Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)
dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59551 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:50 PM

I believe that Wilma is going to remain stationary for a time while she goes through the ERC.
I think that during this period she will lose some of her energy and that, by the 11pm,
we'll see her as a cat4 150mph hurricane.

My reasoning : she will be stationary for some time over somewhat cooler SST's with lower convection.
I believe that Wilma will suffer from inertia as she tries to get moving again, exacerbated by the ridging
directly to her west.

These are purely my observations over the last 12 hours. I have not looked at any models.

Since I am new to this and still learning the ropes I would welcome any comments, good or bad.

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: dave foster]
      #59552 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:54 PM

Anyone hearing about a NHC Press Conf @ 4:45 to discuss the possibility of a stall by Wilma?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
komi
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 43
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: dave foster]
      #59553 - Wed Oct 19 2005 03:57 PM

OK guys, can someone tell me, to go in Okeechobe for fishing or not .. .(just joking)

Interesting thing happen with those computer models ... Dunno what to think, who is more confused now ...

I think all we will get some idea tomorrow morning what is on the way, and on whos way ..


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 94
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: komi]
      #59556 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:01 PM

Wilma is still moving, and still on track with NHC plots for now anyways. I think the models got fed some bad data, or didn't know how to handle Wilma oscillating all over the place. Eyewall replacement cycle is underway and you can clearly see it on visible sat imagery.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: dave foster]
      #59557 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:03 PM

Quote:

I believe that Wilma is going to remain stationary for a time while she goes through the ERC.
I think that during this period she will lose some of her energy and that, by the 11pm,
we'll see her as a cat4 150mph hurricane.

My reasoning : she will be stationary for some time over somewhat cooler SST's with lower convection.
I believe that Wilma will suffer from inertia as she tries to get moving again, exacerbated by the ridging
directly to her west.

These are purely my observations over the last 12 hours. I have not looked at any models.

Since I am new to this and still learning the ropes I would welcome any comments, good or bad.




Hi,
Actually, the depth of warm water in her area is still deep enough to sufficiently maintain the prior intensity.. It's more likely she's entered an Eyewall Replacement Cycle and this appears to be the primary cause for weakening trend... I wouldn't be surprised either if she's a cat-4 by the 11pm advisory, perhaps even 8... Whether she returns to cat 5 there after will probably be a race between subtle break down in her current awesome u/a structure vs the rate of contraction of her new eyewall - currently developing and plainly discernable on both microw and vis imagery.

As to stationary thinking, she is actually not really stationary. Her last advisory had her moving wnw at 7mph - granted, not in any hurry.

I'm not really sure what you mean by 'suffer from inertia'.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 14
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: charlottefl]
      #59558 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:06 PM

I was just going to ask for opinions on what was going on....the site has gotten a little quiet since the latest computer models came out. Can we get some of the mets to comment on what they think is going on? I am supposed to have someone come to Orlando from Tallahassee for an interview on Saturday and I don't know what to tell her! I was all set to cancel until I saw the GFDL and BAMM model updates.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
iuhoosiers
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 16
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: MikeC]
      #59559 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:08 PM

Hey!! do you guys think that Wilma now has A BETTER chance of just stalling out in the yucatan as some of the most recent models are suggesting?? Please feed me some info cause i don't know whether to leave FL and go on a trip i had planned a month ago

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: HCW]
      #59560 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:11 PM

Quote:

Could the shift in the models be a result of data from the P4 getting fed to the computers ?



You bring up a good point.

Recon data shows 149kt max flt winds in NW quad (corrected).

