emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Quote:
Hi there,
I am monitoring the hurricane situation from Germany and all I could only tell is, that I hope that will weaken, so it may not make such a desastrous landfall.
I am saying this, just to signalize: We all are interested that everyone of you will be umharmed by any storm ever. Just a very brief wish of good luck for all of you.
Take care and greetings from Germany.
Stefan
Very kind of you Stefan, Thanks!
I'm also worried about the turn NE. It looks so drastic. I guess we'll have to wait and see. As I said before, it's gonna be a long 3 days!
Jackie
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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When you think about a hurricane turning, you have to visualize a truck hauling a tripple wide mobile home making a 90 degree turn in a four way stop with no stoplight. It is not going to happen quickly and it is not going to be neat. The lines will be crossed and a certain amount of acreage will be borrowed on both sides. As for whether or not Sarasota Bay will or won't be effected later on. The force that was generated by while she was a CAT 5 will be felt long after she has weakened to whatever weakeness she will become. How long that lasts will depend upon how long she maintains CAT 5 status. The only thing that can be turned on or off rapidly is a Television reporter claiming to be in a CAT 5 wind making an onsight report.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Remember that in order to gather up anything but minimal storm surge, will have to maintain intensity AND enlarge her eye. As it stands right now, she hasn't been Cat 5 for very long, and has had a pinhole for an eye. A 2 or 4nm eye is not going to be able to carry much in the way of surge.
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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i have also been following this and all the other storms in the past few years and it does seem to tell that the best time to leave is about 4-6 hours before it hits. the roads seem to clear up then. but that is a risky thing to do if you are the one doing it! i live off of sr70 and i75 in lakewood ranch, and we're staying. we're pretty far inland, and hopefully no debris gets kicked around from all of the construction around here. but its just me and my wife (and our little papillon).
cross your fingers!
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Steeler Fan. There are several E/W roads worth considering.
SR 70, SR 64, SR 60 - any one will make you far better time than I-4. When I lived in Bradenton, we used to head south to SR 70 and take it across the state to avoid I-4.
My parents evacuated for last year (from Brevard) to stay with friends in Bradenton. They went South on 95 and made great time, then east on SR 70 and barely saw another living soul. Meanwhile, 95 North was a parking lot for the next dozen+ hours. I went out for a drive (getting antsy) about 4 hours before any real TS force winds. 95 was completely empty...
Just some info to consider.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I wake up...and WOW!
I don't have anything to say else on this thing. Incredible. Models will take a while to catch up with this huge change.
A few links for those that haven't quite gotten the message yet:
Recon: http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
IR Float: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/190851.shtml
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Steeler Fan
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: Sarasota, FL
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Tpratch - thanks for the advise on alternate E/W routes...also caught a later post you made regarding the eye size and storm surge (hopefully the eye will remain fairly smallish - resulting in a narrower corridor and less area being affected by a surge).
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"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle
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Marknole
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 46
Loc: Wacissa, FL
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Although the models haven't been great so far, the active SW jet forecast over the GOM makes the forecast (direction and intensity) much more plausible. (Scary yes, but way more predictable). Anyone remember Hurricane Floyd? ('99?) It was heading due west, towards Daytona. All forecasts predicted a sharp right turn. It wasn't happening, then as the center came within 40 miles of the coast, it turned on a dime.
Once the westerlies grab hold, I think we will see a more ragged, less tropical and rapidly weakening system. We've all been accused of wishcasting, but I would like to see a South-of-Marco landfall, giving the 'Glades a much needed October soaking.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Latest IR and WV frame in the loops is showing a weakening of the intensity right near the core on an east-west axis. Could be the prelude to a .
This is one beast to keep an eye on (pun not intended).
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Latest IR and WV frame in the loops is showing a weakening of the intensity right near the core on an east-west axis. Could be the prelude to a .
This is one beast to keep an eye on (pun not intended).
They also show a rather significant jog - yes, I'm calling it a jog, but a significant one - to thw WSW. It could be that when the finishes, we'll see the new eye form southwest of the old one. Or it could be that the current eye is moving out of the way so the new one can form in its old place. Nah, that would never happen. Then again, if you'd said in June that we'd have 3 cat 5 hurricanes this season, you would have been laughed at probably.
