crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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After reviewing, I would tend to agree.
New 18Z runs coming out and are almost identical to 12Z, with landfall in SW Florida on Monday.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Loc: florida
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I also see that N/W movement mabe it finally starting to make a turn torward the north.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Do you think it head north from the Keys over the penninsula or keeping east going towards the Bahamas and then north?
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zacker20
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Quote:
I also see that N/W movement mabe it finally starting to make a turn torward the north.
I'm looking at the lastest superimposed IR loop, and I see the slight jog to the north. However, this could be a wobble. As you know, the eye of this storm has been osicilliating all over the place. Generally, however, the storm is still moving in a WNW direction.
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jusforsean
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I am trying to see the models ( my amature self) and it seems that they dont take the storm very far at all not even entering the gulf in 96 hours out. Could it be because they were being updated? Does anyone know if the new model runs are in agreeance with eachother?? Do they keep it on a south florida track or yucatan? Thanks Keep our fingers crossed for this one I have been blessed this season I bought a manufactured home 6 months ago and so far so good. Can't say the same for some neighbors, but this strorm coming in from the west puts my house in a whole new path. Keeping my fingers crossed for all.
jusforsean
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
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Do you think it head north from the Keys over the penninsula or keeping east going towards the Bahamas and then north?
No. Once it gets caught up in that trough it will accelerate eastward towards the bahamas. Once it gets close to the bahamas, it will get caught up in a mid-latitude low that will pull it rapidly northward up the Atlantic coast. The trough that pulls it eastward will stall out over the pennisula and block it from making any northward movement up the pennisula. It will be moving under that trough and once it bypasses it, then it will begin a rapid northward movement.
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StPeteBill
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Being an amature myself and a new member here does this all mean that we can truly feel relaxed here in the St Pete/Tampa area? Is there any possibility of the thing coming due north towards the p'handle?
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
I am trying to see the models ( my amature self) and it seems that they dont take the storm very far at all not even entering the gulf in 96 hours out. Could it be because they were being updated? Does anyone know if the new model runs are in agreeance with eachother?? Do they keep it on a south florida track or yucatan?
No the new model runs have finished updating and that is their track. They have slowed the storm down considerably, due to the fact that the upper-level low that was supposed to dip down into the Gulf and accelerate North, then northeastward is not going to make it that far south. Due to this change, the models have responded in different ways, with the most reliable model (GFDL) choosing a Yucatan landfall, which is appearing to be the most likely scenario. I see a West Central (Tampa, FL) or Southwest Florida (Naples) landfall becoming more unlikely with this new information, especially West Central Florida.
Bottom line: Keep your eye on it. The forecast is not certain, by any means.
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Thunderbird12
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Pretty remarkable that this thing has been pretty much steady-state all day at 892 mb, just "hanging in there" at a pressure that is just barely higher than the previous all-time Atlantic record.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
After reviewing, I would tend to agree.
New 18Z runs coming out and are almost identical to 12Z, with landfall in SW Florida on Monday.
...For your benifit, the 18Z run does not incorporate any new rawinsonde data. It is run of the 6 hour grid values from the previous run; in this case 12Z.
...That being said, it becomes very intriguing to me that beyond 120 hours that the has come about 3 degree longitude closer to the New England Coast by 132 hours than the 12Z run. It is almost suggestive that something is poisoning the initialization because the physics of the model do not change, just the data. In other words, it cannot even agree with the down wind result when using it's own 6 hour interval for initialization....
...That my friends is significant.
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zacker20
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Quote:
Being an amature myself and a new member here does this all mean that we can truly feel relaxed here in the St Pete/Tampa area? Is there any possibility of the thing coming due north towards the p'handle?
There's always a possibility, but the chances are HIGHLY unlikely just because of the way the upper-level winds are looking. The key player in pulling to the north will be an upper-level trough coming in from the north. However, this upper-level trough is not as strong as the upper-level low that was expected to pull to the north in the first place (this low won't be pulling anymore because it is moving too fast and staying too far north)
And because has slowed down, it won't make it to the Gulf of Mexico (if it makes it at all) until 2:00 PM Friday. By that time, the trough is forecasted to be across West Central Florida and will continue to move further south at a pretty good clip. This will block to the east taking it across the Florida Keys possibly and Northern Cuba. If will have any impact on Florida, it will be in the extreme southern part of the state.
Residents in the Tampa area should not let their guard down by any means, but just know that a landfall in your area is looking more unlikely with every advisory.
