NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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296
URNT12 KNHC 180614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/05:56:30Z
B. 15 deg 40 min N
079 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 241 deg 065 kt
G. 152 deg 009 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 15 C/ 1530 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0424A OB 14
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 05:53:30 Z
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR DUE TO ATTENUATION
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Aha! So it's YOUR fault~I should have known! 
Actually, I was supposed to meet my Mom in Tifton, GA on Thursday to pick up my 4-year old niece..I was going to have her for a week. Looks like that won't be happening....(is this a good or bad thing?  ..)
I don't want to be clogging up or be clogged up in people trying to evacuate on I-75 N, and quite frankly, I don't want the responsibility of keeping a 4-year old calm and safe in the middle of a hurricane~no matter if it's a 1, 2, 3 or whatever. Plus, my sister already said "Forget it".
I think that the most telling sign of all of this is the accuracy that the has had with all of their tracks with the previous 20 storms. I can't see a major track shift at this time either. It may be a little north or a bit further south, but I'm tending to believe at this time that someone in the west coast of FL is going to get this storm.
I do have one question: is there any possibility that the forecasted shear will relax if takes her sweet time getting near us? Or is that shear pretty much set in stone? Just wondering.
BTW...great post on whether or not to stay for a Cat 3 or less. I live 40 miles +/- NE of Tampa and I have plenty of hurricane kit items left. Guppie Grouper and I pretty much live within 10 miles of each other; lives 'round the corner~ so I'm in good hands!
Keeping a close eye on ...I'm
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Don't forget the most important thing....do NOT focus on the LINE...look at the entire storm. Remember, was supposed to hit Tampa Bay, but turned at the last minute. You are in the cone, I am in the cone. As long as you are in that "cone", you need to be paying close attention and getting prepared. If the tropical storm force winds have extended out from 70 nautical miles to 120? 125? miles, then that is a sign this storm is growing and I would expect it to continue to grow, especially if it does not interact with land as it makes its trek through the Western Caribbean and the Yucatan then into the Gulf of Mexico.
Plus, the Mayor of N.O. is telling people to prepare to evacuate at a moment's notice. That means it *probably* won't be heading that way. For their sake, I hope that's correct. For our sake, well... 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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It is not a given that will weaken in the Gulf, at least because of shear (lower SSTs may have an impact). Assuming it turns NE, it will moving in the same direction as the deep layer flow, so the only environmental shear will be due to changes in wind speed with height (speed shear). If it makes a further south landfall, the speed shear affecting the storm may not be very significant at all. Increasing southwesterly flow to the north of the system may temporarily enhance the outflow as well. Finally, an increase in forward speed may enhance the maximum winds in the right-front quadrant of the system. The best bet for weakening will be for the storm to pass near or over the Yucutan (like in the 00Z and 06Z /GFDL) or near/over western Cuba (as in the official forecast). If the system becomes strong enough, eyewall-replacement cycles, which can't be forecast reliably, could also play a major role.
Generally speaking, storms coming under the influence of SW aloft from the mid-latitudes will tend to weaken, but there are factors that can cause the opposite to happen as well in some cases. I can recall both Opal and rapidly intenisfying as they came under the influence of SW flow aloft. Opal weakened quite a bit before landfall, but did not have time to cycle down before striking Florida. figures to be a larger system and probably less prone to rapid intensity changes if it enters the Gulf, but it is still hard to predict exactly how it would react to an environment where both the shear (inhibiting factor for intensity) and upper-level divergence (positive factor) will be at least slowly increasing.
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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I guess I should have known the answer to my question...Charley "was" our storm and mother nature won over the models.
Does she look to you all like she's moving a little NW now or am I seeing things.
Thanks everyone!
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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In Florida, I expect a hurricane hit with sub 950 pressures and most of the coast from Cedar Key to Jacksonville to have at least hurricane-force gusts. I have a landfall 3:00-9:00 a.m. Sunday between Tampa and Key West and an exit within 25 miles of Cape Canaveral 12-15 hours later. Unlike the fist of fury that was , this will be more of a large-scale brawler, much like Isabel. Also unlike , which underachieved and disappeared farther north, this is likely to help produce plenty of wind and rain farther north.
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Ronn
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Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
I do have one question: is there any possibility that the forecasted shear will relax if takes her sweet time getting near us? Or is that shear pretty much set in stone?
Because the digging trough is what will eventually turn to the NE, it will not be able to escape the SW shear ahead of the trough. In October, it is common for intense hurricanes in the western Caribbean to weaken ahead of troughs as they turn northeast in the GOM. Granted, this weakening may not be drastic, but it should keep landfall intensity at Cat 2--and less likely a low-end 3--regardless of how intense becomes in the Caribbean. This is what happened in the October 1921 hurricane that struck Tampa: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1921/6/track.gif. Looks like this system will come in farther south because of its current slow movement.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Is Joe B the voice of doom or what. He sounds like he is predicting Armigedon.
MaryAnn 
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Is Joe B the voice of doom or what. He sounds like he is predicting Armigedon.
MaryAnn
That Joe B's style. Not totally unreasonable, it's better to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best than the other way around.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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KiminCanada
Verified CFHC User
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HI everyone, I have come in search of info if I may. I am planning on flying into Orlando on Oct 26th....
by what you have seen so far with do you think this might be a problem?
