WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
As a person with hotel management experience...it is VITAL that you make reservations directly with the hotel. Remember that many hotels are not owned by the chain and many are not even interfaced (especially in smaller cities/towns) to the main reservations system. Hotels routinely overbook due to cxl rates...it is a true art to actually get a "full house"
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
sara33
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
|
|
HankFrank...
So in Laymens terms you see the highest probability from Crystal River south to Sarasota/Naples?
Thanks
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL 
highest prob venice to fort myers, just my reckoning. crystal river is the northernmost point of the window. chokoloskee down the coast from naples is the southernmost. don't think keys or big bend with this one... right through the middle. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 03:14 PM)
|
sprghill
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 13
Loc: Lake County, FL
|
|
what are the chances of comming to tampa,and when could we expect to feel the effects
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Well what I'm saying is that starting in the wee hours of the morning, started priming the pump (getting the word out) for potential for a major hurricane at landfall. It's just what they did with and . That's a different ballpark than saying could get up to a Cat 3 while in the Caribbean.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 10
|
|
I understand it is way too early to pinpoint a landfall, but what is everyone's opinion on how it will cross the peninsula. Are you all thinking it's a straight east path, or more like in that it will come up through the state in more of a east-north-east or north-east motion? :?:
Sorry, meant up through the state, not straight.
Edited by Kattbyrde (Tue Oct 18 2005 02:44 PM)
|
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 318
|
|
As usual, great post. looks better every hour.
|
stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
I know that the models are now shifting southward on the FL Peninsula and I am fine with that as I am in Central Florida. Since NOAA is sending the Gulfstream out on a sampling mission today and that data will be added to the models, it is likely that a more reliable output will be forthcoming tonight and into the morning so I think I will hold my judgement on where might be going until then, that is if it is okay with Ralph?! 
--------------------
Jara
*************************************************************
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
I agree with you there...I am trying to find information to apply to these thresholds...shear, SST's, previous intensity all are within parameters...have not calculated Max Potential, and dont know where to find the relative humidity (I would think its in the recon somewhere)...any thoughts from anyone on those last 2?
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
It appears likely that would take a NE or ENE track across the peninsula if in fact it heads that direction.
Looks like a plane will be in there in about an hour or so, which is good because there seems to have been a hiccup in available satellite imagery (I can't find anything that is less than 90 minutes old).
|
Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 10
|
|
Thanks for your input. I'm in Central Florida so a Northeast direction could have an impact.
Thanks again.
|
Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
|
|
Remember - this has potential to be a large (diameter) system. Don't just look at the line. That cannot be stressed enough!!!
|
lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
|
|
Frank, seems like is indeed on the move.... but virtually due West. More than a wobble. What say ye?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
|
evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 71
|
|
It does look like it's going due west. Any chance this thing just plows into the Yucatan and weakens, eliminating it as a threat to SWFL?
|
native
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
|
|
Well, I'm (insert any explitive here) annoyed! Wouldn't ya know...just went to Costco on Sunday and dropped a small fortune on meat/chicken/steaks/chops and such! How long does dry ice keep in a freezer??? Anywho...SFWD is now in "increased readiness" mode...what does that translate into? I'm keepin a close eye (no pun intended) on . SFWD is not going to get caught with their pants down as they did back for Georges. They've got a great sat image of her that the last frame is only about 1/2 hr old...movie format. She's looking impressive..might be my uneducated eye but, she seems to be trying/succeeding to fill in on her NW quad. www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/wcaribvismovie.html
I don't care (just as a matter of speech) where she's going...all of FL, central on south from all the way across from the GOM to the Atlantic should be preparing, regardless of 1,2 or 3 (I'm going with some others on the 3 thinking) she's going to be big (bigger than she is now) windfield wise and she's going to knock out power and such.
HankFrank - Your making me nervous...unusual for you to make such bold statements  Not looking good for somewhere in FL or the Northeast...just what they don't need...more rain. What's with the "breadcrumb" (to quote another poster) 's dropping out with the intensity? What's going on that they seem to think the shear is not going to be as much of factor that they had originally anticipated?
|
Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
OK - - starting to get concerned here in Cent FLA - - does anyone have a link to the swfwmd spaghetti plot??
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Everyone should just be patient and wait for at least the 00Z runs to come in...NOAA has a plane going out there and that data will go into the models so we can have a better definition of maybe where its going to go. It will change the models or just give us more confidence. Anyways again its 4 days away still,,,,by later Weds or Thurs,, we can pinpoint where ,, if anywhere,, landfall might happen.,.,Cedar Key- brushing south of the Keys.....we dont know yet for another day or 2. We can start making good guess after the 0Z runs tonight.
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
Most of the recent models show a short-term movement to the W or WNW, but still indicate the system will turn into the Gulf at some point and only one of the "usual suspects" (GFDL) brings the center near the Yucutan, with the others showing recurvature further east.
Looks like they are doing some satellite manuevers with GOES-12, but some imagery should be available again this atternoon with normal operations resuming tonight:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/SPBULL/MSG2902234.01.txt
|
twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 184
|
|
She's been forecasted to move west some before heading north then making that right hand turn...I believe some of the early modeling was even calling for further into Yucatan before the hard right into Fl.
History shows the majority of storms that form there this time of year do go into Fl...a half dozen or so have gone to mexico though so it isn't far-fetched that it could happen.
Tomorrow & Thurs will give a much better idea although some would say short notice...hence the continuation of the Bear watch for the Fl west coast.
|
native
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
|
|
Wingman - Didn't know that had the spaghetti map but here's the one from the Sun-Sentinel...I find that their particular site updates its information the fastest:
weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
|
Katie
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
|
|
Well..after much thought, I have decided to stay put this weekend at home. I was suppose to go to Niceville to get pictures taken and then drive home on Saturday, but I think my place is at home. Not sure where exactly she will go but, as someone mentioned earlier - depending on the size - even if she doesn't come over me, I may still get the affects.
Is there anything out there that might slow her down weaken her a bit? The waters still appear to be pretty warm out in the GOM. Just wondering.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
