ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Well,I will say this for the record,This one scares me.I do not like what the models are showing and I do not like what the is saying.Looks like this will be much much worse for my area than .There will be alot of stress around here the next few days.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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flacameraman
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Loc: west palm beach
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There are no stupid questions, but my uneducated guess is that it would not have much impact at all, but the storm would stir it up mightily. There was a hurricane in the late twenties, that killed several thousand in the Belle Glade area, due to flooding. Because of that, they built the Herbert Hoover dike around it
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dolfinatic
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Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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I believe you are right it doesnt affect it too much. But i would think that it would slow weakening down just being over water. But not much, I think a met explained a while back that it was because the lake is so shallow it wouldnt make that big of an effect. I think i have read that here before, but could be wrong.
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Big Red Machine
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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An early look at the 00Z seems to indicate perhaps a more northerly track than previously indicated. In 66 hrs storm WSW of where the 18Z run had it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_066.shtml
Will be very interested to see the end of this run. If the track does shift north a bit, perhaps will be another storm the nails.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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and that is not ture that if it goes to the west more that it will go to central Florida as that is only his conjecture.If you look at some of the models they have it going right to the coast of the Yucatan then a sharp east turn so just because it goes more west does not 100% mean it will go more north just his opinion.Which by the way he has been wrong before he is not God.
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Jamiewx
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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The is in out to day 4 so far, looks as if it is taking more to the western side of the Yucatan Channel. Check it out here
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_slp_l_loop.shtml
hmm, frame 14 and 15 there look like thats a pretty sharp eastward turn.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
Edited by Jamiewx (Wed Oct 19 2005 12:09 AM)
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weatherwatcher2
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web page
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Quote:
OK, here's the stupid question of the day. Forgive me, but I'm still learning. Lake Okeechobee is pretty darned big. What type of impact (if any) would it have on if it were to cross right over it?
Here are some sites on that storm to help you read about what damage was done. At one point that storm had winds of 160 mph before it hit.
Link #1: http://www2.sptimes.com/weather/HG.2.html
Link #2: http://www.tommymarkham.com/Hurricane/AListPage.htm
Wilma would have to be Cat 4-5 to cause the damage that was done in 1928, but they have done some things around the Lake since then to keep this sort of event from happening again. Only time will tell if that holds true.
Wilma will be weakening as she approaches the coast. It'll probably still be a major storm, but not Cat. 4-5 (at least I hope not)
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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This is not the place to argue this out. You got a problem with me, pm me. I am ending this nowhere nonsense now. 
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FlaMommy
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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you know i was about to say something....thank you so much dolfin...i appreciate it...afterall phillips is a meteorologist....and i have faith in his prediction and explanations....well im packing my overnight bag tommorrow just in case....everyone have a great night and keep us updated...stay safe 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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ralphfl
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An early look at the 00Z seems to indicate perhaps a more northerly track than previously indicated. In 66 hrs storm WSW of where the 18Z run had it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_066.shtml
Will be very interested to see the end of this run. If the track does shift north a bit, perhaps will be another storm the nails.
the last few frames at 84 hours takes it to south florida and does not move it up as of yet.
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Thunderbird12
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Loc: Oklahoma
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I think it is important not to get too sold on the idea of moving further north in the long term if it moves further west in the short term. The features that are steering it now are not the same as the feature that will potentially turn it NE. The sharpness of the digging trough will affect whether the deep layer steering flow becomes SW or more WSW. The short-term motion likely has little to do with how that will turn out. If it moves more west and less north than expected in the short-term, that could actually make it more likely to affact areas further south, depending on how things turn out.
The recon plane should be into the center of within the hour. It'll be interesting to see what it finds. While the cloud pattern is not quite as symmetric as earlier, it still continues with exceptionally deep convection in all quadrants with a small, well-defined eye. The pressure should be substantially lower than the last report, and may even be shockingly lower.
