meranto
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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As stupid as this may sound myself and my entire family are flying to Miami on Saturday morning for a Sunday cruise. I keep trying to figure out the wind field forecast and the potential for a flight cancellation...seems rather petty given the situation. Best I can figure we'll be okay so long as we get into Miami before around 6pm... If we don't we're going to try for Orlando and drive...
God help us.
If flights will be cancelled at Miami chances are far from remote that flights to Orlando will be cancelled as well. I think it doesn't really matter where you fly, it all depends on the further evolution of this monster, the forecasts have way too much uncertainty at this time. You probably will not have a good judgement before 1 day before landfall.
Maybe driving wouldn't be a great idea, concidering that the coastline may have faced an evacuation by then. Evacuating states are generally not know for their "easy driving" potential, especially not Florida
Btw, lekker hoor ff met een cruise, tis gewoon dikke pech dat dat ding er nu zit.
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: apopka
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As to the cruise, the airport in Orlando closes when winds are expected to be 50 mph or higher. I might worry about the cruise being cancelled depending on the track. I left out of Port Canaveral the day was hitting S. Florida. We were the only Carnival ship in Florida to leave as they closed Port Everglades and Miami that day. Keep calling the cruise lines. The good thing is if you do get out, the ships are really stable. We had 10 foot waves out of Port Canaveral but didn't feel much at all.
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bobbutts
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Loc: New Hampshire
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Re: cruises
Here's my advice.. Stay away from FL until this thing passes. We need the roads and hotels. Lives are at stake so try and put your family vacation into that perspective.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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If the GDFL holds true its not as bad as some may think of course this is 1 model.THE NEW 06 just out GDFL shows the same hit area as last 4 runs which is about punta Gorda as a strong cat 2.Now it may not weaken that much but you got to rememeber they can go down as fast as up.NOBODY should let there guard down but there is hope on the other side of the tunnel.
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Oct 19 2005 01:06 PM)
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SMOKE
Weather Watcher
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Loc: USA, Ga.
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IMHO .. flights from MIA and ORL will be CNX due to the storm and obviously connecting flights will be delayed. ARTCC Atlanta, Jacksnville and Miami will be coordinating the delays.
BTW, the crew debrief to the storm and it's power .... WOW to a man. Experienced crew too. They were very impressed with it's characteristics, small eye, steep pressure profile and strong winds.
"There I was at five thousand feet" .....
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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My suggestion is to check with your cruise line. Odds are good that there will be flight cancelations. Airports may be open; but the airleines will preemptively cancel the flights to avoid having their equipment in danger. Your cruise ship will likely be delayed. It will probably be out at seas an extra day or two on the trip before and will not be able to come in until the storm passes. Be flexible.
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Jim
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Yes...I mentioned yesterday that she'd be going right over it. Windspeeds are about the same as last night but wave heights already doubled, up to 12 feet. Will probably see 70 ft waves before it stops sending back data. The eyewall is still so small (hurricane force winds still only a 30nm diam) that it's not that likely she'll see the highest winds.
Good morning -- haha -- just got up in a stupor from my 2-hour nap and can't believe things are just the same as they were at 5am. Gotta go get ready for work. This is still so unreal...almost more so in the light of day. A few of us here on the board went through what you could say was a very strange experience last night, tracking . We also probably set a record...related to posts. A lot of them. Also probably the most posts with "wow" that you'll ever see. We ran out of adjectives. Enjoy catching up and reading them.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Lets keep it on the weather all,, we talk about the same stuff every storm about airports,roads, etc. Those are more for the FOXNEWS and CNN boards. TY
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keystonelight
Registered User
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If it were me in your shoes..I'd try to keep with my vacation plans. There are plenty of hotels in this state so it's not like your going to be taking someone else's bed..and if you do get caught in the middle of this thing, you will at least be in Orlando or Miami - on the side of the state opposite the side where landfall is going to be...but that's just what I would do...I take my vacations seriously.
