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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
5PM Update
      #6020 - Tue Oct 08 2002 04:38 PM

Kyle now a TD, but more of a threat to Florida and moving faster. From the NHC:
Kyle weakens to a depression...again...
Interests in the northwest Bahamas and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Kyle.


--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: time for a downgrade
      #6021 - Tue Oct 08 2002 04:56 PM

What you say is quite true....however, this season I am not willing to bet against a system that has already become #8 all time longest lived tropical system, one that has been written off several times. So, case made or not by Kyle, I stand by my "I'll not be surprised if it is breezy and wet" this weekend in Central Florida....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Marktropical
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update
      #6022 - Tue Oct 08 2002 05:11 PM

Latest satellite pictures do show a weak incease of thunderstorms to the southeast of the center. Even though Kyle was downgraded I do expect tommorow to show a developing storm heading for central Florida. Upper leveles wil improve as Kyle moves more southward. The farther south the better chance for development. If kyle makes south of 28 degrees then development will occur. This is no big storm but it could turn out to be a very wet system for Florida this weekend. Best forecast is landfall between WPB and Ft. Pierce. GUESS??

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: 5PM Update
      #6023 - Tue Oct 08 2002 05:22 PM

Took a few days off tracking...a little hiatius for me. Good thing I got the rest because it appears Florida is going to be dealing with Kyle by Friday. NHC only keeps the intensity at 30 knots through the period, but that simply means they are extremely uncertain. I expect Kyle to make landfall somewhere between Melbourne and Cocoa Beach with intensity ranging from a moderate TS to a minimal hurricane. Somewhere in between is what I favor most at this point. The convection has become slight more numerous in the past hour, but we will have to see if this trend persists.

Another thing I should add: who says weak systems are slouches? I have a feeling Kyle is going to be a messy ball of deep convection by the time he gets to Florida, not a naked circulation with dying convection like Edouard was. Flooding and tornadoes are a distinct possibility with this type of system, and all people in Florida need to keep a close eye on Kyle.

I will also add that I am leaving for a trip to the Smoky Mountains late Friday afternoon, Kyle's presence could bring some bad communting weather. Our plan was to get to the SC/NC border by Saturday afternoon...we'll have to drive slower with the possible heavy rains that Kyle may bring.

The Bucs are 4-1 and are looking to take control of the NFC South, Saints look out! The panthers have lost two in a row and have begun their slipping-off act. The Falcons would need a miracle to turn things around. Looks like a good, tight two-team race.

Kevin


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Dan
Unregistered




Kyle
      #6024 - Tue Oct 08 2002 08:00 PM

Sure. I will be looking for Thunderstorm Kyle to come right over my house this weekend. I will keep my eye on it but it looks really bad in the latest satelite image.

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update
      #6025 - Tue Oct 08 2002 08:04 PM

If our friend Kyle doesn't get a burst of convection out of him soon, looks like he could dissipate. At 5 pm he looked to be wrapping some convection in, but now he is waning. There is subsidence to his NW and an ULL to his south. He needs to get into the moisture in the south. It's hard to tell how his LLC is even on Dvorak loops. They may keep him still as a depression at 11pm, or may dissipate him. Cheers!! Steve H.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??
      #6026 - Tue Oct 08 2002 08:12 PM

CONGRATULATIONS JOE! You also became a WEATHER GURU just in time to greet the multi-talented , guess what I am now
------------- Kyle.
Looks like it is going to be a long week.
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: 5PM Update
      #6027 - Tue Oct 08 2002 08:37 PM

Hey Steve,
At the 5p discussion Beven said that Kyle's center looks well defined,but it is hard to tell now on the visibles. It's a very hard call with Kyle because he has made so many come backs. But let's face it, he is either going to slowly fade away into the sunset or he is going to go out with a bang. If he can get thru another day he should be in a little better environment and the ridge should start to build. But if I had to place a survival bet on Kyle, I would bet that he will at least hang on enough to make his name famous!

PS Hey Mary,There is a lot of truth to your thoughts.

Toni


--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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ROB H
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL.
Re: 5PM Update
      #6028 - Tue Oct 08 2002 09:42 PM

Looks like Kyle is history, Took one look at Florida and
said im outta here.

