Dr. Gray
Unregistered
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OK, so what I was off this year. Give me a break!!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Jason:
Unreal indeed! Might well see a gust in excess of 150, but it'll have to be estimated. Our thoughts are with Steve and Kimmee and others in the 'core' area - our best news will be to know on Friday that you are all okay. Your experiences will make for chilling reading in the weeks ahead. My thoughts on landfall, etc, have been updated in the Storm Forum. Frank P. - don't let that surge climb up too many steps!
Cheers,
ED
Ed Dunham
Chief Meteorologist
The Boeing Company
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Rick
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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LOL
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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TOO FUNNY..... hehe
I'm laughing my a$$ off over here... good come back DG!
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I just checked my running math against a 1135ET radar plot, drifting myself to around 324.83 degrees now. Every .1 degree west is a little better for NO. Still, no one's gonna be "better" with this storm unless it would just deflate rapidly, which I don't think it will do, so my prayers continue onward....
Jay
-------------------- Londovir
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I'm sure they'll take every .1w they can get.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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was checking out the topographic maps at teraserver.com and the area from Franklin on out to the Gulf is mostly if not all marsh. By now with the strong onshore flow most of that marsh area may well be filling up with water.
I would imagine the coastline is like that of the big bend area or the Sw part of Florida, where its not a real defined line of land ending and water starting
That storm surge wont have to go over much land because what little is there is probably under water already.
Geeze!!! upwards of 15 feet+ strom surge plus wind blowing waves on top of that?!?!?. This is where the love/hate relationship with hurricanes really comes into play.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Thanks for that info Jason....really mesmerizing situation going on tonight....seriousness is sobering and for that part of us that loves to see a cane spin...well its spinning tonight.
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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While Lily is very beautiful and impressive to those of us who follow hurricanes yr. after yr., I am very disturbed by the significant damage and probable loss of life Lily will cause today.
A few weeks ago someone on the board compared hurricanes to nascar racing. You want the speed, the intensity and the crashes, but then, you hold your breath hoping no one has died.
I watched individuals in the LA area being interviewed today on television. Some were even smiling, having never personally experiencing a hurricane passing over them, let alone a stage 4 hurricane. I was shocked and stunned to hear some of these individuals stating that they had decided to stay at home and were not going to evacuate. For those who refused to evacuate and take the direct hit from this storm, my thoughts and prayers are with you.
If they don't believe in a higher entity now, they will when Lily hits.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Here are a few sites with photos you might find of interest. Gusting to about 30mph here, some rain, nothing too bad. We still have cable and power.
http://citt.marin.cc.ca.us/ring/extras/tabasco.html
http://www.tabasco.com/html/historian_avery_island.html
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/mfonseca/avery.htm
http://www.uncommondays.com/states/la/places/junglegardens.htm
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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That was me with the nascar analogy.
here is a link to a page with a cool pic
http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropicalwea/ectwp.htm
look half way down. pic of water spouts caused by Lili ofshore
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Great analogy Troy. Being an avid Nascar fan myself, I appreciated what you were saying.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Following my math that I've been doing (primarily a way of passing time as I sit here in Florida feeling powerless), I've extrapolated a heading out and come up with this prediction:
Landfall of eye center around 0557ET (0457CT) just south of the southernmost point of White Lake, about 35 miles east of Grand Chenier.
Unless the storm changes course, though, it's all up in the air. If I'm reading my atlases correct, it looks like mostly swampland there where I think it will hit, so hopefully the initial damage won't be so bad afterall.....
Jay
-------------------- Londovir
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Interesting sites Steve...and some comments form our friends at AP...
By CAIN BURDEAU
.c The Associated Press
NEW IBERIA, La. (Oct. 2) - Nearly a half-million people in Louisiana and Texas were urged to clear out on Wednesday - some of them for the second time in a week - as a fearsome Hurricane Lili barreled toward the Gulf Coast with 140 mph winds.
``We have a real disaster in the making,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. ``This is going to be the worst hurricane to hit the Louisiana coast since reconnaissance data has been available.''
Resort towns boarded up, along with all 12 of Mississippi's Gulf Coast casinos, NASA's Mission Control in Houston, the nation's biggest oil import terminal, and the Tabasco bottling plant near the Louisiana coast.
``I got a funny feeling,'' ranch hand Wilson Miller said as he stocked up on cigarettes and sandwiches at a gas station near Lafayette. ``When we get back it will be under water and there won't be anything left.''
Lili was expected to come ashore in Louisiana on Thursday afternoon as a major, destructive hurricane, Category 4 on the five-point scale. Forecasters warned that some areas could be inundated with 6 to 10 inches of rain and a life-threatening storm surge of up to 20 feet.
About 143,000 people were urged to leave the Louisiana coast, while in Texas officials advised the 330,000 residents in two counties surrounding Beaumont and Port Arthur to head inland because of the threat of a 9-foot storm surge.
``Destination? I have no idea. But it's going to be north,'' said Glen Guidry, who stopped at a gas station on Interstate 10 west of Lafayette with his wife and five children.
Gail Harrington, her son, daughter, six other relatives and a dog crammed into a compact car to drive as far from the coast as they could.
``We tanked it up. Wherever that gets us, we'll go,'' Harrington said at a grocery store in Delcambre, La., a small town a few miles from the water's edge.
