Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
And here I thought we in Osceola and Polk were gonna have a great season - - Oh well - - Until drops south, I won't feel real comfortable. Probably next Monday. 
|
KiminCanada
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 13
|
|
Thansk for the info.
|
dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
|
|
I believe the 's current speed for Hurricane is on the conservative side at 7mph. I would put it at between 8mph and 12mph - 8mph if on the edge of their position of uncertainty ( 20 miles ) at both the current and last position, otherwise 12mph.
--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
|
funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 55
|
|
i'm down here in sarasota/bradenton, fl and is making me very nervous. i do live about 15 miles inland, 45 ft above sea level, with brand new construction, so i feel a bit ok about staying. only thing is flying debris -- our neighborhood had dumpsters full of debris everywhere.
going to get supplies tonight
--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
|
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 318
|
|
I agree with you 100%. should do away with the line or do the track in a way that people won't just concentrate on the black
line. I've heard people say here they didn't do a good job predicting 's path but they did an excellent job. You can't just concen-
trate on that black line and they can't be real accurate about eventual landfall more than one or two days out. Meteorologists really
need to emphasize the cone more.
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
That's an awfully drastic change of direction has to take at the tip of Cuba. This is going to be a very long week. I'm afraid we won't know much until she does start the NE turn.
Jackie
|
sara33
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
|
|
I have a question??
Please correct me if I am wrong. I thought that they thought the storm would move VERY slow to the West for a couple of days. Now that she seems to be picking up speed and foward movement, will that affect the track more? I thought that the more time that it took to get into the GOM it would be a more South FL track and the faster that it got into the GOM that it would be more a W. Central storm..or maybe the other way around..Any comments?
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
I believe that everything that was said about speed and intensity was speculation when it was said. The real facts have to do with current conditions in the Caribbean are subject to change at the drop of a hat. So, the best rule of thumb is to keep watching at least one up date per day. The site is full of meterologists and very knowlegeable undergraduates who can make very educated guesses without having all the data available. Prepare for the worst, expect the worst, and then relax and follow the news. This site is very good for actual updates on the main page. If you do not take the postings with a grain of salt, you will be making yourself crazy.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
My guess is that the newer models which will reflect the NW motion will answer that question.
There is a weakness in the ridging now over the South Gulf coast as the movement of one part to the SW is occurring and the part over the SE is lifting out to the east. That can explain why the storm started moving as she has. But remember there is an expected reinforcement of the ridge along the Gulf coast followed by the sharp trough a couple of days later that is supposed to sweep all this out to the NE.
The reinforcing ridge is expected to keep the storm's northward progress slower .
The models will be sampling all this and the run after this one will be more definitive in my opinion.
--------------------
doug
Edited by doug (Tue Oct 18 2005 12:46 PM)
|
CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
|
|
You certainly don't need to worry about storm surge at 45 feet, and, if your construction is up to Miami-Dade standards, your roof's tied down and your garage door is secure for a good blow. Looks like the only weakness you have is your windows/doors unless your have hurricane glass, storm panels, or plywood. Got idea to get supplies ASAP. I'll honk the horn to you in a couple of days just in case I need to use my hotel reservations in Ocala.
|
MissBecky
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
|
|
Fort Myers NBC affiliate has finally decided to notice . From the station's website:
Computer models have come into good agreement, with last night's versions showing that will track slowly northwest today and Wednesday, turning slowly to the north on Thursday and through the Yucatan Channel on Friday.
From there, the storm heads northeast, with models ranging from crossing over the Florida Keys to landfalls near Charlotte or Sarasota counties.
Because the storm is still several days away and conditions may change, all Floridians need to be prepared for the possibility of hurricane conditions in four or five days.
As the storm progresses the forecast will be refined, but as of now it appears will be a quick-moving storm, producing 4-6 inches of rain.
The main threat from should be wind and a potential storm surge.
All Southwest Florida residents should continue to monitor this storm closely.
