meranto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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892 mbar:
5 mbar to go for the atlantic record
23mbar to go for the all time record
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I did notice that the NOAA Gulfstream was doing a pre-storm flight earlier.
They flew as far west as 90W. I seem to remember the pressure from the dropsonde being 1014mb.
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 03:15 AM)
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Things are getting a little nerve wracking on the west coast here. My dad lives directly in the path and I'm about 50 miles north of him. I realize that is subject to change but I think we can all agree that this thing is coming towards the west coast. If I can make a suggestion to save a lot of people a lot of time and frustration. If you live near the water and have to leave, as I may have to don't travel half way across the state. Find a sturdy constructed building 25-50 miles inland and ride it out if you can avoid getting stuck in traffic, because the main concern with this will be surge. You can hide from the wind but you can't run from the water.
Hurricane '04(Port Charlotte, FL)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Please...can anyone talk about the dynamics of how the eyewall would implode? Is the recon still in there? What would happen / would there be a shock wave?
Has this ever happened before?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 06Z SHIPS actually indicates a little more weakening before landfall in FL than it had indicated in the last run, suggesting a landfall intensity of around 100 knots. It maxes out the intensity at 155 knots in 6 hours, in case anyone was interested in the gory details (that model guidance is basically useless in the short term considering the extremely unusual structure of right now).
The latest (00Z) track is further west, bringing the center over the extreme eastern Yucutan peninsula. It still indicates landfall at about the same location in Florida as before. It also indicates more of a northerly bend as the storm exits Florida, bringing the center not too far off the NC coast by 126 hours (the end of the forecast run).
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 03:18 AM)
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mojorox
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
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Bob, I'd wait till tomorrow and see what the models do and what your local authorities say. The last thing you want to do is evacuate somewhere and have the track change like happened to many who evacuated to Orlando for only to end up with him going right over them here..
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jmk818
Registered User
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What was the last time 3 cat 5's formed in the atlantic basin, and what year was the last time that 3 cat 5's formed and made US landfall?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Great Point Mojorox. I had forgotten about that.
Check your 06Z SHIPS text. It's not indicating 'LAND".
Storm over Land would list as a negative number in the LAND (KM) line. The closest this run brings it is 93km. Or 60miles.
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jmk818
Registered User
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Quote:
Bob, I'd wait till tomorrow and see what the models do and what your local authorities say. The last thing you want to do is evacuate somewhere and have the track change like happened to many who evacuated to Orlando for only to end up with him going right over them here..
But i wouldn't wait til the last minute. Plan ahead, and keep to the plan. Always expect the unexpected.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I think it is too early to do anything except make a plan and pack sensitive belongings. This storm has intensified so fast and the temperatures and conditions ahead of this storm are not consistent. It could de-escalate just as fast and be limping along as a low Tropical storm by the time it gets to Florida. The currents that are expected to accelerate its forward speed will have to kick in to 20mph or better for it to have time to maintain the capacity it is at tonight. I remember that was not all that threatening until he started to enter the Gulf. Then he blew up. This seems to be doing the reverse in a general sense. But since we do not know what a 2mile wide eye will do at CAT5 level winds this far out from Florida, it is going to be a definite science lesson. Try to be calm so that you can enjoy the dynamics of the storm rather than fear them. It is thus far, like a serial TV show, you keep tuning in to find out what will happen next.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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hi
Registered User
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hi there,
i'm on vacation here in port charlotte/sarasota florida, my flight is scheduled on friday at 5pm out of tampa. do you think this storm will affect my flight at all or is there a way i can find out if it will be anywhere near here by friday day?
i have a bit of anxiety about this storm, the worst storm i've ever seen was an F4 tornado (edmonton, ab, 1987) but the word hurricane just strikes a few more nerves to me. sorry for seeming so panicked.
j
storm won't be there by friday. your flight out should be o.k. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 19 2005 04:10 AM)
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Big Tk
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
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It is way too premature to take any action. Keep in mind the storm is still 3-4 days from making landfall. I'll feel more confident when the models come into better agreement with the Upper level system to our west. We should no more by Thursday. Remember any slight deviation to the left or right will make a big difference where this monster makes landfall.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Margie. I'm not a MET. As you know.
Tornadoes...rope out when they collapse. I don't think is small enough to do that.
I don't recall hearing about an 8, 4 or a 2nm Eye.
And I'm not seeing an starting to take place. (although I haven't looked in an hour).
I guess we will have to wait and see. What if anything happens. I do know that there should be some huge waves passing through the Yucatan Channel in the next few days. Provided doesn't collapse from within.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Yeah I thought about roping out and I didn't see how that could apply.
If I knew the recon wasn't going to try to go through again I think I'd feel a lot better, and then could just watch what was going to happen in an abstract sense.
Funny thing is the eye seems to be holding, on sat images. The convection is continuing to go down and spread out. I assume that means the windfield gradient is flattening out into a more normal distribution from the eyewall?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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When hit Port Charlotte, we here in Tampa Bay area were getting a lot of wind and rain. It will depend on how fast the forward speed of this storm is by Friday. If you can get an earlier flight out than the one you have now, it would give you a little better chance of not being grounded at the airport. (My guess is that being in an airport would not be a comfortable place to ride out a storm.).
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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42057 Buoy, located 85nm ENE of the present center, is showing a constant pressure drop. 0.02" over a 3 hr window.
Seas have come down a bit. From 17.4 to 16.7 at present.
Winds are 38.9kts down from 40.8kts.
This is in the last 3 hours. I didn't check beyond that.
So 85nm away the winds aren't too terribly bad. must be tightly wrapped.
It's hard to tell but it looks like RECON might be making another pass through the center. They are NE bound
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 03:47 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i was looking at that too.... but i don't have the exact location of that buoy.....i do know the Station 42057 has been re-established 162.82 nautical miles northwest of its original position to reduce the shoaling hazards experienced in storms.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
10-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
17.60 N 80.75 W ( 17°36'16" N 80°44'58" W )
so 162.82nm NW from above? red or black?
wish they say hey it's over here at....i think its actually farther away than we think.... or i might be wrong
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 19 2005 03:58 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Convection increasing again now.
Cloud tops getting colder all around the ...going from blue to dk blue on the wv.
This thing isn't over yet. What other surprises does have in store for us this morning?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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42057 WESTERN CARIBB 17.60N/ 80.75W
The lat/ longs are at the same location.
Different format.
DD.DDD-decimal format
DD MM SSS-degrees, minutes, seconds (marine format, so the ships know where it is)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I would guess that the eye has contracted about as much as is possible. Since a 2 mile wide eye is unprecedented, it's hard to say exactly what will happen from here. Chances are, the eyewall will simply fall apart (causing the eye to disappear on satellite), or else it may slowly open back up again and die a slower death. There is a definite outer wind maximum in the recon data, so an eyewall-replacement cycle is inevitable.
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