hmmm
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Hmmm...Bill's "pure and simple" theory makes me wonder why those prayers didn't work for Andrew, which intensified greatly before landfall. Maybe not enough folks were praying? Somebody picking and choosing which prayers to answer? Oh, never mind, not a religious discussion board.
In addition to the SST's that somebody mentioned, dry air trained in from the west, and some shearing looked like it occured. Will be interesting to see what theories - other than just prayer (no, I'm not discounting it, really have no idea - just hope people look for an answer that will help predict things a little better than that) - come to light in the years to come.
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Brett
Unregistered
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"hmmm", whoever you are....great minds....
lol
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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God protects fools and drunks I guess there were not enough fools and drunks around during Andrew but Florida has apparently been well protected since!
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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(Hic) I resemble that remark! 
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I read in the Discussion that the drop in Lili's intensity is going to be well studied.
But like the official tracks and opinions now, will the methods of prediction they arrive at be listened to, or given too much power??
Something has been bothering me -- like alot of other states, there were people who could not evacuate for many reasons: no transportation, ill relatives, elderly parents, no shelters.
'nuff out of me. Back to lurking...
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cappycat
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Raceland, LA
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Just saw on WWL an interview with law ernforcement out in Terrebonne. Montegut, Dulac and Dularge are extremely flooded. Homes in Montegut with as much as 6-8 ft of water in them. Road way with 10 ft of water. Cocodrie also with severe flooding. That area was under mandatory evacuation for both Isidore and Lili. For Izzy, they were high and dry. I sure hope they heeded the warning this time. Residents say this is worse then the flooding they saw with Andrew.
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chevyman
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I remember John Hope saying one time that the conditions in a strong Hurricane ( cat 4/5 ) are alot like the conditions on Mars here on Earth, ie. unusual, short lived, very foreign. He explained the reasoning behind storms like Allen, Gilbert. Mitch, Bret, and why the lost there intensity's. just a thought!
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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hope the impact was to just a small area. a co-workers husband rode the storm out on a crew boat in lake charles. she is still on pins and needles. has anyone heard any damage assesments?
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anon
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I have to say it.
Could Lili's drop been a product of Dynogel?
I'm starting to become a believer.
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Kimmie at home
Unregistered
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Yeaaa, we made it through. Hope all in Louisiana are well! Will be praying for complete restoration for everyone.
No matter why the lost of power happened, we here in La. will always be eternally greatful. We began getting wind around 4:30 am. We may have received about 4 inches of rain. We never lost power, however, friends and family are without power even now. Transformers did blow, and many trees fell. Local tv stations had great coverage of the effects of Lili. I believe in the power of prayer, and I would rather give the credit to God than Dyna Gel. In my mind, it was a miracle.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Glad to read things seem within reason this afternoon Some
flooding , power problems, and wind damage occur with every hurricane, but Lili, for whatever reason, didn't do nearly as much as could have been imagined. To all the folks in LA, hope you get back to normal just as fast as you can. We all need to make a living, ya know.
I thought about this for awhile today, and came to the conclusion that the did alright with Lili. They really did almost peg her 48 hrs out, if not their errror wasn't by that much. I thought they took a big risk not putting NO under a hurricane watch, but they turned out to be right. I'm not going to take pot shots at them by saying something like "what if Lili ________?" because in the end Lili didn't. Nice job on this one guys.
I was going to write something about what seemed to me to be 'doomcasting' that was going on last night, but I've decided that now's not the time. Besides, since a huge disaster didn't play out before their eyes, they won't be here to read it anyway.
Great posts by just about everybody; I have picked up alot of good information and tips on this forum, I've really enjoyed being able to share my view of things with others, and have others share their's with me. I do hope that my poor attempts to use humor didn't bother anybody too much, I've just seen enough of life's bad days to know the sun usually manages to come up the next day.
Joe in JAX
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'm really glad to see the damage with Lili will be more category 2-ish than it could have been. Lili was a moderate hurricane, nothing more and nothing less. Will definitely be remembered for a long time and the "hurricane streak" is over. My thoughts and prayers are with those who were greatly effected by this storm.