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Margie
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
The pressure should be substantially lower than the last report
I agree...she clearly has a Cat 4 signature on satellite.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Big Red Machine
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_102.shtml
00z landfall point is maybe just a hair further north than 18Z. Will be interesting to see if it trends northward tomorrow or not. This run also brings in as a strong system, some tightly packed isobars. Also slows the storm down considerable with landfall in about 102 hrs, versus land fall in 90 hrs (which was was 18Z showed).
Interesting. Will certainly keep an eye on it tomorrow. Still feel that the models are wrong in terms of the trough, I expect a more NNE than ENE movement across the peninsula, but will have to wait and see if that bears out.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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The is only one of the models. . So we shall what the concensus is later. Also keep in mind that we are still far out and many things can happen and scenario will unfold soon enough.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
OK, here's the stupid question of the day. Forgive me, but I'm still learning. Lake Okeechobee is pretty darned big. What type of impact (if any) would it have on if it were to cross right over it?
Could be dreadful I'm afraid... In 1928 there was a great hurricane; in fact, the first ever official Category 5 hurricane. ...It was also known as the "San Felipe Segundo Hurricane". Anyway, when it made landfall in Palm Beach County it was a Category 4 hurricane. 929 mb and winds "in excess" of 150 mph! Damage along the coastline from the heavy winds and 10-foot storm surge was catastrophic; however the area was only sparsely inhabited at the time.
...Insland the storm crossed the lake...ah...with winds measured on the ground at around 140 mph. Yeah. The low pressure and south-blowing wind caused a storm surge and the resulting flood covered hundreds of square miles with water that in some places was over 20 feet deep. Houses were floated off of their foundations and dashed to pieces against any obstacle they encountered. Most survivors and bodies were washed out into the Everglades where many were never found. As the rear eyewall passed over the area the flood reversed itself, breaking the dikes along the northern coast of the lake and causing a similar but smaller flood.
Now, I wouldn't say this to frighten anyone but sometimes the reality of a situation is paramount. In addition, the dimensions of such a catastrophe are not impossible with , though we never wish such on anyone! Moreover, is a going to be much massive in aerial coverage by the time she gets to Florida, because as always...these storms expand as they evolve and also gain latitude... It is important not to focus on the pin point eye. Bottom line....I got a bad feeling here.
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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odd, it looks like the brings it really hard hard right turn south of the keys?
I'm not sure I'm buying that right now.... but
we'll see
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Clark
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I do think that the first eyewall cycle will probably help to expand out the inner core of the system, whenever that occurs. My thinking is probably sometime tomorrow afternoon. As it heads up the coast, it'll really expand...but the thought of hurricane-force winds 300mi from the center is not very enticing. Unfortunately, it's also a real possibility, depending upon the evolution of the pattern.
Starting to get worried about the potential for a cat. 5 out of this one sometime tomorrow. Cloud tops are way up there, the eye is becoming better defined on satellite imagery (i.e. clearer pinhole), and the oceanic and upper level conditions are near ideal for something major to go down. Would not be surprised to see the have to issue a special advisory package before 5a, unfortunately. Dual outflow channels and upper-oceanic heat content of 140kJ/cm^2 are pretty favorable, I'd say. Not an annular storm, but another very intense one...and if it does get to cat 5, it'll be the first season in recorded history in the Atlantic to see 3 category 5 storms.
It's going to be a good test of a theory someone I respect immensely has put forth. The dry air on the periphery may prove to be a limiting factor on initial organization, particularly in terms of dry air intrusion, but once the inner core becomes established, it can actually help to supress the outer banding features and lead to a very tight inner core that can spin up in quite a hurry. Any disruption to that inner core could of course lead to pretty substantial weakening, but as long as it maintains itself, the potential is there for intensification.
