Wxwatcher2
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St Pete Bill,
No one can "breathe a sigh of relief" just the opposite, you should be making plans to protect life and property.
Tomorrow we will know more than today but as it looks now, I am not sure that the turn will be as far south as is currently forecast. My gut feeling is the Tampa Bay are is very much still under a very real threat.
Look at the "cone" it basicly covers most of the fla penninsula.
Please prepare.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Given the eye looping cyclically (which is doing wonders for my Calculus class, it's a good project, albeit unfortunate, for them to work on), I'm inclined to think the eye is going to slide just south of the next forecast point.
I'm going off the GOES floater's tropical prediction points in saying that, but she does appear that she's going to slip just barely south. Not sure if that's all due to the eye bouncing, or if it's a slight trend, but it could also factor into the idea that the models edged north a little. If the eye slips just south of the prediction point, doesn't that imply that the northward turn is being slightly delayed, which in turn may predict a higher northern crossing point in FL?
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Londovir
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ftlaudbob
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Seems to me they are backing off a bit about loosing alot of punch before she hits fl.Max Mayfield seemed to hint it could be a cat 4 at landfall.Man.is this thing growing in size or what!!
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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mempho
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
How would the currently projected sharp right turn affect surge? Common sense tells this layman that a Cat 5 surge being pushed in one direction would likely dissipate considerably with the kind of turn and weakening the models are showing. , , all came ashore in a relatively straight path from the Cat 5 status, with just a slight NE jog to all of them toward the end. However, if the models are right with , I have a problem seeing that Cat 5 surge lasting through such a sharp turn. Other thoughts?
I would doubt that it is pushing a -type surge anyway. Large eyewalls and large geographic storms tend to push more water than their windspeeds and pressure would indicate. was a small (almost midget) hurricane. Storm surge was not as bad with as it would have been had it been a typical Cat 4 in structure.
Of course, did not have surge momentum either due to its rapid intensification prior to hitting land.
Coveresly, landed as a Cat 3 but pushed a borderline Cat 4/5 surge onto Perdido Key straddling the Alabama/Florida line. In addition, did have the surge momentum of its prior long-lived Category 5 status.
Camille was a strong, small hurricane that did have surge momentum. In addition, it actually hit as a 5. Its surge was in the 20-25 feet range. Contrast that with , which also had surge momentum, but was geographically very large producing a larger surge than Camille. That larger surge translated into a larger surge momentum which did not , unfortunately, have enough time to dissapate prior to hitting shore. The surge on will be 30+ ft.
So, you are correct in that a sharp turn would greatly affect the surge momentum. So, the main question will be how strong will it be and how long will it be that strong after it makes the turn. Also, will an cause a larger eye? These are the questions that we must ask.
I would also like to not neglect the fact that the "angle of attack" to the shoreline is very important. If I had to guess, (and this is only a guess) I would say that the surge is in the 18-20' range with this storm (which, of course, is still terrible).
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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GFS pretty much stalls or drifts around Cancun for 36hrs from 36hrs out -72hrs....I dont see that happening but agree with it thru its first 36hrs will approach Cancun.
Edited by scottsvb (Wed Oct 19 2005 04:07 PM)
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Thunderbird12
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The 12Z shows a significant departure from its previous runs and all other previous guidance, basically plowing WNW right into the Yucutan peninsula in about 30 hours, and then stalling it over the northern Yucutan for the next 48 hours after that. I haven't seen anything past 78 hours yet.
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Genesis
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Genesis, given what you're saying, is it fair to say the further west she goes now the further north landfall in FL should be?
Not necessarily.
That's the common logic, but its not necessarily correct.
The more important factor is the shape of the trough that will steer to the North and East. If the amplification REALLY cranks and produces an inverted trough at the outset, you'd get a very much poleward motion. On the other extreme, a "flat" trough would tend to produce a nearly-eastward motion.
Neither is likely - what's more likely is what the seems to have latched onto, which is a normally-shaped trough that gets amplified and approaches inversion towards the end of the forecast period, "capturing" the system. This leads to a near-due-north track at the impact in Maine.
The problem here is that small changes in the shape of the trough and in the exact time when the amplification comes in make for huge differences with this storm because it is going to be moving so fast and as such this interaction is going to be very, very hard to forecast with accuracy. As a result if you're off by a few hours you could see a 50nm - or more - move in terms of where it goes in along Florida, and a 100nm or more difference in the track up the eastern seaboard! This could make the difference, for instance, between an impact at Maine and one on Long Island.
