Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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How about the luck I got.
I was having new hurricane apnels made for my house & they just happened to install them yesterday. I'm missing a few, but that only leaves 2 windows 50% covered.
Is it true the hurricane winds only extend out 15 miles? At a storm travelling 15 mph, at least its not a prolonged event.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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But let's remember that weakening is a relative term. It will undergo a couple of s during the next few days, but it will still be a formidable storm when it makes landfall, so don't let your guard down. Weakening to a Cat 4/3 at landfall is nothing to sneeze at, and the Orlando met saying a few showers and breezy over the weekend is a foolish statement to make at this point.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Force...you took credit last night, and we've (you've) discussed this "graveyard" deal for at least an hour last night. Now it's REALLY dead, okay? Pat yourself on the back for a job well done, and move on to what's happening now.
We have more to be concerned with than what you were or weren't right about 3 days ago, okay? For the sake of those who are in the "cone", would you please move on?
I kindly thank you in advance.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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never said to let it down but the GDFL pains a cat 2 at landfall so there is hope.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Just looked at the 06Z , appears to have also shifted slightly north. And before I hear from some of you, is also run at 06Z and 18Z from the FNMOC.navy.mil website.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Good question! I think I heard the answer earlier on CNN: their met said that the windspeeds may have been much higher than 175, but the plane wasn't there to record it. So, you may be absolutely correct.
And let me tell ya something: I'm not all that sure that I really WANT to know what the highest wind speeds were that the planes missed! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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A question for my brother who has a Naples condo 1/2 mile from the ocean. He says the elevation is 11'. Any flooding problems for him?
Thanks.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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HanKFranK
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if anybody is wondering what the labor day hurricane might have looked like... there's probably your answer. i'll reuse the analogy that is a midget super hurricane embedded in a large tropical storm. it shouldn't be able to maintain that profile--i'd expect to eyewall cycles result in a much weaker but broader wind field over the next day or so. there's just no way that structure can hold up for long. thelittle inner core has really been zipping around inside the center... i guess it's easy to make cycloidal loops when the pinhole eye is only 2-5 miles wide.
down the road has brought the terminal track off the northeast well left, now showing a solid hit on the maine coast. will be telling if the still has the storm impacting new england. the 00Z euro actually sent it further out to sea as it has it loitering an extra day in the caribbean and not catching the early trough connection.
the forecast modeling in the short term is clustering on a more south florida track, in particular the naples area. i'm going to keep my window north of there for now, but the early consensus has come together a bit south of where i was expecting. very sharp recurvatures like the one depicted aren't uncommon in the historical database, so there is a precedence for what is shown.
the saturday-monday period looks to be a historic one in terms of hurricane impact.
HF 1413z19october
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ralphfl
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you are correct it did move very little north and its on the psu site as well why would anyone say anything about that?
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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WILMA'S THREAT TO FLORIDA'S TREASURE COAST
Here's a funny one from Accuweather: I thought the Treasure coast was from Vero Beach to Stuart!!!!!!!!!!!
Accuweather.com forecasters are calling Hurricane a dangerous Category 5 storm, with winds packing 175 mph.
Wilma is expected to lose strength, falling to a Category 3 storm before making landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast on the weekend. It is expected to pack the same power had when it slammed into the U.S. in August, killing more than 1,200 people.
Wilma's path will likely threaten areas that were devastated by Hurricane . The Category 4 storm was the first of the six hurricanes that have struck Florida since August 2004.
Supermarkets and building supply stores in the Sunshine State are stocked with extra food, water, ice and other supplies in anticipation of a rush by residents. Florida's Department of Emergency Management reminds Floridians living in the Keys and the peninsula to make sure that their family disaster preparedness plans are completed during the next few days.
Sorry, I highted the area of the paragraph that said treasure coast, but it disappeared. It said s path would likely threaten the Treasure Coast areas devastated by ! The Treasure coast didn'
t even get touched by !