I just looked at WU"s historical plots. Nearly all major hurricanes in the vicinity of where now is ultimately hit the Florida peninsula.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:54 AM)
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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well, here we go again. From Vero Beach, FL we are starting to put our Red Cross plans into effect. senior leadership meeting later today. Early word is we'll open shelters though I expect they will be for evacuees and folks in low-lying areas here.
I'm still waiting to see if the State of FL calls me up on this one yet.
Now for my guess.....Here on the Treasure Coast I'd expect at most a minimal hurricane once crosses the state. Any mets here can shed more insight on this for me but i'd expect the front pushing on and increased shear to take her down before west coast landfall, then interaction with the land mass will take even more steam from her. So on the treasure coast I'll expect a very windy, quite wet saturday & sunday with TS winds posibbly minimal Cat1.
For some real good info, tune into our local EM guy at www.irces.com. Nathan McCollum gives a real good view and explanation of what's going on. I am hoping that his report today will echo my guesses here.
Anyone wanna take bets on how about back into the Atlantic and intensifying again? The way this season is going, anything can happen!
Emergency Management Rule #1: "If you care more about your things and property than you do about your life and the lives of your family then you will die". If you think that maybe you should evacuate....then YOU SHOULD!
all, stay dry......stay safe
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Per the 8am ET advisory, the recon information has been confirmed. - with a central pressure now down to 882 - is the most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin.
Maximum winds have maintained at near 175mph.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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Interesting note. If makes landfall in Florida then every state on the Gulf Coast will have been affected by a storm that
reached cat 5 status this season, those storms being , , and . The states affected-TX, LA, MS, AL, and FL.
FL felt some effects from also but looks like she will have a direct impact on the state.
Rita followed closely behind and now we have at Cat 5 less than a month after . Lots of records this season.
Let's hope this is the last big hurricane of the season.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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This is going to be a very interesting buoy to watch. She may track dead center right over it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=EST
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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This is going to be a very interesting buoy to watch. She may track dead center right over it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=EST
I wonder where she'll deposit it? (have to have some humor in this nightmare).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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meranto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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882 mbar. How far will it go???
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Still too early to tie down a landfall point. Would suggest keeping eyes open from the Keys to Tampa. My thought is that the windfield will expand prior to landfall. Cat 2 seems to be most likely with enough forward speed to maintain Cat 2 to high Cat 1 in a very rapid Charliesque transit of the state. This is not a Charlie, though. There should not be a very intense storm, however, the wind field will be much larger. I am still not sold that the trough and front will push in quite as fast as what is being forecast. Should start to have that clear up later today and tonight. By tomorrow night, unless does something odd, I think the forecast should be able to narrow a bit. Does not take a whole lot to cause a 80-150 mile error this far out. At least she won't be a monster when she gets to Florida.
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Jim
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Let's hope this is the last big hurricane of the season.
I *really* don't think the wants to retire the names Alpha, Beta, and/or Gamma... but based upon the way things are going, it may happen. The water should have cooled down some - it IS October, isn't it? So, the intensity should have peaked in terms of monster storms, but conditions appear to be just regenerating.
The first visible imagery for is available... LOOK at that thing...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
incredible.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 19 2005 12:12 PM)
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nicolew
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Quote:
Interesting note. If makes landfall in Florida then every state on the Gulf Coast will have been affected by a storm that
reached cat 5 status this season, those storms being , , and . The states affected-TX, LA, MS, AL, and FL.
FL felt some effects from also but looks like she will have a direct impact on the state.
Rita followed closely behind and now we have at Cat 5 less than a month after . Lots of records this season.
Let's hope this is the last big hurricane of the season.
Take it from someone in Miami-Dade County - we felt more than just "some effects" from - no power for a week, trees down all over and leaks in roofs!
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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As stupid as this may sound myself and my entire family are flying to Miami on Saturday morning for a Sunday cruise. I keep trying to figure out the wind field forecast and the potential for a flight cancellation...seems rather petty given the situation. Best I can figure we'll be okay so long as we get into Miami before around 6pm... If we don't we're going to try for Orlando and drive...
God help us.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
882 mbar. How far will it go???
Just noting that this was confirmed in the 8am Advisory.
--RC
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