Edited by ROB H (Tue Oct 08 2002 09:43 PM)


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??
      #6029 - Tue Oct 08 2002 09:48 PM

Thunder Storm Kyle seems to lost his thunder, and at 11 may lose his storm. Is the streak over? I mean there is nothing, zero, nada, going on with him at the moment. I became a guru just to declare Kyle dead?

Joe in JAX


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??
      #6030 - Tue Oct 08 2002 10:14 PM

OK Joe & Rob, check out the shortwave IR loop, there still may be a little hope. Let me know your thoughts. Have you seen the latest GFDL run? If that little scene comes to pass we may never get rid of Kyle and he will give Ginger a run for her money.(LOL don't you just love those sayings that you grew up with, looks even funnier when you write it)

Hey Steve H. what are you putting in the water over there???

Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 346
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re:Kyle Will Live And Get Under the Ridge??
      #6031 - Tue Oct 08 2002 10:21 PM Attachment (603 downloads)

Well Kyle dont look to healthy, thats about all i got to say. if he survises he is coming to florida and thats lookin like abig IF at this late hour.

i am gonna see how this file thingy works


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??
      #6032 - Tue Oct 08 2002 10:42 PM

>>check out the shortwave IR loop, there still may be a little hope<<

Well, there is a spin there.

>>Have you seen the latest GFDL run? <<

The GFDL is a member of the Axis of Evil, and it's prediction will not be alowed to happen. That is the forth different outcome that it has forecast in the last, hmmmmm, four runs? Toni, I hate that model, but NHC loves it for sure. It hit my back yard this morning!

My Jags go to Tennesse to play the hated Titans, who at 1-4 also have a low-level center but no convection.


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??
      #6033 - Tue Oct 08 2002 11:09 PM

I think that Kyle is rotating around that axis of evil. Maybe that has been his problem all along, we may have to perform an exorcism!
WOW finally some excitement! You know I know what the GFDL does and it has changed it's mind almost every run today. But I am too curious not to look.
Even if nothing else becomes of Kyle we can at least say that he has made a few of us laugh.
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge??
      #6034 - Tue Oct 08 2002 11:20 PM

We waited to long to perform the exorcism. 11p discussion says that Kyle is going to poop out right in my back yard in about 72hrs.

Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
kyle checking out?
      #6035 - Tue Oct 08 2002 11:56 PM

kyle is a low cloud swirl this evening. there may be enough subsidence entrained on the nw side to prevent a recovery. it only figures that kyle leaves shear and heads toward the warmest waters yet, only to take a big drink of desert air and spin down. thats how it goes with tropical systems.
HF 0357z09october


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: kyle checking out?
      #6036 - Wed Oct 09 2002 12:14 AM

Maybe we should start thinking about MARCO. I have to admit that Kyle is just about a done deal.
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Cool Breeze
Unregistered




Kyle is coming
      #6037 - Wed Oct 09 2002 12:16 AM

Kyle is coming an I'm in his way!!! I do NOT think we will have tornado's or any bad weather. Kyle is just a rain system at this point.
Buc's are indeed 4 - 1 and look to be the best in the South.


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Steveunplugged
Unregistered




Kyle & Bucs...
      #6038 - Wed Oct 09 2002 02:03 AM

Kyle was still looking interesting on this afternoon's visibiles. He doesn't look like squat on the nighttime IR. If the model trends continue, and he's able to recover (which he has every time he's petered out) he'll be at least a TD if not a semi-potent TS at landfall in Florida late this week. If he does become a GOM problem thereafter, I'd look east of Ft. Walton for 2nd landfall. A pretty strong coldfront is liable to blast through TX and probably even the LA Gulf Coast, so that means if there is anything in the Gulf. It's headed North then Northeast. Early call - just for fun - landfall around Jupiter with 2nd landfall around Indian Pass.

Having defeated 4 playoff teams from 2001 - including the Bucs - it's clear who the best team in the NFC is. After we dispose of Washington and San Francisco, there will be no doubt who rules the NFC South.

Steve


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
SHOWER KYLE
      #6039 - Wed Oct 09 2002 05:31 AM

I think thunderstorm Kyle should be weakened to shower Kyle. Looks like it is headed towards Ft. Pierce on Thursday evening. I wonder if the NHC is keeping it as a depression just in case it reintensifies? 5 am discussion still mentions the possibility. Just don't see this thing doing anything.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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