Edited by Steve H1 (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:23 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Quote:
i'm going to keep my window north of there for now, HF 1413z19october
how far north is your window hf?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Morning all, does not seem as if I missed much, took a little snoozer and I give up being amazed this year or with , 10:17, still Cat 5 Amazing!!!!! Was there an at all?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Accuweather likes to toot its own horn too much. The guy they have on the national news shows is annoying and egotistical. The shows a 2 at landfall. There's no reason to cause a panic yet.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Well I guess JB gets an "F" for geography. Also, didn't bother to mention that most of those 1200 died from the levy breaches; oops?
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
Force...you took credit last night, and we've (you've) discussed this "graveyard" deal for at least an hour last night. Now it's REALLY dead, okay? Pat yourself on the back for a job well done, and move on to what's happening now.
We have more to be concerned with than what you were or weren't right about 3 days ago, okay? For the sake of those who are in the "cone", would you please move on?
I kindly thank you in advance.
Thanks Colleen.......well said.
Good Morning everyone. It was a surprise to wake up to the news of the strength and intensity of this morning.
Now is not the time to pat ourselves on the back for our forecasts or brag about ourselves.
Now is the time for those of us who live in the Florida Peninsula to make our preparations for a strong and dangerous hurricane.
During the next day or so please carefully review your hurricane plans and do what you need to do in order to protect your life and property as best you can.
The track of over the state is still not certain. It looks as if it will cross in the Naples / Ft. Meyers area over Lake Ochechobee as it transits the state. However, as we know all too well from past experiences, tracks can and do change so if you live anywhere from the Keys to Cedar Key please be aware of the future track of this of course is especially true if you are on or along the coast.
The saying "prepare for the worst and Hope for the Best" is good advice for all of us.
Thank you Mod's and Mets who help make this a great sight for all of us.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Lake,, plz give out the link to the 6z plz,,,not just the website so most can find it, like me. I dont have the link to it anymore. TY
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mempho
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
I'm not all that sure that I really WANT to know what the highest wind speeds were that the planes missed!
Yes, sometimes ignorance is bliss. 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Just heard this on CNN...and I think it can be verified by looking at how big this storm has gotten: Hurricane force winds extend out 30 miles across (15 on each side) and TS force extend 300 miles across, 150 miles on either side. It doesn't look that big until they zoom in on it, that's when it gets your heart racing.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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It's possible that the winds were (are) stronger than 175 mph... unfortunately, they did not get any good surface wind obs from any dropsondes into the eyewall during the last visit. They were using the standard 10% reduction from FL winds at 700mb. Dropsondes from the plane that was in there before the last one were showing surface winds very similar to the flight-level winds, so if that profile persisted, the surface winds may have been more in the 165 knot range. Given the very unusual structure of the system, the "by-the-book" reduction of flight-level winds may not have been appropriate, but it was all we have to go on.
Cloud tops have warmed a fair amount, but the overall organization still looks healthy. For the sake of posterity, I wouldn't mind if it holds near whatever it bottomed out at (the pressure was still falling like a rock when the recon plane left, so who knows how low the pressure got) until the next plane gets in there, and then I hope the inner core falls apart, which is bound to happen at some point soon.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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We won't know the real window until it makes its first move NE'wrd. A local met said wisely it is really a matter of hours, in that an hour or two difference makes a huge difference on land fall in this instance because once it goes it will come to the coast like a watermelon seed being shot out between your fingers..
so if the turn is delayed an hour for example..it could eat up about 30 miles of coast line. The point is the entire cone is under the gun in about 80-90 hours, and any reasonable certainty in land fall will be ascertained probably on Thursday Morning.
This is just a very dynamic situation and all the parts have not fallen into place yet. I am not sure even these latest runs have fully factored in the intensity changes in the storm; one would think they had...but...how long the storm keeps the intensity will also impact what is approaching from the west. So later runs will keep refining this.
Also the steering ahead of the trough looks pretty steep South to North to me, so that while may be pushed generally eastward it will be travelijng more northward at the same time or a NE rather than ENE turn is possible. Again intensity at the time of convergence will be a factor here.
All points along the coast probably from Pinellas/ Pasco south should be ready to move quickly.
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doug
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