BrooklynMommy
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
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Hi everyone! I've been watching you for almost a year now and hope that you guys can give me your best guess if Port St Lucie will get hit again and will it be of any strength by the time it hits over here. I still haven't gotten all the repairs on my house from the last one! 
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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75 knots? What the heck?
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[witty phrase here]
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Anyone from immediate Tampa Bay area? Now Bay News 9 Met Alan W. says that if the storm turns early it will be S. FL, If it turns later it will be a big difference for our area,which is a given. They anticipate this turn to happen on Friday, So what, that gives this area 24 hours to evacuate???? Is it likely that this may happen? Are you all making the preparations now?
I guess Iam a little nervous now. Any thoughts or comments
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg,FL
Evac B zone 
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Hold the Phone folks: Something has to be BAD WRONG:
EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALONG ATL
SEABOARD...UNFORTUNATELY WHERE IMPACT FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
GREATEST. TRACK OF HAS PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH 15Z
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY PUT INTO THE DARK SHADOW OF
THE 12Z . MORNING UPDATE FOR WAS INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY
06Z ...WHICH SHOWED ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE UP AND AROUND ERN
PERIPHERY OF VORTEX CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES. DAY 5 POINT WAS
CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN EARLIER OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN FINAL MANUAL PROGS. BUT ALONG
CAME THE 12Z ...WHICH SLOWED S DEPARTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS TREMENDOUSLY. FURTHERMORE...WHOLE ORIENTATION OF UPPER
TROF OVER ERN US LOOKS DIFFERENT ON LATEST ...WITH MORE OF A N
TO S AXIS VS W TO E FROM THE 00Z RUN. DECISION TO USE 00Z FOR
THE PRELIM PROGS WAS BASED LARGELY ON ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND
STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO ITS ENSMEAN...WHICH STILL SOUND ATTRACTIVE
...ESP IN LIGHT OF MORE RECENT MODEL VOLATILITY. SO...COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET WAS TO STICK WITH EARLIER NOTIONS AND HOPE THAT
MODELS SETTLE DOWN ONCE BURGEONING VORTEX MAKES UP ITS MIND AS TO
ITS INTENTIONS.
...Which is all sophisticated code for "...huh, i dunno"
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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New thread, everybody.
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[witty phrase here]
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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We will have to wait and see. But the 2PM is still calling for a NW turn in the next 24 hours and the NWS seems to be ignoring for the most part the 12Z run of the . So we shall see, hopefully it does move to some other location, but come the next round of models we shall see. Other Global models have yet to jump on this bandwagon at this time.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
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Two models now show a Yucatan hit, stalling, and drift to the east over Cuba and Florida straits. The satellite imagery shows the center going west of the 11am path. Are there enough steering currents to really push it more north to avoid the Yucatan now? Does she have enough inertia to create her own path and continue on to the Yucatan?
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I see a slightly different recon value
H. 892 mb
892 pressure
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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They did what was listed as eyewall dropsonde in the NE eyewall which showed some unusual data... surface pressure measured by the dropsonde was 898 mb (only slightly lower than the listed central pressure, which would be unusual for the eyewall). The mean boundary layer winds were listed as being out of the N at 81 knots, the 850mb winds were listed as being out of the N at 88 kts, while the 700mb winds were listed as being out of the E at 41 knots. I'm not sure what to make of all that.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Looks like they corrected the vortex report to reflect a measured pressure of 892 mb, rather than an extrapolated pressure of 894 mb.
Edit: The eye dropsonde that measured 892 mb also reported surface winds of 29 knots. Typically, that would indicate the actual central pressure is 2-3 mb lower, but this isn't a typical storm, so who knows.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:42 PM)
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No Hurricane Experience
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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This is going to sound like a totally irrelevant question to all of you living in Florida, and for that I apologize in advance. I live in the State of Washington and my family and I are scheduled to fly in to Orlando at 5pm on this coming Monday night to start our vacation (we love Florida and we're going to the parks for a week in Orlando and then heading out to Port Canavaral for a cruise to the Eastern Caribbean leaving on Saturday the 29th). We have absolutely no hurricane experience and were wondering if we should consider cancelling our plans in the Orlando area if the hurricane looks to go through that area over the weekend (or later)?? Our thoughts and prayers are with everybody in Florida and I know these questions are trivial compared to trying to make plans regarding where you live. Any thoughts anyone has would be greatly appreciated.
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gailwarning
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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Quote:
BTW, I have a C-182 (Cessna) that we could use to punch into the storm. Any co-pilot volunteers?
Hello, neighbor! I'm down the street in Satellite Beach. Trust me, you do not have enough sick sacks to take me up in a Cessa during any weather condition. LOL!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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There is a new thread up.
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RyanTheCaneMan
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
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Quote:
Anyone from immediate Tampa Bay area? Now Bay News 9 Met Alan W. says that if the storm turns early it will be S. FL, If it turns later it will be a big difference for our area,which is a given. They anticipate this turn to happen on Friday, So what, that gives this area 24 hours to evacuate???? Is it likely that this may happen? Are you all making the preparations now?
I guess Iam a little nervous now. Any thoughts or comments
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg,FL
Evac B zone
I live in South Tampa
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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Post deleted by Multi-Decadal Signal
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dreamingtree
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Yes, I am from Oldsmar, just north of the bay. We are prepared for a storm, but are not going to evacuate until we are told to do so. We know our zone, and it is zone B, which means cat 3 or greater we must leave. A cat 5 would flood us out totally, but its pretty doubtful this one will stay that strength. (hopefully) Thats the 1st step is knowing your zone. We really would hate to leave, but we dont want to be shrimp boat captains either! LOL Some people may chose to leave earlier, and I know many businesses are already making preparations to close if a tropical storm warning is issued. No one is getting boards yet though. Right now we are prepared to ride out the storm and are stocked up on batteries and flashlights and all that good stuff. If we are made to evacuate, true, that wont be much time at all, but there isnt a whole lot of choice. There are so many ways this storm could turn, its hard to figure out. Maybe with the experts opinions and amateurs opinions together we will come to some sort of conclusion soon. Every point counts!
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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Quote:
Quote:
New thread, everybody.
GO TO NEW THREAD STARTED @ 2:19 by MikeC!!
TITLE: CONTINUED
PAGES WILL LOAD MUCH FASTER, DAMNIT!
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Capedad
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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Definitely DO NOT cancel.
You will not be able to fly in if the weather is bad so the airlines might make the decision for you.
By Monday night, it should be off in the Atlantic.
A cruise the following weekend will be fine. The port will close if the weather is too bad. It will be fine by next weekend.
Delta 
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