Another thing...I'm beginning to think we've entered the new era of increased major hurricane landfalls in US. I also think that the EC is not going to get as much in the coming years as Dr. Gray has said. There is has been 4 years straight now with extremely powerful Caribbean storms threatening the US but never actually hitting. Lili just broke that "rule", and I think she marks the beginning of a major increase in US landfalling coming from the Caribbean. Sure, in a couple of years we will probably see a real bad season again (like 1999) just because we see those types of seasons every 5-6 years. But don't be surprised to see big Caribbbean threats from now on. This is something I feel we need to watch for in the coming years.
Watch the SW Caribbean early to middle of next week as some models indicate pressure falls down there. A prospect, but a slim one given we are still almost a week away from any such event.
Kyle should finally recurve...somewhere in between NC and Bermuda seems good. Basically, seems to be on track.
Kevin
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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They put us under a tornado watch until 10:00pm as some of the final bands are rotating around the eastern side of the storm. It's still gusting above 30 in the city as it has been most of the day. There is only one more potential of a flooding, training band, and that's over the northern Gulf.
As to dynogel, ABC 26 put up a closeup map of the water temperatures over the Gulf (don't know where they got the map). Anyway, the blowup to 4 and downgrade to 2 happened over water temperatures varying by 10 or more degrees. Obviously, the hot pocket that it hit yesterday am quickly increased the intensity. However, when the storm (last night) crossed some of the cooler pockets, it petered out. Then, just before landfall, it hit another warm pocket and tightened up a bit, but didn't have any real pressure falls or wind increases.
Overall, most of the state escaped pretty easily with some exceptions. They were hit pretty hard in Iberville Parish with winds felling trees and damaging roofs. St. Mary Parish had many downed oak trees. And lower Terrebonne (as reported above) is stuck under tidal flooding after a levee broke in 4 places near Montegut - inundating Montegut and Dulac (way down 'dere). Grand Isle suffered the usual damage and remains under water. In lower Lafourche and Jefferson, all of LA Hwy. 1 south of Golden Meadow remains closed as the water is 4-5' deep around Grand Isle, Port Fourchon et al. The city escaped any serious damage with the exception of a few damaged cars and rooftops from falling trees. There is some flooding in western Slidell (east of Lake Pontchartrain) and several camps have been damaged. Some of the same subdivisions that flooded when the winds switched to SW after Isidore have water flowing through them again.
Lili wasn't too bad. I'm greatful for the 1 1/2 days I got off of work and the beer, coffee and snacks I had during its duration. I'm going to crash early tonight to catch up on the sleep I lost yesterday. I'm also greatful that there really aren't any reports of injuries or fatalities from the storm in LA, though that obviously could change. My family is fine, and I had a great time with my kids watching the feeder bands roll in throughout the morning and hopefully imparting to them some of the appreciation that I have for mother nature.
I think we all need a pat on the back - amateurs and pros. We have the best hurricane forum I've ever found on the web. Extra special thanks to the "C" brothers for all their time, effort, and expense!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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How bout we give you guys the rest of the season off?
Glad to hear you and your family did OK. The decision to stay home turned out well for you, and it seemed you were prepared to take whatever action was needed to keep yourself and loved ones safe. That's all any of us can ever hope to do when put into a fix like you were. Nice job, Steve.
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I was born in Miami and have lived here my entire life. For sure we have more than our fair share of both drunks and fools. There is no doubt in my mind that as Andrew blew apart neighborhoods, two cities and an airforce base, a large percentage of southern dade county was down on their knees, with their families, praying, as their houses flew apart around them, and it obviously didn't do them any good.
Bill
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Hurricanes are engines so to speak and you need heat to get them going and even minor water temperature changes can make a massive difference.
Local met here mentioned it before landfall but I didn't give it that much thought... always a learning process.
