Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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I think the tornados are always my main concern especially since I am not on the coast and that is why I am not sure if I should stay or leave. Tornados are my worst fear. I am just going ot wait till we get a little closer to see what side I might end up on.
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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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After Charlie - entire family - kids, grandkids, dogs, cats, etc. - decided would not stay for anything above cat 2. We live close enough to the Caloosahatchee River (1/8 mile) to be impacted by storm surge under just the right conditions. The house can probably withstand more than my nerves right now. Thanks again everyone for all you do. And thanks for the Orlando numbers!
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
Also those that think more of a west movement will bring it more north in florida that is not true it will delay it coming to florida which in turn will move it more south.Its all about the timing.The longer it stays down there the more chance it has to turn NE early.
All models agree right now with a landfall in Florida.
Is there anything that can change the recurvature to NE and keep holding the path of the storm straight to NW or N?
Can we say that TX, LA, MS and AL are pretty safe for the moment? I mean the accurancy of the models is similar forecasting a 180 degree turn than a soft change in direction of less than 90 degree ?
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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Thanks Native - hope your freezer has LOTS of food!
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zmdz01
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Simi Valley, CA
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Thunderbird12,
Did you notice the minimum pressure reading (970 mb)? Isn't 970 mb indicative of a stronger hurricane?
Marcus
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The VM ended with the words "very small wind center".
Much has been said here about the envelope size of this being greater than , which of course resembled an F3 tornado as much as a Cat 4 hurricane as far as real damaging wind coverages.
Does this comment mean that the structure of this is similar?
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doug
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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970mb is indicitive of a strong Cat 1 storm. Right now is acting like a weak cat 1, but her form is continually improving. Lets watch the pressure falls becuase that's more indicitive of what the future will bring than the wind data.
As for it moving west, it's hard to know for sure if there has been any due west movement becuase we've had so few recon's on her so far, however, her latest recon is well west of the predicted track. It will be interesting to see how tonight's models adjust for this difference - unfortunately I don't think the recon made it in time for the early evening models. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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You are correct...a CAT 2 to be more precise. However, the day is still young and we have 2 more full updates to come. Check out Brad in Miami and Margies exchanges...explainations in their posts..dry air, SST's, etc.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Not always -- pressure is a good measure of intensity, but is not always directly correlated to wind speed. The environmental pressures are lower-than-normal in the NW Caribbean, making the pressure gradient between and its environment weaker/flatter, lending itself to at least somewhat lower winds. Normally, however, 970mb would be indicative of a cat 2 hurricane -- we just don't have any data to support near that sort of intensity right now, though.
Wilma's a larger storm overall than , but with a similarly small inner core. Rapid fluctuations in intensity are possible both up and down as the outer core evolves; any tightening of that outer core would likely bring about both a period of enhanced intensification as well as a greater resileiency to negative effects in the Gulf due to shear. An impact similar to is possible, but I do not think this storm will be strengthening up to landfall, merely holding its own. I do expect it to peak at least as a major hurricane, if not a category 4 storm, as it evolves over the next two-three days.
Landfall region from two days ago of between Cedar Key and Naples still looks okay, though I'd probably shift that further south to New Port Richey to the Keys. I do anticipate this making landfall in some part of the state of Florida and not skirting through the Fl. Straits. Wave impact, due to the intensity of the storm and its fast forward speed, could be higher than expected -- and certainly much larger than the unique scenario presented by last year. Some models are calling for 18ft waves on the east side of the storm; for the populated areas along the coast, hopefully those are either not realized or felt only in the relatively unpopulated areas of the Everglades.
You'll hear a lot of comparisons between this and over the coming days. Some will be valid, others will not. Separate the two and you'll probably have a good idea as to what this storm can/will do later this week into the weekend. Be wary of the hype from the news media, particularly in the Tampa region...they mean well but sometimes take it too far. That's not to say no one should be prepared, however, anywhere from the Apalachicola area all the way around the coast to Jacksonville...and then further up the coast into New England for whatever a transitioning TC might bring in a week's time.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I have to make a correction on something I posted earlier...I said that the TS force winds extend out 120 miles from the center, and that would mean TS force winds 60 from either side.
I just watched MSNBC, FNC and a host of others who said that TS force winds extend out 240 miles from the center, meaning 120 miles on either side of the eye.
My bad...sorry for the incorrect post.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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It's too early to assess the possible tornado threat, but this particular scenario (hurricane moving NE in relatively strong SW flow) is more favorable for hurricane-spawned tornadoes than some of the previous storms this season, because the storms that would form in the outer bands would be in an environment of greater wind shear with the increasing SW flow aloft. Hurricanes don't like wind shear, but tornadoes need it to form. Even if the shear over itself isn't that strong (which is possible), the shear for the storms rotating around 's circulation would be fairly strong, particularly in the NE quadrant.
