Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Well, it's been interesting watching this thing break records while it has been out in the middle of the ocean with thankfully only a very small area affected by hurricane-force winds. I'm not sure what would be best as far as when the inevitable weakening commences... if it starts soon, there will be more time for it to try to reorganize over the warm waters to its immediate NW, while if it hangs on for awhile, it may not have much of a chance to reorganize before conditions become less favorable.
Figures that the first W storm in history will end up having its name retired. Good thing it wasn't Alpha... having to retire a letter from the Greek alphabet would have simply been ridiculous (knock on wood).
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wurkey1
Registered User
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Cheers, appreciate that!!! Good luck there!!!
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I cannot gurantee the weather. But the middle of November is usualy beautiful here in Orlando. I would keep your plans "on".
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Did hit 884-881 in the same general vicinity as when Gilbert hit 888?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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If stays a major hurricane, how easy will it be to make that sharp NE turn? Is it easier or more difficult to change direction when strong compared to a weaker storm?
Thanks, Jackie
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
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Seconding "Damn fine weather here in Orlando during Autumn."
It's very nice. Not cold, but not blazing hot, not all THAT humid, etc. Plus, we have all sorts of cool stuff to do. I recommend the indoor skydiving thing on International Drive, along with Islands of Adventure, Disney, etc.
If your children are reasonably grown up (teens) I'd also recommend Halloween Horror Nights at Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios.
I'm wondering how will end up, is this new left shift in the track a sign of another "constant shift" as it was earlier, eventually moving all the way from landfall in the Yucatan to Florida? Given, she's far from landfall now, and was even further then, but are there any reasons to believe that she will make landfall in, say, Pasco?
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I cannot believe Wilam will retain her intensity of her small eye for very long. Maybe another 12-24 hours. Once she hits the higher latitudes, the colder SSTs, and the front, I hope she will weaken rapidly - for all of our sakes in the FL peninsula.
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wurkey1
Registered User
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My two girls are 8 and 6 ( well almost 7 and apparently that counts for a lot!!! ) and they are absolutley bouncing as each day gets closer and to have to cancel if the hurricane gets too bad or lingers would be a huge disappointment.
My wife and i have been here before, prior to kids, and loved the area, the people and the weather, fingers crossed!!!!
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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I agree. I am in Orlando this week working and the weather is beautiful. Watching this hurricane has been nothing short of amazing. I would think though that a hurricane that can deepend this rapidly can also weaken this rapidly. We have seen it with several other hurricanes this year. Once they start interacting with land and stronger steering currents, they seem to lose steam. Still quite an impressive display this year in the Gulf and the Caribbean.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Can someone confirm my reasoning. The more west this goes, the more likely it will be picked up the front earlier than expected and the more weakening it will undergo before making landfall. On the other hand, the more northerly the track, the more likely it will have more strength when it makes landfall. I am not sure of the wesrt or north track will effect the location of landfall. I think that is more of a function of the location of the front and theh lattitude of at the time of interaction.
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
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Quote:
Where is LIPhil when you need him?
Do you mean that moderator person? Long Island Phil?
Up to now I'd been assuming he was censured. 
No need to show me the door again. And good luck.
(And thanks.)
Edited by Spoken (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:28 AM)
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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NO Pasco!!! 
Wow, did I get a surprise at 4:55 this morning. Now, after my long drive to work I find out that you all stayed up and I missed it.  Dang it.
The first thing that crossed my mind when I saw this morning was OMG!!!!!  I am fairly sure that was not expected - nah - positive. I'm down to dial up at home UGH - that will make this weekend even more worrisome. I will depend heavily on what I read here.
I am still having a problem buying into that hard straight line right hook. I am not good at "seeing" the set up of fronts/troughs but I don't remember seeing a cane do quite that.
Semi off topic -
Just a couple of funnies that I have heard the last day or so - both from local mets
" and this is our exclusive model we are showing you" (that was yesterday) exclusive???
"she can't get any stronger and will lose strength rapidly now" (this morning) riiiiight
LOL
Remember - it's the cone - not the line. She's a biggie!
Just checked the wv loop - she's HUGE!
Edited by Hootowl (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:30 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Wow, did I get a surprise at 4:55 this morning. Now, after my long drive to work I find out that you all stayed up and I missed it. Dang it.
The first thing that crossed my mind when I saw this morning was OMG!!!!! I am fairly sure that was not expected - nah - positive. I'm down to dial up at home UGH - that will make this weekend even more worrisome. I will depend heavily on what I read here.
Remember - it's the cone - not the line. She's a biggie!
The FIRST thing that crossed MY mind cannot be repeated in this forum.  (hint, it starts with an "F").
I think I'm in shock. One of the computer models forecasted on Saturday that we would be dealing with a cat 5 on Tuesday, so I don't really believe anyone should be shocked, but this season has just been insane. Still, the pin-hole eye was a dead giveaway that was on its way to surpassing Gilbert. The question now becomes when will an EWRC begin and how much will ultimately weaken. I'm not going to speculate about it getting stronger, it's just not fathomable. Looking at the IR4 loop currently, you can't get a more impressive cloud pattern - you can only get a BIGGER one.
Sadly... and I don't say this lightly and I'm not a MET so it's purely speculation... but... I think we can burn the models now. They (the models) have insufficient information to accurately predict what will happen in something they have never seen before - and they have obviously never seen Wlma before. And... as I said yesterday... I very much remember Gilbert, which is the only basis for comparison in terms of storms or forecast track. Gilbert was forecast to hit Florida, much the same way now is.