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Mag
Registered User
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Loc: Merritt Island, Fl
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I just moved to Florida from Long Island. On its current path what can be expected in Cocoa Beach?
I just joined the site, my wife thinks that I am insane, as I was up almost all night on this site. It is by far the best Hurricane site out of the 1000's that are out there.Thanks
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Storms I Have Been Through
David, Gloria, Bob, Wilma, Fay
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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Good morning everyone...although dont think i would say "Good"...whats the latest on ....i just woke up and still not functioning enough to read all 14 pages...im in shock as is everyone else....can someone please fill me in...thanks becky 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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From Monroe County EMS - 9:00am (The Keys)
mandatory Evac of all Visitors
Edited by Wingman51 (Wed Oct 19 2005 01:35 PM)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Quote:
I just moved to Florida from Long Island. On its current path what can be expected in Cocoa Beach?
I just joined the site, my wife thinks that I am insane, as I was up almost all night on this site. It is by far the best Hurricane site out of the 1000's that are out there.Thanks
Welcome, I live in Melbourne. Suntree to be exact. The truth is we don't know yet what to expect. It will all depend on whether or not she goes north, south or over us. Just keep updated!
BTW, right now the models have her going under us. That would give us the weaker side.
Edited by emackl (Wed Oct 19 2005 01:40 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Just looked at the first visual sat image. Noted some interesting things about 's appearance. The hurricane-force windfield must have generated outward. We'll find out from the buoy. Also the slight shear is making for a very strange-looking effect over the now almost-uniformly-flat ; almost as if she's a cinnamon roll coated with icing.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Sorry if this is off topic but I just noticed that there are over 1000 people viewing the site. I think this storm has lots of people unnerved. Honestly, this site really helps put things in perspective though. It's a great way to stay informed while learning alot.
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evergladesangler
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The 06Z has winds dropping to 96 knots and then amping up to 103 knots at landfall. Given the cooler water off SWFL and the westerly shear is this realistic?
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meranto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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The cloud tops show a warming trend, but the eye has not become any larger or smaller, in fact, it still looks very good. The warming cloudtops however may be the end of the intensification process. Maybe a final decrease in pressure will be found in the 15Z advisory, but after that I think this bad lady will weaken.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Well, I must post a comment on all those non believers and to those who take it upon themselves to graveyard my previous posts about gaining CAT 5 strength, what do all of you say now. We now have the most intense hurricane ever, surpassing gilbert of 1982. 882MB
So I take credit in calling this, and those who didn't believe it, well you should better understand the patterns at hands, and the enviroment that surrounds these storms.
The Force
i say... gilbert was in 1988. -HF
Note It was graveyarded because it belonged in the forecast lounge, as stated more than once previously. This does too, in fact.
Edited by MikeC (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:24 PM)
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mempho
Verified CFHC User
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Hi everyone...I've been a long-time (3 year) lurker on the site and, first of all, the community is amazing and has quite a few bright minds.
I would like to add a question, however. It seems to me that, given the pressure and the eye diameter, that the windspeeds must far exceed 175 mph. For instance, had an eye that was many multiples larger than s, she had a higher central pressure, and yet, the max. sustained winds are the same. If I understand history correctly, intensely low pressures with small diameter eyewalls correlate to extremely high windspeeds such as those in Camille. Another storm that comes to mind is Tropical Cyclone Tracy that hit Darwin, Australia (which is thought to have been a strong 5). My thought is that the hurricane hunters were simply unable to find the core of the strongest winds in the storm due to the diffculty of taking measurements within an extremely small (and violent) eyewall.
Thoughts and opinions....could I be wrong here?
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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The 06Z has winds dropping to 96 knots and then amping up to 103 knots at landfall. Given the cooler water off SWFL and the westerly shear is this realistic?
A common mistake in looking at the is those are not surface winds. The surface winds are 15-25 % lower than shown. That would make it approximately 83 knots at landfall just south of Fort Myers. The amazing thing about the is that it doesn't loose any power crossing the state and exiting between Melbourne and Vero at 84 knots!
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