There are other aspects of tornado formation which are simply impossible to predict this far in advance. If there is a huge swath of rain well ahead of the system, then the atmosphere will be more stable and less conducive for tornado formation, but if there are peaks of sun between the outer bands, that would increase the available instability. Nobody should be overly alarmed by the tornado threat right now, but it is always a potential hazard with hurricanes.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Wow..possible cat 4 & shear & dry air aren't expected to have much affect on landfall intensity...hopefully others who don't frequent sites such as this are watching & preparing.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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This is the "intensity" part from the 5pm Discussion:
WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AHEAD OF IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE
ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.
I think it's worth mentioning that what FlaMommy posted from Dick Fletcher's Tampa Bay's 10 Weather site is noted in this discussion. What's also worth mentioning is that they are not calling for any rapid weakening before landfall...sometimes what they don't say is more important than what they DO say.
No major shift in track at this time...concentrating on the southern half of Florida.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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Ok, now i'm scared...........As of right now i live pretty far north of where the forcasted landfall is, BUT, should i worry anyway? Should i pack my family up and leave? This is what sucks about these things...and the way people talk on here, there is a better chance of hitting North of Ft Myers then where the says it may go, which is in between Ft. Myers and Naples. I am in Bradenton....what do i do? Prepare...hmmm, no budget for supplies other than what i have and definitely no $$$$ for generator or wood for windows. Someone on here said something about the Tampa Bay media hyping it up...that may be true, but i also think some on here really hype it up as well. What are the chances of this thing hitting my town? I am in the cone of error, but a good 120 miles or so north of the 5pm projected path. Any indications that will make that right turn? This is ridiculous....i think it's time to move the HELL out of Florida. Snow, sleet and freezing rain look pretty good right now.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Just about to post on this myself...well, there you go. Now they mention Cat 4 for the first time. The way they map everything out in each succeeding discussion is really an art. They are not changing the track (to come up more to the west, near the tip of the Yucatan, like some of the models), and all the stuff I posted earlier applies. They think she'll take that path that goes over the warmest pools of water. Also Franklin mentioned the dry air.
Since is moving faster than this morning, she's going to reach the first pool of warm water (at about 20N) sooner than I thought - by tomorrow evening. has her at a Cat 3 just before she gets there. The slightly more west track does take her to the west of some of the warmer water, but she'll still hit the main pool and also the warm water north of Cuba, if she stays on the track.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Tue Oct 18 2005 05:41 PM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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im in the same city as you and its wait and see.Im sure we will get something in the way of wind and some rain but the rain won't be much since its going to be fast but really all you can do is wait and see what happens come thursday as its only tuesday and who packs and leaves now is insane as you might move to where it goes.
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If your not on the coast then just bunker up the best you can. Make sure you have flashlights,water and some canned food. Don't forget the beer. Make sure you have a cooler. Fill it up with ice after the power goes out. Keep the ice in the freezer. That was my mistake. If you drink coffee fill a thermos up before the storm comes. That was another of my mistakes.
If you don't feel safe then goto a shelter.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 310
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Well if I was in Manatee county definitely stay tuned to what's goiing on. My daughter is supposed to go to an outing this weekend at Zolfo Springs, just up the road from Arcadia. has looked funny all day, kinda like when Fred heads off to the Moose lodge. But now she is beginning to get her act together. If you can, check out the last visibles before we lose them to the night. She is beginning to get that formidable look, and seems to be heading wnw, but the has her at 290 heading...guess they have the instruments to back that up.....looks more like 280 maybe. Cheers!!
Sorry, it was the water buffalo lodge 
Edited by Steve H1 (Tue Oct 18 2005 05:45 PM)
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
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Quote:
...pressure is a good measure of intensity, but is not always directly correlated to wind speed. The environmental pressures are lower-than-normal in the NW Caribbean, making the pressure gradient between and its environment weaker/flatter, lending itself to at least somewhat lower winds...
In the attached image (originally from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg ) does the line of clouds between Apalachicola and Cancun indicate a boundary between areas of differing pressure? Incidentally the line seems to be shifting slowly westward, particularly along more southern portions of it.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Let me just add a few more comments here. Obviously if a person is in the direct path of a storm, say three days out, then that person would want to make plans to evac. Evac meaning if it's a cat 3 or higher and if you are forcasted to be in or near the eyewall. Now, say you live on the outer part of the "cone of error". Common sense will tell you not to evac, three days out, because you are forcasted to only feel minor effects from the storm. Two days out, the forcasters were wrong, the thing doesn't make a big right turn and it's coming after you. Two days out, not even...how are you going to leave? Roads are juiced from the poor sob's south of you who thought they had to leave the day before....see what i am saying here folks????? If there is better than 75% chance that will NOT make the turn and hit Sarasota or Tampa or even Venice, then why have the landfall point be 150 miles south of Tampa??? Makes no sense!! Tomorrow at this time and even wed and thurs....still may not know what the heck is going on...when will there be time to evac if necessary? No time........once in the gulf is supposed to haul some butt NE. Trop Storm, Cat 1....fine, can deal with it.....cat 4 or weak cat 3.....i am outta here...but no time if the track isn't known until 24 hrs before landfall.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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