Don't take that as a call for panic. Just pay attention to what the storm is doing. The models have shifted northward again, which puts Tampa back in play and may reduce the risk to Miami, but honestly with a storm like , if it hits Tampa dead-on it will potentially cause major destruction over all of the peninsula because it's just so big and powerful.
I haven't seen a wind field... but I presume that the incredible winds are limited to a very tiny area around the 2nm eye. Hopefully it will - very soon - caved in on itself. I shutter to think what the next recon will bring.
ETA: Please remember... even though will by all that is sensible and reasonable and right with the world weaken we hope... the storm surge will not drop off to the level it would otherwise be with a cat 3 storm... was an excellent demonstration of this. Since the surge is (I presume) generated well ahead of landfall, it doesn't drop off when the winds do. Based upon the current track... Cuba may have a storm surge that is uncomprehensible.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:52 AM)
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SMOKE
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
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Quote:
Can someone confirm my reasoning. The more west this goes, the more likely it will be picked up by the front earlier than expected and the more weakening it will undergo before making landfall. On the other hand, the more northerly the track, the more likely it will have more strength when it makes landfall. I am not sure of the wesrt or north track will effect the location of landfall. I think that is more of a function of the location of the front and theh lattitude of at the time of interaction.
A more accurate assumption would be frontal and upper air feature interaction ..... 2 Lows should be a player in the direction and intensity of the storm as it moves in the Gap and heads to the Straits.
Good reasoning but as always, dependent on how simple you want to view the forces involved.
BTW, noticed the ARWO on board .... not Warren, so no eloquent embellishments on the 'nature' of the storm.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Don't take that as a call for panic. Just pay attention to what the storm is doing. The models have shifted northward again, which puts Tampa back in play and may reduce the risk to Miami, but honestly with a storm like , if it hits Tampa dead-on it will potentially cause major destruction over all of the peninsula because it's just so big and powerful.
I haven't seen a wind field... but I presume that the incredible winds are limited to a very tiny area around the 2nm eye. Hopefully it will - very soon - caved in on itself. I shutter to think what the next recon will bring.
The storm isn't that big (we've seen bigger) and the hurricane force winds were last reported at less than 15 miles from the eye. So a tight, 30 nm diameter windfield does NOT mean "major destruction over all of the peninsula ".
Please remember to breathe in through the nose, out through the mouth and relax. It's far, far too early to get excited about the potential damage of a storm forecast to weaken considerably prior to landfall.
There may yet be a time to panic, but that time is not now...
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SMaggi49
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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Hi there,
I am monitoring the hurricane situation from Germany and all I could only tell is, that I hope that will weaken, so it may not make such a desastrous landfall.
I am saying this, just to signalize: We all are interested that everyone of you will be umharmed by any storm ever. Just a very brief wish of good luck for all of you.
Take care and greetings from Germany.
Stefan
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 94
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I'm not even going to try to speculate on the exact point of landfall, but let's assume it does landfall somwhere on the FL west coast, is any one else thinkin that it's not going to curve QUITE as sharply to the east as the models are predicting? I can see the NE turn but just not seeing how they're getting that sharp of an angle.
Thanks.
Hurricane '04(Port Charlotte, FL)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I'm not even going to try to speculate on the exact point of landfall, but let's assume it does landfall somwhere on the FL west coast, is any one else thinkin that it's not going to curve QUITE as sharply to the east as the models are predicting? I can see the NE turn but just not seeing how they're getting that sharp of an angle.
Thanks.
Hurricane '04(Port Charlotte, FL)
Funny (not ha ha but ironic), I was just thinking the same thing. The "elbow" effect seems a bit unrealistic, but it is possible if the trough really moves in quickly - possible, but I don't think likely. A more realistic expectation is that there will be a gradual turn... the big question being when it begins and how far east it turns. A slower turn could ultimately mean MORE of a turn, because the trough will move in more. It's all a matter of angles.
ETA: Since the plane is no longer in (I read what said it was the "last report"), anyone know when we will get confirmation of the intensity? I assume the next plane is 3 hours away or so, based upon the POTD from yesterday. Even though its only for historical buffs, it would be interesting to get confirmation of the strongest hurricane on record.
ETA2: On the 1015 IR (can't see the 1045 yet)... the signature is SLIGHTLY weakened, in my opinion. I hope this means we have seen the peak.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:11 AM)
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Steeler Fan
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: Sarasota, FL
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I have a question regarding evacuation...
history - where I am in Sarasota we are not considered to be in an area that is an evacuation area for even a CAT 5, nor are we in an area that is predicted to be affected by storm surge from any size storm (got this info. from a link Margie posted yesterday - Thanks). Incredibly, we are only 1.5 miles from Sarasota Bay and they still say the surge from even a 5 would not affect us. We are considering going further inland and have started the process of reservations for several days, but due to the infastructure on the west coast, I see a huge parking lot of I75 and I4, due to the evacuees from further south of us.
The problem is that I will not leave our dog behind, so have sought out places that will accomodate, but feel that we would be taking lodging from someone who may need it much more than us. How much faith should we put in the surge models out there? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks in advance...
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"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Steeler Fan. There are several E/W roads worth considering.
SR 70, SR 64, SR 60 - any one will make you far better time than I-4. When I lived in Bradenton, we used to head south to SR 70 and take it across the state to avoid I-4.
My parents evacuated for last year (from Brevard) to stay with friends in Bradenton. They went South on 95 and made great time, then east on SR 70 and barely saw another living soul. Meanwhile, 95 North was a parking lot for the next dozen+ hours. I went out for a drive (getting antsy) about 4 hours before any real TS force winds. 95 was completely empty...
Just some info to consider.
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