Anyway, glad you are safe and sound and here..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Well, the season is just about over. Maybe one or two more storms to go this year. Dynogel, I don't think so. Maybe on a supercell yes, Hurricane NO. Glad to hear Steve, you and your family made out alright. Things could have been so much different if LiLi didn't loose much of her punch. I think all of us Hurricane addicts got a little taste of what mother nature had to offer this year. I'm not going to touch the GOD spared us issue. Wishcasters, I think we all have a little bit in us or we wouldn't be on this site. Dr. Gray off this year big time in my book. Just goes to prove you can't fool or predict mother nature. We still have a lot to learn about our ragging Planet called EARTH. 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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A friend of my from the great state of Louisiana sent this to me... After the stress of the past couple of weeks and especially with Lili, I thought we all could use a little humor... Hopefully my good neighbors to the west will take it tongue-in-cheek....
To ex-Louisiannans, present Louisiannans, and future Louisiannans:
Louisiana Hurricane Season Notes
We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Gulf of Mexico and making two basic meteorological points:
(1) There is no need to panic.
(2) We could all be killed.
Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Louisiana. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one."
Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:
STEP 1.
Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2.
Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3.
Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Louisiana.
We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:
HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE:
If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:
(1) It is reasonably well-built, and (2) It is located in Nebraska.
Unfortunately, if your home is located in South Louisiana, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they
might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss. Since Hurricane George, I have had an estimated 27 different home-insurance companies. This week, I'm covered by the Bob and Big Stan Insurance Company, under a policy which states that, in addition to my premium, Bob and Big Stan are entitled, on demand, to my kidneys.
SHUTTERS:
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors, and -- if it's a major hurricane -- all the toilets. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:
Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.
The disadvantage is that, because you make them yourself, they will fall off.
Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.
Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.
"Hurricane-proof" windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like
ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.
Hurricane Proofing Your Property:As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like
barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc. You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately).
Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.
EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Louisiana," you live in a low-lying area.) The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.
HURRICANE SUPPLIES: If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Louisiana tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM.
In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:
23 flashlights
At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off,to be the wrong size for the flashlights.
Bleach (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)
A 55-gallon drum of underarm deodorant.
A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)
A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Camille; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)
$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.
Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.
Good luck, and remember: It's great living in Paradise.....!
Sorry for the length of the post... hopefully it will remain quiet in the tropicals long enought for some of us to catch our breath..
Edited by Frank P (Fri Oct 04 2002 01:26 PM)
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cooltiger
Unregistered
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Lili proved that the hurricane forecasters with all the new technology, computers, satellites, and planes have a long way to go in predicting hurricane intensities.
While we here in La. lucked out and the windspeed of Lili without warning dropped 45 mph in 6 hours , it could certainly go the other way.
New Orleans' worst nightmare is a cat 1 storm tooling 10 mph towards N. O. from the southeast and without warning jump to a category 4 and gain forward speed in a sudden rush to the coast. Very few evacuate N. O. with a 85 mph storm coming. Until the forecasters get a better handle on predicting hurricane intensities there will always be a very real danger that this could happen.
Carmen in 74, Opal, and now Lili all prime examples of just how fickle these storms can be. The track is one thing the intensity forecast the other.
Hopefully next time the day after won't show a weak hurricane rapidly intensifying to a 3 or 4 at the last minute and throwing it's full fury onto an unprepared populace. How many times can you cry wolf before the wolf shows up? I don't know, but one day the wolf will bite and bite hard much like it did for Andrew, Audrey, and Camille.
The challenge to all the mets and especially ti the TPC in Miami will be to get a better understanding and a better handle on these mighty storms, and to maintain the confidence of those who rely on their information. The challenge is there. Let's all hope that it is met and met soon before there is a real worst case scenario.
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Moving onto to Kyle. ZZZZZZZZZZZ. Well, anyhow Kyle has separated from his convection and one wonders (ME) whether the mid-level will reform a surface low further to the SE of the existing center (as it did once already). Kyle wants to move NW. But The flow wants to fight this. Or, vicey vercy, Kyle wants to fight the flow. IMO center reformation is less likely, but not out of the question looking at the loops. Whether or not this occurs, Kyle may hang around awhile and be aggravating. But much less aggravation than having to clean up after Lili. Interestingly, the models (NOGAPS) try to develop an area in the BOC early next week, so that and the Caribbean seem to be the places to watch (the BOC not being what those in the north central GOM want to hear. Question for the masses. WIll we see another named system this year, and if so, where do we think it may come from. Thoughts??? Cheers!! Steve H.
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