We'll have recon in a little while to tell us where the storm is at intensity-wise right now. Would not be surprised to see another major pressure fall -- even into the 920s. Better bet is something in the 930s with a very tight wind maximum. How low it gets depends upon the timing of the first eyewall cycle. Again, I do not anticipate a category 5 (or even 4) hurricane at landfall in Florida -- but I do anticipate a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in SW Florida later this week.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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clark i agree with you on all fronts with this storm.As we go on in time the cone will get smaller and we will get a idea of where it is going.
it's nice to hear someone with with logic rather then conjecture thanks.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
I do think that the first eyewall cycle will probably help to expand out the inner core of the system, whenever that occurs. My thinking is probably sometime tomorrow afternoon. As it heads up the coast, it'll really expand...but the thought of hurricane-force winds 300mi from the center is not very enticing. Unfortunately, it's also a real possibility, depending upon the evolution of the pattern.
Starting to get worried about the potential for a cat. 5 out of this one sometime tomorrow. Cloud tops are way up there, the eye is becoming better defined on satellite imagery (i.e. clearer pinhole), and the oceanic and upper level conditions are near ideal for something major to go down. Would not be surprised to see the have to issue a special advisory package before 5a, unfortunately. Dual outflow channels and upper-oceanic heat content of 140kJ/cm^2 are pretty favorable, I'd say. Not an annular storm, but another very intense one...and if it does get to cat 5, it'll be the first season in recorded history in the Atlantic to see 3 category 5 storms.
It's going to be a good test of a theory someone I respect immensely has put forth. The dry air on the periphery may prove to be a limiting factor on initial organization, particularly in terms of dry air intrusion, but once the inner core becomes established, it can actually help to supress the outer banding features and lead to a very tight inner core that can spin up in quite a hurry. Any disruption to that inner core could of course lead to pretty substantial weakening, but as long as it maintains itself, the potential is there for intensification.
We'll have recon in a little while to tell us where the storm is at intensity-wise right now. Would not be surprised to see another major pressure fall -- even into the 920s. Better bet is something in the 930s with a very tight wind maximum. How low it gets depends upon the timing of the first eyewall cycle. Again, I do not anticipate a category 5 (or even 4) hurricane at landfall in Florida -- but I do anticipate a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in SW Florida later this week.
Some interesting observations regarding the models:
GFDL,
12Z position at 126 hours: 74W/32N
18Z position at 114 hours: 75.5W/32.25N
…at first glance I too would be inclined to suggest that although this represents a left shift once leaving Florida, it may be too subtle to distinguish any significance. However, it is the overall synopsis from the Great Lakes to NNE of New England that may lend a clue.
…Which requires observing the Global models.. They have been trending deeper with trough amplification in near the upper Ohio Valley to where we now have a -3SD anomaly centered on PA, which also has an embedded potent s/w negatively tilted (ECM 12Z run). This is interesting for me after crosses Florida.. Another meteorologist who uses this site and I were hammering out the details and it appeared to us that the veering components of the winds near and off-shore the East Coast are not etched in stoned and if anything have been trending more S in time… In fact, the 12Z ECM actually fully captures and rockets her N as a transitioning hybrid monster, crossing her over Cape Cod, Down East Maine, to a 952mb low N of Caribou. … That would be a huge problem for SE Massachusetts and Down East Maine in the form of a odd-ball Nor’easter from heck! It’s an unusual scenario, admittedly, but not too implausible at this time. What is also lending confidence is that this was intuitively plausible for basic synoptic reasoning (also incorporating teleconnectors) a few day ago, so seeing a few whiffs of model guidance trending this way is a bit alarming to say the least.
I also agree with your cat-5 intimation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
…Having said that I am sure many of you are aware that the dropsondes for synoptic sampling have taking place and are expected to be initialized in the data suite in tonight’s 00Z run – do out any moment.. It will be interesting to see how the samples affect the runs; however, they are obviously not intended to indicated anything about how interacts with the westerlies, just that she may end up with a greater left component near Florida … Which of course would then have to be conserved farther N should the trough in question continue to trend deeper, veering winds more S.
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