****
I'm glad they're talking about this early, so people here have plenty of time to make their preparations. I think the prevailing attitude here is, "What?? I thought hurricane season was over!"
|
amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
|
|
For everyone that is concerned about the black line used with the cone. Here is an interesting .pdf file about the "cone of error". It's from the Texas Governor's Division of Emergency Management. Please note it is a PDF file and can only be opened with Adobe Acrobat
www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/press/press051805.pdf 
sorry link was bad should work now!
Edited by amonty (Tue Oct 18 2005 12:52 PM)
|
lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
|
|
It seems to my very untrained eye that the forecast predictions on track for have not been terribly accurate so far. The last advisory had her at 7 m.p.h. NW and expected to continue that for next 24 hours, but satellite imagery sure suggests that she has a much more westerly component than north right now. Also, the models seem to have bounced around a bit, at least in the short term. Bottom line is that this is somewhat reminiscent of Mitch and the lesson is to expect the unexpected, as the saying goes.
Would not be surprised to see the forecast path change a bunch between now and same time tomorrow so those with cruises and ball games (see above posts) obviously need to keep an eye on things but I don't know that I'd change plans much right now based on what we THINK we know so far.
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
Wilma definitely seems to have picked up speed, though that could just be temporary. The 12Z moves it steadily towards the Yucutan until 36 hours, then slows it down and turns it north toward the Yucutan channel, brushing by Cuba in the 60-84 hour time frame. It then has an even sharper turn to the east, bringing the center just south of the Keys and the peninsula in about 108 hours.
Right now, it appears that is undergoing some shear from the west. The outflow is restricted in that part of the storm and there appear to be light westerly winds at some level blowing into the western side of the system at the moment.
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
don't like the 12Z run right into tampa bay.Hope the rest don't follow suit.Can't remember what the was before since it is not very good i did not look.
that's the canadian meteorological center model. it's a lot better for mid-latitude stuff... sometime's it's on and sometimes not. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 01:44 PM)
|
dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
|
|
The speed the publishes is the estimated speed of motion at the time of the advisory ( correct me if I'm wrong anyone ) but they may also take into account the average speed between the last advisory and the current one. The speeds that I am quoting are those average speeds, between the last advisory position and the current advisory position i.e. say the distance from point A to point B is 68 miles. It takes the storm 6 hours to move between these two points, hence the average speed was approx. 11mph. Taking into account the 's level of uncertainty of any advisory position that they publish, the actual speed may be more or less than the original speed quoted. This may result in them making a conservative estimate of speed at the current position, in this case 8mph.
--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
|
SMOKE
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
|
|
Quote:
For everyone that is concerned about the black line used with the cone. Here is an interesting .pdf file about the "cone of error". It's from the Texas Governor's Division of Emergency Management. Please note it is a PDF file and can only be opened with Adobe Acrobat
www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/press/press051805.pdf
sorry link was bad should work now!
Great point ... it is impossibly difficult to educate the masses. Director Mayfield and his predecessor made an overt effort publicly to point that out. The 'room' for error is advertised, however, it always comes back to .... 'what did you hear versus were you listening?'.
--------------------
|
Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
|
|
I've been looking at the floater loops and trying to figure out if this is what I'm seeing? It looks as if is to the left of the forecast points, putting her recent motion more west than northwest.
Or is it just me?
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
A few thoughts...
The storm is wobbling a little south of the NW line at the moment, not sure how long that will hold, but it should make for some more nervous jitters further north.
If it gets strong enough, I expect it to have a more difficult time turning, and some of those sharp right hand turns just won't be quite as sharp (as the storm will be strong enough to deflect the turning mechanisms), I hope everyone north of Tampa keeps an eye on the storm (which I suspect people will around here).
That being said, I suggest taking a bit of time this afternoon and next to relax and keep away from the computer and tracking these storms. After all, it's not going to change direction no matter how hard you stare at the pixels  and you quite possibly will need the rest and fresh mind in the weekend ahead.
Wilma is looking better, the restricted NW quadrant is starting to build back, which tells me that either the dry air is being pushed back, or is able to absorb that blow.
Just my untrained thoughts...
-Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
NEW GDFL has lowered to FT Myers so now none near Tamap.....Hope it stays that way.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
