dreamingtree
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Hi everyone! I am new to this site, and I am glad I found this board! I find everyones input extremely informative and very interesting. I am watching very closely, as we live in Oldsmar, FL , which is between Tampa and St Pete, right above the bay. We have to evacuate our 2 story townhouse if a cat 3 or higher threatens, so we have to be on guard. We are prepared, but will not evacuate until we are told we must. Even though traffic would be terrible if the storm is found to be coming our way, it is pointless to jump the gun at this time. We have been here about 2 years, and are from up north, so I know a lot about tornadoes and used to "chase" them and report any funnel clouds, but am still learning about hurricanes.
This is very funny in the terms of where its going. It appears to be moving like someone is stearing it through the water like a boat. I do not believe that anyone at this time can predict just where it will hit for sure on Fl's West Coast. Honestly, I think the experts are doing very well at even predicting that it will move north and make such a turn. I respect them a lot. Such science is a mystery to me!
What I do know is that business are now starting to take precautions in case anything does happen. Some are announcing that they will be closed if even a tropical storm warning is issued. I have not yet seen people stocking up on supplies or boards for windows. The lines at Wal-Mart are normal. When the boards start "moving down the street," then peoples moods change considerably and more people start to take the storm seriously.
I think its very interesting to track the storm, although unlike some people, I do not actually want it to hit. I am tracking the storm because I have to because we chose to live in this location, and because I like to learn about hurricanes. I have noticed some people pretend to be scared of the storm (especially people on the east side where it will not be bad), but they seem to be excited about it hitting them so they have a story to tell. I would rather dissapates and leaves any storm stories untold. That would make a story in itself.
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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I have to admit, I too always thought your name was June and Dame your self knighted title.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Yeah I was going to mention that to answer Frank P's question but couldn't get this to load once I stupidly hit "show all" on this dog of a PC I have at work.
Wilma's pathological nature is enhancing these oscilliations to a scale that is beyond what is normally observed. We see it as "wobbling" on normal Cat 4 / Cat 5 hurricanes, but it is still the same cycloidal oscillation.
Board monitors: any chance we could start a new topic so I could refresh every so often without waiting umpteen minutes to load all the posts?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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He has "backed it up" in his posts. If you read through them carefully, you can see that there is clear evidence that there are some atmospheric conditions that would allow a further northern track. Even the has shifted their track ...albeit ever so slightly...to the left. The two systems that would have allowed a further southern track by merging is not going to happen. Why? Because they can't catch each other, and that was a main factor in where this storm will end up. I've posted those WV loops earlier on, you can see it clearly.
I don't think that Genesis is "guessing", either. He said, "anywhere between Tampa Bay and Sarasota is possible." Those two cities are IN THE CONE, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that it will happen.
In any case, since your area is in the "margin of error" cone, you need to start completing your plans instead of accusing someone ...who, btw, has been pretty accurate thus far...of "putting your family in danger by guessing". The thing that's putting your family in danger is called HURRICANE . Also, I will make mention of the fact that several mets, NWS forecast discussions and even the itself is now mentioning how these two players + some others are beginning to pan out in the models.
I would advise you to keep yourself calm because there are plenty of nailbiting days to come. We will know more in a day or so. Right now the best thing you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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My personal belief, given the WV and expected pattern evolution
He did give some backup here Damien. He expects the pattern to evolve in a certain way so that it goes farther north then expected.
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I don't think anyone from Cedar Key to the Keys can relax.....
I think that sums in up the best, no one can relax until this thing has passed, no one.
Personally, I think people on this message board need to stop being so uptight about what other people say. There hasen't been a serious post of wishcasting a quite a while. Everyone the past couple storms has done very well on providing information and if giving speculation, letting everyone know that they're speculating. No one can do more then that right now. Clark isn't 100% sure where its going, but I bet he has a good idea. Just like everyone else.
Let the hobbiest mets(and some professionals) make predictions, as long as they have some good reasoning and a post is not. "wilma is going here" then take it with a grain of salt and add it to the information you get from other sources. Everyone has thier own interpretation of what the satalites are showing, let them tell us about it. They might tell us something we hadn't thought of.
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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
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All i can say is "wow".
100 MPH increase in winds in less than a day.
882 MB?!?!?!?!? That's unbelieveable.
This is will be a season that won't be forgotten.
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mempho
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
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For the sake of posterity, I wouldn't mind if it holds near whatever it bottomed out at (the pressure was still falling like a rock when the recon plane left, so who knows how low the pressure got) until the next plane gets in there, and then I hope the inner core falls apart, which is bound to happen at some point soon.
I wonder why they don't fly more recon into storms like this...not just for the sake of posterity, but I would think the research data would be invaluable for protecting lives at some point in the future. For instance, if we ever saw rapid intensification right off the coast of some area, we could use this data to better extrapolate the conditions in the eye. This information could be broadcast to those in the path to no longer treat this as though you are going to get hit by a hurricane, but rather to treat it like you will be hit by a tornado. Then, people could put mattresses on top of their heads and so forth to protect themselves. I could easily see such measurements as being valuable.
Probably this biggest gain with this data would be to mariners. Cruise vessels often must make the decision to either punch through a depression/storm. With such rapid intensification, it is possible for even prudent mariners to be caught in a catastrophic hurricane. Let's just hope that we don't find out later that this actually happened to someone.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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We are watching this frame by frame and model by model,...we are not sure cause we dont want to give out the wrong info....Intensity for weakening is we have but movement we dont,,,especially with the latest run... Anyways everyone lets wait till it get north of Cancun and when it does, then we will have an idea....
