vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Hi,
Being a newbie here (posting, I have lurked around since 2 years) I would very much appreciate some expert opinions on the following:
I live in New Smyrna Beach, just south of Daytona, and hurricane was very bad for us: a tornado ripped through my neighbor's house and we had major damage (my family spend two quite frightening hours in a walk-in-closet). Now it does look that is taking very much a -like course, except that it is bigger and stronger. Some comments here stated that might not even loose any strength at all while crossing the Florida Peninsula. So my question is:
What kind of threat is Volusia County looking at? Could this be a + hurricane?
We have the option of evacuating to Orlando on Sat. morning to a sturdier house but that would put us closer to the hurricane. What should we do?
Many thanks!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Still waiting on the 06Z link at the site.........
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Maybe its going to do another Mitch, Florida could only hope, and plow into central america... it's appears to be moving towards the SW or WSW on the vis loops... its not going W or WNW by no means.... strange
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The central pressure forecast by the corresponds more with a category 3 storm. I'm not a big fan of the wind output. The model does suggest that will grow quite a bit in size.
As others have alluded to, there is a chance that there could be significant interaction with a mid-latitude system to its west in the longer range, which could result in a very strong low pressure system which may or may not still have tropical characteristics affecting New England. Such things are very difficult to forecast, though, and Florida will have to deal with this first.
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Lsr1166
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Tallahassee, Florida
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From the 11:00 am advisory
...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.
...
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Ronn
User
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
Maybe its going to do another Mitch, Florida could only hope, and plow into central america... it's appears to be moving towards the SW or WSW on the vis loops... its not going W or WNW by no means.... strange
Wilma has been doing small cyclonic loops and stair-stepping all morning. This is very common, especially in storms with small eyes. Average motion is still WNW.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Something to remember for those of us inland or on the east coast of FL is the tornado threat. I found this information,
"Hurricanes making landfall along the southern coast of the United States and recurving northeastward are more likely to produce tornadoes than those that make landfall along the east coast or those that make landfall along the southern coast but do not recurve".
It's a very interesting report. If you want to read it, it is a PDF format. Here's the link:
http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/verboutetal05b.pdf
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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there is no way this is moving WNW looking at the vis sat loops at the moment.... now maybe its going to resume that motion shortly, and this is but a brief wobble to the WSW or SW... but WNW... not from the loops I'm looking at....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Check out this WV loop...look at the feature just of the NC coastline...looks like it is about to enter the Atlantic. If that happens, wouldn't it then be plausible thinking that will get a little further west before she is able to begin to make that turn? Or am I just losing it? 
WV Loops
Also, the two features that were players in the Western do not look like they will be able to combine, as it appears that the Gulf of Alaska feature that has now moved in is further north than the one that started in CA and is now near the midwest, which, btw, looks like it's going at a pretty good clip :
West WV LOOPS
Also: here's one that show the ENTIRE U.S.:
Entire Picture of the US
If you put these all together, it appears to me that this storm will likely make landfall further north than now anticipated.
Then again, I'm not a met, so I'm not really sure what ALL of these different features show.
Please feel free to enlighten me. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ronn
User
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
there is no way this is moving WNW looking at the vis sat loops at the moment.... now maybe its going to resume that motion shortly, and this is but a brief wobble to the WSW or SW... but WNW... not from the loops I'm looking at....
Yes, it should resume the WNW motion shortly. It did the same thing about three hours ago. Averaged out over six hours of time, the motion is still WNW.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Does it look like 's eyewall is breaking down on the last few frames of the IR loop?
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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yeah I agree, I think its at the bottom of the loop right now looking at the vis loops... I don't think I've ever seen such an exaggerated cyclonic loop that is exhibiting at the moment..
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Thunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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More north is not good... How large is this thing? Can it cover the entire state of FL.?
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Scott,
Sorry just stepped away from computer. Click on the Following: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logout.do?requestId=1126908274163.1786.1
Click on Public Charts no User ID Required, click on appropriate Map
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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The updated track shows a slight adjustment to the north as it crosses FLorida. Basically, the 5 a.m. had going over the south shore of Lake Okechobee. Now it has it going over the north shore.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Quote:
Averaged out over six hours of time, the motion is still WNW.
That's right, I've got the plots and it's moved WNW over the last 6 hours.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I don't think it's breaking down, I think it may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Like it has been said many times here, it is very hard for a storm to maintain the intensity that had for a long period of time.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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misunderestimator
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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The one thing that , , and have in common was the incredibly fast intensification. In all cases, this seems to have taken both the and the very smart people on this board by surprise. It seems like yesterday, y'all were saying "maybe this will be a Cat 3" and then within 12 hours it is a Cat 5 monster. I remember the same surprising run-up with . So...why is it that the intensification models and all of the experts were so wrong?
This should not be taken as a slight on the models or experts, I'll repeat that I am in awe of the 's ability to get the cone "right" 3 or even 5 days out for these unpredictable forces of nature...but they seem to be off in predicting intensity.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Sorry, that's what I meant, just used the wrong words...
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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The track is north of original track and slightly south of the Accuweather track. The models have been in agreement since last night and show a path right around the same general area as the and Accuweather.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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