evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 71
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Checkout the ., what a change!:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL242005
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Hold the Phone folks: Something has to be BAD WRONG:
EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALONG ATL
SEABOARD...UNFORTUNATELY WHERE IMPACT FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
GREATEST. TRACK OF HAS PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH 15Z
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY PUT INTO THE DARK SHADOW OF
THE 12Z . MORNING UPDATE FOR WAS INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY
06Z ...WHICH SHOWED ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE UP AND AROUND ERN
PERIPHERY OF VORTEX CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES. DAY 5 POINT WAS
CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN EARLIER OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN FINAL MANUAL PROGS. BUT ALONG
CAME THE 12Z ...WHICH SLOWED S DEPARTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS TREMENDOUSLY. FURTHERMORE...WHOLE ORIENTATION OF UPPER
TROF OVER ERN US LOOKS DIFFERENT ON LATEST ...WITH MORE OF A N
TO S AXIS VS W TO E FROM THE 00Z RUN. DECISION TO USE 00Z FOR
THE PRELIM PROGS WAS BASED LARGELY ON ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND
STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO ITS ENSMEAN...WHICH STILL SOUND ATTRACTIVE
...ESP IN LIGHT OF MORE RECENT MODEL VOLATILITY. SO...COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET WAS TO STICK WITH EARLIER NOTIONS AND HOPE THAT
MODELS SETTLE DOWN ONCE BURGEONING VORTEX MAKES UP ITS MIND AS TO
ITS INTENTIONS.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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This answer's for Double plus anyone else that's interested that has IE5.5/IE6.
To save the current .gif animation to disk you need to do the following:
1) make sure you can see the folder 'content.IE5' in your IE cache folder 'Temporary Internet Files'
2) navigate into the 'content.IE5' folder then into one of the four sub-folders and you will find the .gif loop there
3) copy it to another permanent location on your disk somewhere
If you do not have access to your 'content.IE5' folder, which most people don't, then you need to remove the protection on it. The file that maintains the protection is called desktop.ini in the 'Temporary Internet Files' folder. Delete the desktop.ini file and that should now allow you to access the 'content.IE5' folder.
Hope you followed that.
--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Oh please, will someone decode that for me..LOL! Plain english anyone?
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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The main idea is that the is generally a well-performing model, and such a marked change in its path (as mentioned numerous times in this thread) could be a sign of a major forecast shift. Regardless of where it ends up, we like knowing where in general it is going -- so confusion like this is a bad thing.
2pm, we should be getting a new recon fix anytime I'd imagine.
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[witty phrase here]
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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900 mb, and 165 mph .. i hope will weak a bit more !
Edited by komi (Wed Oct 19 2005 06:06 PM)
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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This major forcast shift, would that be north or south?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Those are estimated values... the plane should be in there in the next 30-60 minutes to get some observations.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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It could also be a problem with data. We shall see what transpires. Will be interesting to read the model discussions when they come available.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 429
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Any "best guesses" what will happen if she misses the front?
Oh, by the way Boston won the World Series least year; don't count Cleveland out.
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Thunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Has Jim Canotre been deployed yet?
That may be a bit more reliable than the computer models at this time. 
Edited by Thunder (Wed Oct 19 2005 06:18 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Cleveland is out, Anyways the shift would be south towards Cuba but we will see what the next runs bring.
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mempho
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
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I certainly understand the constraints that recon works under. I think that the government should put in the resources for unlimited flights into named systems, however. Certainly that would mean that more people would have to be trained as well. I don't think anyone here has anything but respect for the guys that do the recon....especially with the difficult conditions posed by this storm.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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Cantore in Cuba? Hmmmmm
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nandav
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
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My #1 Hurricane prep Advice (besides all the other preparations)... Do your Laundry!! (Wouldn't hurt to run the dishwasher just beforehand, too).... (The other dumb thing I DIDN'T do last time.. before hit.. was to buy ice.. since it wasn't coming anywhere NEAR Punta Gorda... At least I bought batteries...)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Looks like the Swan Islands are going to take a direct hit. Does anyone know if there is any meteorological instrumentation there?
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Looks like may be on her last or next-to-last bounce...then maybe she'll spin in situ for a while?
--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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mempho
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 10
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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dreamingtree
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, FL
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My Take on ?? I prefer, Betty, Barney, Fred, Dino and Pebbles. was always a little too uptight for my liking.. Send her back to Bedrock I say..
That is pretty funny! LOL
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 894 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
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