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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
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Quote:
I wonder why they don't fly more recon into storms like this...not just for the sake of posterity, but I would think the research data would be invaluable for protecting lives at some point in the future. For instance, if we ever saw rapid intensification right off the coast of some area, we could use this data to better extrapolate the conditions in the eye. This information could be broadcast to those in the path to no longer treat this as though you are going to get hit by a hurricane, but rather to treat it like you will be hit by a tornado. Then, people could put mattresses on top of their heads and so forth to protect themselves. I could easily see such measurements as being valuable.
I agree-we probably have learned more than any other season. The recon help us understand some of his to help the mariners, etc.
But basically, this thing is another , another , just a giant F3 tornado.
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Big Tk
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
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Scottvsb
what's your take on the motion of do you see it speeding up or slowing down? At her current motion i suspect it will arrive at the tip of the yucatan by late friday night..
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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
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Does anyone find scarily similar to Gilbert in '88?
I think so!
It's a cat 5, it's just about in the same spot as gilbert, and the very small eye also!
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Quote:
although unlike some people, I do not actually want it to hit. I am tracking the storm because I have to because we chose to live in this location, and because I like to learn about hurricanes. I have noticed some people pretend to be scared of the storm (especially people on the east side where it will not be bad), but they seem to be excited about it hitting them so they have a story to tell. I would rather dissapates and leaves any storm stories untold. That would make a story in itself.
Excuse me, ask the people in Brevard county after Charly hit. Brevard is the east coast you know. Obviously it won't be as bad as a east coast landfall would be, however, level 2 hurricanes or even a 1 going over your head is not a pretty sight no matter what side it hits. I happen to live on the east side and mentioned that it scares me. YEP it does! Not only the winds but the tornado's that these things have been known to throw in the path are devastating. Even on the other side of the coast!
Jackie
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Tantalus
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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My first post. I imagine everybody's nerves are a bit ragged right about now. I know ours are. We live in the Keys with no place to go and no money to get there if we did. Many of my customers are baffled; they are afraid, given the uncertainty of 's path and intensity, that they will be moving from the frying pan into the fire. Kudos to the many people on the board who take this all very seriously and refrain from all the ad hominem attacks found elsewhere. As to the mets, what can you say about the remarkable job they do that hasn't been said already? Light a candle for us, gang, we're in for a long weekend.
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Some you win, some you lose; some get rained out
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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wow, did 's eye just make a loop? is that what you are talking about? yikes!
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looking at RSO on sat......WOW..... something new in my life time...
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html
11am discussion
PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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My Take on ?? I prefer, Betty, Barney, Fred, Dino and Pebbles. was always a little too uptight for my liking.. Send her back to Bedrock I say..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I will just watch her till she gets to Cancun... that is in 36hrs....by then we will have the 0z runs of Friday to know where abouts landfall will be. Unless it does stall (which at this time I dont buy into unless other models agree).
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Were the most obvious sign that I've seen that we are looking at a very bad scenario with ...regardless of where she ends up making landfall.
Maybe I have missed it in the past, but I have never seen the director of the actually hold a press conference. Here are some of the comments I picked up on, and those in the "cone" need to heed what he had to say:
1) He doesn't expect this to be a Cat 5 at landfall. He was talking about a Cat 3 or even *possibly* a Cat IV at landfall.
2) There is a "significant risk for loss of life" along the impact area.
3) Storm surge could well be as high as 25', causing catastrophic damage along the western Florida peninsula. Some wave models are predicting 50'+ waves in the Keys.
4) Because of the size of the storm, a large area of Florida will be under the gun, incluing the SE part of Florida.
5) He mentioned that either his daughter OR grandaughter is Homecoming Queen and that dance is set for Saturday night. He told her that there is a "good possibility that dance will not be held." She wasn't happy. 
6) That EVERYONE IN THE CONE...INCLUDING TB south needs to be paying very close attention because it is likely that the "model guidance will shift" again...and again he mentioned the "west coast of Florida.
7) When a dimbulb reporter asked him if he was "concerned about what effects will have on wildlife in the Everglades", he almost looked dumbfounded and asked her to repeat the question, which she did. His answer?
"I am much more concerened about what effect the storm will have on HUMAN lives in the Everglades than I am about the wildlife at this time."
I can't even remember a time when any director of the actually held a press conference to discuss the impacts a storm will have. We usually see them for breif periods of time during interviews with local and national mets. I think he's trying to get the word out: GET OUT if you are told to get out.
I believe we will be hearing from Governer Bush in the coming hours.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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If you are in the cone you should be making preparations. Reservations should be made not whereever you plan to go.
If is a 3 or higher I would leave.
Question: They said could affect New England down the road. Any thoughts on that?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Multiple reasons for not more flights. $$$$'s and distance are some of the main ones. Lose about 30 minutes outbound and 30 minutes on the return because of the hunters being displaced to Atlanta. I know there have been numerous equipment problems too this season.
Whole hunter fleet needs an influx of dollars from Congress; but that won't hapopen anytime soon.
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Jim
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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There currently are no evacuation plans as of yet according to Mr Vickers of the EOC...he said to get prepared and they will announce tommorrow whether or not there will be evacuations in the Tampa Bay area...Mayor Pam Iorio said to get prepared as well and they will have a conference tommorrow to decide, but its looking more towards evacuation of the Tampa Bay area. I suggest every take precaution and get ready...i know i am....good luck all and lets hope she decides to go elsewhere 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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