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Clark
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It is very, very tough to do distributed computing with the current state of computer models. Due to the time continuity of a model, you can't just assign an individual computer one time stamp to do because it depends on other computers doing the prior time stamp(s); this is unlike the SETI@home project, where you can assign a particular region to search at a time to individual computers...spatial dependence is much easier.
Essentially, a computer model is going to be constrained speed-wise by the slowest machine on the cluster. We are in the process of upgrading all of the machines on our cluster to 2.8GHz processors and dedicating 16 CPUs to the effort; this should help speed things up somewhat. For distributed computing to work, you'd need a large amount of fast machines always connected to the Internet with a high speed connection, all able to work in concert with each other -- not as individual cells. That's tough to do even with the best distributed computing solutions. If you want the best model, one you'd need someone to write a model that could handle distributed computing -- currently no such model exists, with the current models being designed to run in parallel computing environments -- and add in all of the layers of complexity that lead to things like the & model (e.g. data assimilation and such). Unfortunately, it's just not feasible computationally and writing such a model would probably take 5 years.
As for the track of the system, I'm still not buying the storm not being captured by the trough. I don't have any large reason to go away from model consensus, though the trends I am seeing suggest the turn may be harder to the right than initially anticipated. This would be good news for the west coast and bad news for the east coast of Florida were it to pan out, but I'm not sold on that yet either. Reintensification is possible over the next day, depending on how long it takes that inner eye to collapse and how long it takes for that outermost eye (the 45mi one) to contract inward to bring about a new cycle.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Clark
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That's not quite right. They are doing 18Z launches all over the SE US right now in anticipation of this storm, as they do with any threatening system (yes, they even did it with Tammy)...I was witness to one about 5hr ago now, and the 00Z sounding is about to go up behind my shoulder now. All of that data was incorporated into the 18Z initialization, I'm sure, along with all of the airplane reports (AIRREPs), surface observations, and remote sensing data that they obtain from the satellite-based sensing platforms.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
That's not quite right. They are doing 18Z launches all over the SE US right now in anticipation of this storm, as they do with any threatening system (yes, they even did it with Tammy)...I was witness to one about 5hr ago now, and the 00Z sounding is about to go up behind my shoulder now. All of that data was incorporated into the 18Z initialization, I'm sure, along with all of the airplane reports (AIRREPs), surface observations, and remote sensing data that they obtain from the satellite-based sensing platforms.
Wait a minute... so your saying in quiescent times they rely on the tradition method but do special launches... ? - also, if you're responding, is the data density the same..?
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:00 PM)
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Link:
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/weather/misc/change_msg.1019
Quote:
NOUS42 KWNO 191513
ADMNFD
SPECIAL DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1513 UTC WED OCT 19 2005
THE 12Z IS COMPLETE. THE HAS STARTED WITH 30
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP.
12Z RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - 10145...UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NKX/72293 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM/GFS.
THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the ?????????
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the ?????????
I would say "no". It would explain screwy runs for the , but not the .
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Perhaps, but it depends... Do they mean special dropsondes, or do they mean the normal data was missing?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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As for distributed computing, there is a distributed computing climatology study under way: http://climateprediction.net/ . It runs on both the BOINC system (same as Seti@Home uses) or under it's own system. It takes about 600 hours/model run on an Athlon XP 3000 or Pentium 4 3.0GHz.
As for model runs such as the , the problem is timeliness. You can send out a packet of data for analysis, but can you get it back in a timely manner? It might be a couple days before you get that little piece back. So, distributed computing is fine for long term, distinct-solution systems, but it doesn't really work for something like a 6-hourly model that every layer of data builds on the previous one.
--RC
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
Quote:
THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the ?????????
I would say "no". It would explain screwy runs for the , but not the .
Actually Hugh, that may not be "entirely" true and perhaps Clark can verify this since he seems to have the inside scoop on sonding schedules... I fairly certain that the is initialized off the parameters I'm afraid...
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tpratch
Moderator
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Loc: Maryland
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Oh, I never said it would be easy. I believe the chunks of data could be broken up responsibly enough that were (highly subjunctive) the right system developed, there are enough people with computers capable enough to make a difference.
Well, guess I'll have to get started on coding the proof of concept now, won't I? 
Hey, if you can get it done, we'll be more than happy to set it up and everything!  -Clark
Edited by Clark (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:23 PM)
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