By this point I'd usually be making some kind of call within ~50nm, with a three to four-day window before expected approach. In this case I am nowhere near confident enough to do that, and the appears to be equally concerned, along with various emergency planners. This is why they're kicking tourists out of the Keys - it COULD go that far south - and those people as far north as Cedar Key need to be paying attention, because it COULD come up that far.
My personal belief, given the WV and expected pattern evolution is that somewhere between Sarasota and Tampa is the most likely path, but I could easily be wrong on this one, and were I in the Keys I'd be getting out now. Were I anywhere from Clearwater south I'd be ready to go, with shutters ready to go up and the truck locked and loaded, so that if it looks to be coming my way I can run on 6 hours notice.
I don't think anyone from Cedar Key to the Keys can relax..... it'll likely be Friday before we have a good handle on exactly what the direectional steering is going to look like, and thus, where its going to hit.
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Steve H1
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That could be big, if it does go into the Yucatan and weakens before being pick up by the trough. Think its gonna happen Scott? On its current path, it could very well happen. That could be a saving grace for the sunshine state. We can hope 
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pinellas County
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Yesterday Denis Phillips the met at Tampa's ABC Action News said that he did not trust the south track at all, he actually kept stressing his point. I suppose I am just trying to calm myself, I rode out Opal in 95 up in Ft Walton Beach and swore I would never stay through anything over a cat 1 again.
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damejune2
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Let me ask you this - What makes you so positive about a Sarasota - Tampa landfall? You said you didnt want to guess, but you did anyway and you put me and my family in the middle of it. So now i ask you - back this up! What proof do you have to show a Sarasota - Tampa landfall and why hasn't the picked up on this? Can you explain your theory? I am still thinking it will hit Ft. Myers or southward because at this time, the says thats where it will go as well as the models that i have seen. The only model north of Ft. Myers is the ever unpopular, unreliable LBAR.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Actually steve if it did stall it would go more ENE in time as the westerlys will be much further south into the southern gulf by Sunday or Monday. If it goes towards Cancun and gets into the gulf it will accelerate NE as the and most models predict.....the ETA also hints at a stall in the Yucitan,, but I disregard this as of now.
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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That's what I thought. Looking at the 12Z run out as far as it goes now, the Yucatan landfall weakens it quite a bit, then looks to run further ENE south of the current track (though its only 84 hours of this writing).
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wulrich
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Calm down..good god.
He was just making his call. Just because he made a call doesn't mean you and your family are in the direct path.
Just let him make his own personal opinion, just as you are now. If you believe the , so beit...they aren't the only forecasters around and they certainly dont' have to be followed verbatim.
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This significant wobble to the south with the eye could certainly change the impact zone in Florida. Just keep an eye on it all..should be an interesting storm.
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Don't diss the weather. If the weather didn't change every once in a while, 9/10ths of the people in this world couldn't start a conversation.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Calm down June,,, hes not putting your family at risk. Any prediction after 48hrs from landfall is speculative. He notes a few things that can do it,,as such models tending slightly N but then again, some stall it.. no one knows for sure. If anyone including me make speculations right now, I would just blow it off as no one knows forsure until maybe Friday....
Edited by scottsvb (Wed Oct 19 2005 04:17 PM)
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Lee-Delray
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He has to give all possibilities. The lower catagory they mention, the less people prepare.
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Thunder
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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looking at RSO on sat......WOW..... something new in my life time...
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html
11am discussion
PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 12Z finally brings whatever is left of over the Keys and extreme SW Florida by 114 hours. This is just one model run, but it is the first indication in the recent model guidance of possibly "pulling a Mitch" by moving further west than expected and then stalling out. Since the is closely related to the , it will probably show something similar in its 12Z run, though that isn't a certainty.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 04:25 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Ok well came out and it takes it at first to about 85w during the next 24 hrs then takes it N and around CUBA to Keywest then races it NE across S florida near Everglades City- WPB in 6 hrs....Another words....garbage,,this model has been soo inconsistant. out almost 120hrs and its very slow for 2 days near the Cancun area then moving it towards Key West and simular path to . I feel the is correct up to near Cancun, but dont see the stall yet so it will be further up with the .....speaking of which I cant get any info on that after 72hrs.....will by 1pm though and also the ,, I want to see if it slows it down near Cancun, if it doesnt then its path will be interesting enough if it stays thru FT Myers or not.
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