emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Actually, at 11:00 am yesterday they mentioned it: "A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX..."
Not sure if they expected what we got though..LOL!
Edited by emackl (Wed Oct 19 2005 03:22 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ty Lake for that,, I use to have it back in the days but lost it. I use to use that for my quick run I liked to use.
Speaking of the 6z your right,,its back near FT MYERS..to Vero Beach..
12z coming in now,,and thru 72hrs,, its still in gulf but might be heading towards Sarasota? Will find out in 10-15 min.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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eyewall breakdown? not likely, as it is common for the cloud tops to warm as it gets later into daylight
Also, Mitch is not a good example to use for a northward turn not happening--Mitch was forecast to go much further west (even during the northward part) then , and Mitch was forecast to go WNW-NW, not NNW-NE
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Looking at the WV loop it appears that the "connection" between the Alaska low and the one over what was the NV/CA line is not going to happen.
The CA/NV low is moving ENE, and is now over central Colorado. The ridging looks pretty weak and getting weaker - the forecast for it to collapse looks to be verifying.
The second impulse of energy is now over roughly Oregon, and is clearly not going to "catch" the first one. So the "merged trough" scenario looks like its down the chute, and we're going to get amplification - as I expected - instead.
The models have responded to this by turning more towards the north after it exits the peninsula, with the "endpoint" of the most recent run now impacting squarely on the Maine coast, and 100kt winds just off the coast at impact (!) This forecast predicts tropical storm force winds from basically Mobile all the way up the atlantic seaboard starting at 00Z on the 23rd.
I still think the track is perhaps a bit south - but not by much. I also believe that given the evolving pattern above there is a significant risk of a "raking" storm that runs up the seaboard while remaining offshore, eventually phasing with the front and producing a hellacious coastal storm event in the Northeast.
The big story on this one may not be the impact on Florida - although that certainly looks to be significant - it may be what happens up the seaboard a couple of days later......
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Genesis, given what you're saying, is it fair to say the further west she goes now the further north landfall in FL should be?
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Loc: Osceola County
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I literally did a spit take when I saw the numbers this morning. I'm a tad worried - my parents are on a week-long cruise, which was already diverted from the west caribbean to the east caribbean. I'm supposed to be picking them up at 8am Sunday in Ft Lauderdale, heh.
This has been a damned amazing season.
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[witty phrase here]
Edited by leetdan (Wed Oct 19 2005 03:30 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Yes, I saw that too and that is why I posted those WV loops earlier.
Our local NBC met just said that once emerges into the GOM, it is quite likely it will expand even more than it has now, quite possibly covering the entire peninsula of Florida. There's a happy thought, huh?
What I also found interesting whas that at 8am (or pm) Saturday it is forecasted to be a 4, and 24 hours later it is going to be in the open Atlantic as a 2. So what the heck are we supposed to get windwise?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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orlandocanewatcher
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: E Central Florida
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I sure hope not....coming further North that is....let's all just wish it south of the Keyes right through the straights....not that it is likely but clearly the best scenario for all of us ! 
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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What worries me is the speed. Glad she'll be gone sooner but by the time we know her intentions she'll be coming in so fast. I'm worried many people will wait to long to make plans. Especially if they're watching that black line that we all know to not watch.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The eye is really starting to bounce around and the system seems to be losing some convective symmetry, so an could be imminent.
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Spring Hill FL
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How would the currently projected sharp right turn affect surge? Common sense tells this layman that a Cat 5 surge being pushed in one direction would likely dissipate considerably with the kind of turn and weakening the models are showing. , , all came ashore in a relatively straight path from the Cat 5 status, with just a slight NE jog to all of them toward the end. However, if the models are right with , I have a problem seeing that Cat 5 surge lasting through such a sharp turn. Other thoughts?
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pinellas County
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Does this mean that the folks here in the St Pete/Tampa area can breath a sigh of relief?
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: SW FL
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Wilma is certainly appears to be going through an . , IR, and WV all show a less intense storm. There are, however, large convective bands starting to spiral around the again, probably starting the expansion of the windfield that people have been predicting would happen to the small core of extremely fast winds. If it completes this before it leaves the perfect conditions required for a cat 5, then it may become a large cat 5 like or , but its unlikely.
Wilma is also going through the cyclonic loops that someone already said. It's been through one already and is finishing an even larger one. Thats what causing its current motion to look SW or even S. I suspect in the next few frames it will turn E, then N and finally back to NW. So far the southen track is a jog, but we need to keep our eyes on it. It could be the brake us in S. FL need.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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With regards to not enough time to prepare; what the hell are people waitng for. You should know what you're going to do and when you're going to do it. It's a lot of work, but not brain surgery. Err on the side of caution.
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OcalaKT
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
Does this mean that the folks here in the St Pete/Tampa area can breath a sigh of relief?
I wouldn't think yet. You are still in the cone. Until she turns, I don't think anybody should consider themselves out of the woods! Remember Charlie last year. It was thought he was going into Tampa, and then hit south of there.
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Myles
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Loc: SW FL
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NO ONE CAN BREATHE A SIGH OF RELIEF! All of Florida is under the gun. Just like (Which this is not!) a hurricane can make an unpredicted turn into a different place then expected. Even a small jog a couple hundred miles from the coast could make a HUGE difference in where this thing comes ashore. Relief comes when you see that it has made landfall somewhere else, unless you are where it made landfall.
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pinellas County
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I all so well remember , everyone here ran to Orlando to only experience the storm over there. What are the currents looking like that are suppose to curve the storm?
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Saw the JB "free" post today. He is saying much bigger windfield than , but obviously not as intense at the center. He also believes that it will move slower across Florida than currently progged, even slower than he thought yesterday, probably with the idea of the negatively tilted trough having it lag behind the "pull". He thinks it will exit near Cape Canaveral Sunday night though, then a growing likelihood of a party in the NE. We'll see. 
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debwire
Registered User
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Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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I'm wondering the same thing. Maybe it's my imagination, though, but the models appear to have landfall occurring more north than previous, putting the Tampa Bay area more at risk. Even our strike probabilities have increased (and will continue to increase I suppose as gets closer to Florida)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/191439.shtml
Am I seeing this correctly? (Yes, I realize it's too early to tell, but the path doesn't appear to be as far south anymore).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145238.shtml?5day?large
and
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL242005mltsth.gif
and
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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checking out the early runs of the and ,,,,,The I cant get updated more then 72 hrs out,, but by then its near its 6z run maybe heading slightly more NE towards Sarasota, but hard to tell....GFS is out only 42 as of this,, it actually is much further west then its previous runs making a landfall just south of Cancun....I think this model is alittle slow but is correct in being more w towards Cancun, I think it might go just N though as its alittle too far south, time will tell and hopefully I can see more of the soon enough.
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