Hurricane-force winds - which extended outward 45 miles from the center of Lili - were expected to reach up to 150 miles inland. At 5 p.m. EDT, Lili was 285 miles south of New Orleans.
In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry signed a disaster declaration and corrections officials moved more than 3,000 inmates to inland lockups.
The storm forced the shutdown of Mission Control in Houston, delaying for nearly a week Wednesday's shuttle launch 900 miles away at Cape Canaveral, Fla. It marked the first time in 41 years of manned spaceflight that bad weather in Houston delayed a Florida launch.
At Louisiana's Avery Island, home of Tabasco hot pepper sauce, the McIlhenny Co. shut down its lone bottling plant.
``We'll be closed as long as it takes to get our power back and let our people clean out their homes,'' said executive vice president Tony Simmons. But he said hot sauce lovers need not worry: ``We're not anticipating anyone running out of Tabasco.''
Officials in Iberia Parish, La., ordered an evacuation Wednesday, but some residents complained they had no transportation to leave.
``It's hard to open a shelter when you're going to have 10 feet of water in it,'' parish emergency director Jim Anderson said. He said the parish might open what he called ``last resort'' shelters Thursday for those unable to leave.
Grand Isle, the storm-vulnerable island south of New Orleans, ordered its 1,500 residents to get out even as workers completed repairs on a 2,500 section of levee washed out last week by Tropical Storm Isidore.
Nearby, Port Fourchon was also shutting down and evacuating. An estimated 16 percent of the nation's crude oil and 17 percent of its natural gas come from rigs and platforms that require access to the port.
LOOP, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port about 20 miles off the coast, also closed. It is the biggest U.S. crude oil import terminal, handling about 1 million barrels of crude a day, or 11 percent of U.S. imports.
A hurricane warning stretched from just east of High Island, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana.
Earlier, Lili barreled through the Caribbean, killing seven people and driving tens of thousands of Cubans from their homes.
Lili is headed for Louisiana less than a week after Isidore dumped more than 20 inches of rain and caused $100 million in flood damage.
While Isidore did its damage with rain, Lili's winds and storm surge were the major threats.
Mayfield, head of the hurricane center, compared the storm to Hurricane Audrey, which struck Texas and Louisiana in 1957 and had 12- to 13-foot storm surges that pushed inland as far as 25 miles. The surges were responsible for the vast majority of the 390 deaths.
Chuck Frazier, emergency management director in Texas' Beaumont-area Orange County, said many residents still have not forgotten.
``This storm brought back a lot of memories for Audrey,'' he said. ``They take it pretty seriously.''
10/02/02 21:02 EDT
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: cocoa beach
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sped up just a tad...as of 1am eastern at NNW at 18 mph
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Good article Kimster...
Just got back from the beach... tides in Biloxi are about 3 feet above normal right now... water is covering approximately 40% of the sand beach in front of my house ... sand beach is about 100 yards wide from the sea wall to the water level..... for water to cover all the sand beach and get to the base of the seawall it would take an 8 foot tidal surge.. waves in Biloxi don't get that high per se, but are about 2-3 foot white caps right now.. my house is 20 foot above sea level.... Camille is the only storm in my life time that has put water over the sea wall at this location in town, which is one of the highest on the beach in Biloxi... I'm a lucky man... feel for the people of LA because this is going to be a long night for any that decided to ride it out near the center of the small core of destructive winds and tidal surge...
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Bill
Unregistered
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Face it. of the winds were over 200 mph @200 ft off the surface, the storm at that time was likely, almost certainly, a cat 5..may still be...it took 10 yrs for to own up the Andrew as a Cat 5.
Back to a NW heading for now--amazed they don't have NO under a hurricane warning...hope that pans out.
If it had been 100 miles further south and east when the turn started.....
IHS,
Bill
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Over the last 2 or 3 runs I've done of my math, I've noticed the track "bending" a bit eastward, and slowing a bit. I know that sounds crazy seeings as the official statement has increased the speed to 18, I think, but every time I run my numbers for each radar image update, my "pixel per hour" rate has gone down a bit over the last 3 or 4 runs. Just guesswork on my part, but eh....
If you're curious to see, I've put my track extensions online. It's located at Lili forecast track (my guess) The two track runs to the right edge of the runs I marked are the last two I've run. Looking at the lines seems to almost look to be a recurve northward beginning....I'll keep adding lines for as long as I stay up tonight.....
Jay
-------------------- Londovir
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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pressure is up to 955mb on the last recon, highest flight level winds 92kt.. eyewall open. lili is going through a replacement cycle, looks like... probably going to come ashore as a three now i suppose. make it 115-125mph. the clever clause about it coming ashore as a major hurricane.. but not necessarily a four.. might turn out to have been a smart move.
HF 0636z03october
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Nothing's too bad here right now. I took a 2 hour nap. Next rainband is about 35-40 minutes away per 7:18utc frame in NWS radar link
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
It's been raining pretty good, but I've only heard one 'howl' probably was a gust into the upper 30's. Based on the radar loop, original landfall projection in Iberia/St. Mary Parishes still looks pretty good. I got off at 1:00pm today and have off tomorrow. I can sleep tomorrow afternoon and night - might sneak in 1 more quick nap after the next band comes thru.
Steve
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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