Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
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What about yesterday's forecast? It looked as if Baja California would be more likely take a bath, in the event of a strong , than Florida would. If so then why would a strong now be expected to track more or less the same as a weak ?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Wilma isn't the only thing changing this morning. Here is an excerpt from the Tampa NWS AFD...just out.
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 241 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)
WILMA HAS UNDERGONE RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAPID DEEPENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE!
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE POINTING OUT THE DETAILS...WITH RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN TIMING AND SUBTLE CHANGES IN TRACK OF . IN GENERAL...MOST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SEVERAL COMPLEX UPR FEATURES...SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ARE ALL PLAYERS IN THE TRACK OF AND STILL THINK WE MAY SEE SOME MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES...
THUS OUR CWA...ESP SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...IS STILL POTENTIALLY IN THE THICK OF THINGS AND NO ONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD DOWN. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS SW FL (NEAR NAPLES) SAT EVE.
this AFD is Tampa's diagnosis of forecast weather. AFDs are updated around 4 times a day. And doesn't mean that will do exactly what's in the discussion. Just like all weather...wait 30 minutes and it will change~danielw
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KTBW.html
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Tampa does have a hard time reporting forecasts and being politically correct at the same time. I think it translated to (heck if we know what this storm is going to do)
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Oh, guys... you have got to take a look at the wv loop right up to the current (0715Z). This is unreal. She's ramping up some more.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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166kts Max flt level wind on both ?sides? of the Eye.
At 0800Z.
edit: It appears that due to the small Eye Recon is extrapolating 's pressure from the aircraft height above sea level. I haven't seen a dropsonde report in a while.
We will have to wait a few minutes to see what her pressure is now.
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 08:15 AM)
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
166kts Max flt level wind on both ?sides? of the Eye.
At 0800Z.
For those of us at sea about things nautical would 166kts be slightly in excess of 190mph?
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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statute mi = naut. mi x 1.15.
5,280 feet...6080 feet
Correction factors may be needed in some calculations but the ratio is eternal, Danny!
Edited by Multi-Decadal Signal (Wed Oct 19 2005 08:40 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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166kts flt level *1.15=191mph(flt level wind speed in mph) * 91% for surface winds=174mph at the surface (approximate)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Major Hurricane has now broken All Previous Records of Lowest Minimum Central Pressure.
URNT12 KNHC 190835
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:00:30Z
B. 17 deg 03 min N
082 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2082 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 320 deg 166 kt
G. 221 deg 003 nm
H. 884 mb
I. 10 C/ 3073 m
J. 24 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A OB 16
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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884mb is the pressure....That is amazing.
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pinellas County
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What effects do you think the St Pete/Tampa area will experience from ? Is this a storm that people in this area should be concerned enough with to consider leaving?
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
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Christ. Late-season hurricane that has broken two records.
Par for the course with this season though.
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meranto
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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Still 15 mbar to go for the all time record 
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Where is LIPhil when you need him?
2005-The Year of Broken Records.
I hope we don't break any more!!!~danielw
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Earlier this evening I had thought again of the famous Bette Davis line in "All About Eve," which is, "Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy night."
However now all I can think of that's appropriate is another line from that same exceptionally-written movie: "Be careful, dear, you're going to run out of adjectives."
I have.
And the ride is not over. Deep warm water, all the way through Friday.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Assuming the 884 mb figure holds, the pressure has dropped 98 mb from the advisory at this time yesterday (when was still a tropical storm).
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I sometimes wonder if he's in a padded cell somewhere.
When he comes back, I will no longer refer to him as Little Phil. When he comes back, he weel be ze "Le Phil."
No -- that's good. We just have to find a way to put it into a pronounceable acronym.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
What effects do you think the St Pete/Tampa area will experience from ? Is this a storm that people in this area should be concerned enough with to consider leaving?
Consider leaving...Yes. I don't think I would leave just yet. I hate to say this. But I don't think is through with her astounding characteristics.
Pack and ready your vehicles for possible evacuation.
When Local Authorities issue a Mandatory or Voluntary Evacuation for your area. Follow that and Leave...please.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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From the latest discussion:
IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELIED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.
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