Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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This is too twisted for color tv:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES.
* * * * *
And, from the disc:
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
How about that?
Also, they think she's peaked
WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED
and I guess don't anticipate a replay of rapid intensification tomorrow night. I think another night of rapid intensification could still happen, but nothing even approaching the crazy heights of this past four hours, which, because of the bizarre structure of this hurricane, is already starting to feel a little like an academic curiosity, even if I did see it happen. I was glad to be watching, in any case.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Well I sent Phil a wake up email with the Vortex message in it. I don't think he will be able to resist.
This is from the 5 AM EDT Discussion.
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 (edited~danielw)
IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988.
HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For those that are still in their chairs.
Recon has departed , and is headed home.
The next flight is "scheduled" for a 9AM EDT departure, with an 18Z (2PM EDT) fix.
Please consult Official and NWS products for Official Statements, Watches and Warnings.
Stay alert to possible evacuation notices for areas of Florida. Most of all...Prepare Now~danielw
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The dropsonde that measured 884 mb recorded mean boundary layer winds of 20 knots, so the actual central pressure may be closer to the extrapolated 881 mb value mentioned in the discussion.
I think the recon plane is on the way out, so that may be the lowest pressure that will be measured from this storm. Some sort of weakening trend (rapid or otherwise) will likely commence before the next plane is scheduled to be in there.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I hope that's the lowest pressure that we Ever see.
If there is a consolation to that pressure. It's because is over open ocean. Here's hoping everyone cleared the area when she was a Tropical Storm.
About 25 hours ago!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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He'll think you made it up to bug him, and he'll be curmudgeonly. Then he'll find out it was for real, and he missed it, and then he'll be even more Phil-like.
OK I can go to sleep now, even with white cloud tops (I'm jaded now).
I just had this picture in my mind and I couldn't shake it -- the eyewall imploding just as the recon flew through, putting them into some kind of unrecoverable Top Gun tailspin. I was so worried. The 2nm diameter eyewall and lack of sleep was just freaking me out.
That recon will have a story to tell the rest of their lives.
Ugh. Good night all. What a long, strange trip it's been.
I have to get up in a couple hours!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I hope that's the lowest pressure that we Ever see
It's the weirdest low pressure we'll ever see.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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It actually appears on the last few IR frames that the Eye was expanding, could be the eyes, sure more coffee, why not
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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It would be funny if started weakening rapidly and saw the pressure jump back up to 930-940 mb in the next few hours. In that case, there will be people who have gone to bed when it was 954 mb and will wake up to an only somewhat lower pressure, even though it dropped all the way to 880-something during the night. That tiny inner core still seems to be hanging in there, though.
Wilma is a freak of nature right now, but at some point it will probably turn into a more typical hurricane. The bottom line for Florida hasn't necessarily changed that much... the environmental conditions by that time could probably support a cat 3 storm, but anything stronger than that would be unlikely, unless is a very intense hurricane as it moves into the Gulf, which is not a guarantee for any number of reasons (eyewall replacements, land interactions, etc.)
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meranto
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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Quote:
WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED
This means that with current understanding in physics, the combination of all the parameters like SST, shear, background pressure, upper air temp, etc etc, point out that the maximum intensity that could be reached is reached. In order to strengthen furter, higher SST's are needed, which means that is using the available energy about 100% efficient, which is supported by MPHI, where 880 is about the lowest pressure that can be reached (apart from 's own influence on that model).
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danielw
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Hypothetically speaking...Yes, has maxed out.
But all of the books seem outdated this year. For some reason. None of the models forecasted her current intensity. Similar to and .
Weather will never be an exact Science. As it changes so fast.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Oh my gosh, I can't believe what I woke up too. Unbelievable! I'm on the east coast of Florida and honestly I'm spooked. I know she will weaken but it still scares me!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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I don't know a whole lot about MPI, but given the very unusual structure of , it may not fit into that theoretical framework as well as just about any other hurricane would.
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meranto
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Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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Quote:
Oh my gosh, I can't believe what I woke up too. Unbelievable! I'm on the east coast of Florida and honestly I'm spooked. I know she will weaken but it still scares me!
Sleeping is just a waste of time  look what you've missed!
About the forecasts, a few days ago the did warn for very rapid intensification, but never included it into the forecasts. No forecaster would forecast a cat 5 hurricane for the next day, while it would be a TS at that time, it would wreck credibility.
Quote:
I don't know a whole lot about MPI, but given the very unusual structure of , it may not fit into that theoretical framework as well as just about any other hurricane would.
No that's true, but there are some limitations on the maximum intensity, so I don't think any cyclone would ever be able to reach 850 mbar in any condition possible on the earth.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Um...I thought I was done for the night, but then made the mistake of looking at the wv loop one last time.
The durn thing is flying along, wobbling like an Eveready Bunny missing one wheel, that weird eyewall looking just as stable as can be.
Look at the track. Looks like she's taking a path a little shallower; that is, a little more to the east than forecast. That'll keep her in those warmer waters. So, after the presumably inevitable , she'll have resources to strengthen again, and I don't see why she wouldn't make it back up to Cat 4/5 levels again by Thursday.
NHC still has her hitting land as a major hurricane (barely).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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wurkey1
Registered User
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Hi guys,
Just looking for a bit of reassurance here, i am flying to Orlando from Belfast about this time next month with my wife and kids for the whole Florida /Orlando experience, do you reckon it will still be safe to come???
Any help or advice would be most welcome.
Many thanks in anticipation,
Paul
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Assuming she stays somewhere near the forecast path, I don't think she is going to worrying about energy/sst
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Nothing has been certain or a given this season, but by this time next month I would think you should be ok
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I've GOT IT! "Season of Broken Records" ... "SOBR"
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Oh my god. I went to bed last night and was a Cat 2. Now I wake up and she's a 5, and the track has been nudged slightly north, more toward Fort Myers.
I think I feel sick.
A question. Last night I was reading posts where people said that the pressures in the Caribbean were naturally higher than in the Atlantic. Is this taken into consideration with deciding things like "which hurricane has the lowest pressure ever"? Does 's 884 correspond to an 884 if she had been in the Atlantic? Thanks.
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