens it to 950mb as it brushes past the Yucutan in 72 hours, then keeps the intensity mostly steady in the Gulf, with some deepening back to around 947 mb before landfall.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Actually whats moving her now is the ridge over the western gulf is weakening and moving into Mex while a ridge is building over the Hispaniola area into the SW Atlantic and Carribean,,,,,the flow around that is to the WNW... you can also see that with the cirus clouds moving now over Central Cuba and getting better defined in the NW Carribean. The system over Cal and Az wont have a good affect on her until maybe Thurs-Fri as for now she will migrate around the ridge.
Edited by scottsvb (Tue Oct 18 2005 06:04 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The latest seems to be the 6Z
There are three 12Z runs up, , and UKMET. the effect of the WNW motion seems to be shifting the track initiall more eastward, away from Yucatan, AND further north along the Florida coast. The UK for example took the system near Yucatan south of the peninsula on earlier runs and is now is in the straight and in SW Florida south of Naples.
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doug
Edited by doug (Tue Oct 18 2005 06:13 PM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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wilma is moving, putting the storm a little ahead of schedule. i have a very bad idea about what is going to happen based on some trends i'm seeing in the model runs. a lot of the globals are now developing a coastal low north of as the storm nears and crosses florida... this being an artefact of the cut off low currently crossing the middle of the country. as this cut off low nears the east coast, it is forecast to be intercepted by and deepened by shortwave energy from the the mid latitudes, and move into a position near the great lakes by late in the weekend. pretty much all of the models are shunting east of the u.s. and way out into the atlantic... except for and suggestions by the canadian, which shows AS the coastal low. this would imply that the storm phases in ahead of the deepening cutoff and accelerates up the coast. hold the phone... new euro is showing this solution as well. yeah, i'm gonna chunk the unphased solution... gets these tropical to mid-latitude energy transfers wrong all the time. last night the models were showing a flatter mid-latitude pattern and slower system... today we've got the models showing their arrival along the eastern seaboard better timed. watch for these solutions, as they show additional trouble along the east coast as the storm blasts up the coast... a distance off hatteras but right in on cape cod and maine. this could carry a great deal of tropical moisture north for new england and the canadian maritimes... and add a second impact from the storm as a transitional system around monday-tuesday... after what looks to be a substantial hit on florida saturday-sunday.
just out of hardheadedness i'll keep the high strike window from sarasota to naples. will trim the northern edge of the overall window from crystal river.. and take the keys off (don't buy the ). so make that chokoloskee to crystal river, with a highest prob near the area hit last year. i do think this storm will be cat 2-cat 3 at landfall, and have a large envelope... i.e. swath of high winds and rains will probably encompass most of the peninsula. my dad is going to be in polk county to see family thursday-sunday... i'm keeping him appraised of the visitor on the way... and think his sunday morning flight out of orlando may not be going anywhere.
will just add this since i've got a hunch it will turn out right... pattern the shows has a strong subtropical ridge building over the central atlantic during the next few days. this should actually allow westward-moving wave energy to run in brief, summer-reminiscent pattern... there is development indicated in the caribbean late in the month, so we may have another system nearing 's current position 10-12 days later. whether it can develop or not is tough to say at this point.. synoptically the pattern looks great, but getting enough of a wave together this time of year is a stretch. there may be a pattern-pulse type effect that causes one to appear out of nothing. i'd put money on us seeing a greek alphabet storm before the month is out.
HF 1827z18october
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Some of you might find this interesting on thresholds for rapid intensification...since its been suggested by many that might be a candidate...
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/rapid_table1.html
I found it to be very interesting...I am looking now to see how many of these would apply. While I'm here...wonder if any of the mets would comment about these "thresholds" as they might apply to
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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The 00Z UKMET though is almost exactly what the 12Z UKMET is showing. So no real change there. THE has moved further north, but I am not sure what to think of that. However, it hasnt done to bad with this storm as of yet, so I think it can be at least glanced at. It was the only storm for a while showing a FL hit, while the others had it going into the BOC.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Having just gone through this with this is my advice. If you are in the cone get reservations now incase you have to evacuate.
You can always cancel at a later date. I made my reservations when was headed through the Keys because I knew she'd be
a Texas storm. Also, one other note. Make reservations with the hotel direct or if you make them online confim with the hotel.
I know a lot of people who made reservations online and got to their hotel and the rooms had been given to someone else because
they did not make the reservations direct with the hotel. And please, if is a 3 or higher and you can do so, LEAVE. Of course,
a lot can happen between now and then and they can't be sure what she will do more than a couple of days out but it doesn't hurt
to be prepared. Make your reservations for several days. Damage was so bad we were not allowed back into the city. Of course,
if you have relatives to go through then you don't have to worry quite as much. I know people in Florida are usually prepared for
these storms but just wanted to throw this out there.
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