I have been lurking on this site since last year when we narrowly missed and got out of Orlando
just before Jean hit. I have to say you are all very knowledgable and I enjoy reading your posts.
Thanks
Kim
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Those who are concerned that the has a line drawn over their house, Do not take that line into consideration. It will change.. However, whats important right now is the cone. Sometimes I think shouldnt use a line and should just use the cone so people become less focused on a single line (though they will draw their own little line in their heads.).
As far as if the margin of error is enough to have land fall in Naples vs Tampa, thats well within the margin of error and at this point their could be shifts north or south. While I would rather see a Mitch then a Charlie (from a track standpoint) I doubt that will happen in this case. In any case, the scenario is not looking very good. The good news and bad news is it is forecasted to be a quick moving storm when it moves across the penninsula.
Guess we will be watching this for a few more days.. and waiting.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
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While I don't wish any ill on anyone in south Florida, for myself, I'm praying that stays south of Tampa. The old-timers in the Cedar Key area are concerned with this storm. They've been reading signs that if this one goes above Tampa it could be pulled straight into the mouth of the Suwannee and down the River. They seem to be thinking that they're due. Something about the current patterns and because our area has cooled down too early this year (we're already in the high 50's at night). I desperately hope that they're wrong. Maybe this storm is all my fault and I'm a magnet. I just moved to this location, I live less than 30 miles from Cedar Key, in a mobile home, on stilts and a half mile from the Suwannee. After the last two years of this ten year cycle? What in the world was I thinking?
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The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I have no idea if Joe B. is saying this will be better or worse than . And I forget what the heck or where the heck Isabel did and where she was when she did whatever it is what Joe B. said she did.
Any help here? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lysis
User
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Hurricane Isabel, having weakened from an impressive cat 5, hit North Carolina as a sizable category 2 on September 18, 2003.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/images/isabell/Isabel_18Sept03_Terra_gray_1_strip.jpg
The 06Z was nice, taking the eyewall between Sarasota and Ft. Myers, as per Hank’s area of concern, and carrying strong winds far inland.
I discourage any analogue to , which will invariably come up, if it has not already. If anything, I would expect a much larger event in scope, if more moderated in intensity.
If you look back at the early half of the 20th century you will see a slew of mighty west coast hurricanes. Lo and behold, nearly all of them are October storms that made landfall about this week!
Actually… 61 years ago on this day saw the arrival of the Havana Florida hurricane, which, after passing over western Cuba, accelerated northward making landfall between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
Incredibly, the cyclones eye was reported to be nearly seventy miles in diameter as it trudged across the peninsula, exiting into the Atlantic around Jacksonville. Just as interesting was the fact that the highest storm surge (12 feet) was actually on the Atlantic side of things. Such was the storms size that it caused extensive damage to nearly every part of the state.
I was hoping to find a windfield analysis… as I want to see this bizarre storm myself.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Oct 18 2005 10:21 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I hope this helps: at this time, there is no way to tell you whether or not it will be a problem to fly into Orlando on the 26th, because we don't know for sure where landfall will be, when it will be and how large will be. Landfall is now predicted to be somewhere between Saturday night and Monday, depending on exactly where she goes. If she is a large storm, it is likely she will affect more areas than if she was a smaller storm. From all that I am seeing, she is growing larger. That means a wider area of damage. It doesn't have to be a major hurricane to do a lot of damage.
The best advice is to check with your airline (and your hotel) once the storm has passed.
Hope that helps!
Colleen 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Colleen regardless of what Joe B said or did not say it would do, one thing is for certain, he will still pat himself on the back for it.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Where'd everyone go? Did go down? Looks like the models are in good agreement now on a southwest Florida landfall. They are also saying that the shear may not have enough time to impact the intensity because it will be moving so rapidly. Which is good news and bad news...the bad news is that it could be stronger than expected at landfall...the good news is that it won't sit and spin on top of Florida for a day or two.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
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I will not rest until the shifts more in line with the others.
The site must have been down for awhile, I was unable to post myself
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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yeah ur right everyone droped off .. i figure this would be bangin full of folks .. @ any rate ... i hope this one isnt the 1 for the bay area i couldnt imagine tryin to evac .. pinellas county ... would be f'n crazy hopefully it will just stay south of florida bad news for the keys tho
Edit: i no way am i sayin it will come as far north as tampabay .. i was just sayin the logitsics would be a nightmare
Edited by D3m3NT3DVoRT3X (Tue Oct 18 2005 12:11 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Well, you've been so great at posting useful info I guess the rest of us havne't felt the need to post
Anyway...
While waiting for the 12Z runs to be posted on the anim site, you can still see very good convergence of the 12Z runs over at http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ - it looks like this storm is angling right through the only non-land area between Cuba and the Yucatan and will almost definately make a right hook at FL. The question is intensity. Once the storm pulls away from the Carribean and the loop current, there isn't much warm water in the gulf to sustain it. I'd expect weakening prior to landfall. The system's speed may be a major factor in how much weakening we'll see, and it has still a ways to go before it reaches full strength.
--RC
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