Vortex 141kt in S quad, concentric eyewalls at 5 & 10 miles, pressure still 892.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Wed Oct 19 2005 04:31 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59561 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:11 PM

As it relates to intertia, a storm doesnt really suffer intertia from starts and stops. I agree with the concept of a moving car and stop and go, where you get a whip lash effect, but it never comes to a really comes to an abrupt hault. I have seen eye walls become displaced, but usually motion is only one part of the scenario.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59562 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:19 PM

Quote:

As it relates to intertia, a storm doesnt really suffer intertia from starts and stops. I agree with the concept of a moving car and stop and go, where you get a whip lash effect, but it never comes to a really comes to an abrupt hault. I have seen eye walls become displaced, but usually motion is only one part of the scenario.




...i'm aware of that...
that's why i was wondering what the individual meant...
i like the analogy of hurricanes are like logs in a river...
suppose you place a light weight log on the banks of a moving river and give it a shove out into the current...after some interval of time, the log's direction from the shove begins to yield to the perpedicular motion of the water; the result, if you plot the change on a two dimensional surface it makes a curved motion.
if you take an even heavier log and shove it into the same river (having the same rate of perpendicular fluid flow) the heavier log will have more momentum and thus be carried farther out into the current before it begins to yield to the perpendicular flow. a graphical presentation of its rate of change in direction will be a slower acceleration.
by the coincidence the analogy works in that strong hurricanes have more resistence to direction changes in the steering field because they can 'create their own environment' (not my words). they too have a slower accelaration.

come to think of it...could be a partial reason for the erratic 12Z guidance, becuase the initial trigger for pulling Wilma up may no longer be sufficient to doing the deed, and she therefore is getting left behind... if so, fascinating feed-back scenario!

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 04:25 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
nicolew
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 12
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #59563 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:20 PM

Yep - on his hourly updates here in Miami, Bryan Norcross has been mentioning the 4:45 news conference with Max Mayfield at the NHC but hasn't said the purpose. All the stations here in Miami will be cutting in to broadcast it live - and they're also saying that there will be a mandatory evacuation for all Keys residents starting at noon tomorrow. College football games (the Miami game in particular) have been cancelled for Saturday and Max Mayfield made a comment during his press conference just before noon today that his daughter is Homecoming princess this year and he told her her dance on Saturday would likely be cancelled.

How long of a stall and delay in arrival do you think will happen?



Quote:

Anyone hearing about a NHC Press Conf @ 4:45 to discuss the possibility of a stall by Wilma?




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Alta888
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 1
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: leetdan]
      #59564 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:22 PM

HI MIKEC,
FORGIVE ME FOR BEING A TOTAL IDIOT....BUT, WHAT DO THE INTITIALS STAND FOR, FOR THE COMPUTER MODELS GIVEN ON THE COMPOSITE COMPUTER MODELS TRACK MAP ON Skeetobite? I'M HERE IN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI WITH A BIG DISASTER RELIEF TEAM AND I DON'T REALLY WANT TO NOW GO BACK HOME AND HAVE TO HANDLE A DISASTER THERE. KNOW WHAT I MEAN? I'M FROM THE NATURE COAST, JUST NORTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER. WHATDOYATHINK? DO I REALLY HAVE TO GO HOME? OR WHAT?
THX, ALTA888


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DrewC
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 10
Loc: Auburndale, FL
GFS possibility [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59565 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:25 PM

After looking at the GFS (and related GFDL), it appears that they are starting to respond to the non-merging of the lows that were over CA and AK. (The ones that Colleen and Genesis were talking about last night). It was assumed that if they did not merge that the 1st low would turn more polewise and pull Wilma on a more northward track. It appears that the GFS has instead decided that without them merging, and with Wilma getting stronger and not moving north fast enough, that the trough won't get deep enough into the gulf to influence Wilma. This causes her to drift over the Yucatan until the trough pushes further south (across Florida), catching her on the tail-end and pulling her east across Cuba. I don't know that I buy it, but as the models show, anything is still possible at this point.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 14
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: nicolew]
      #59566 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:26 PM

Ok, it just keeps getting stranger.....weird model runs, a news conference from NHC, mandatory evacuations in the Keys (even though according to new model runs, Wilma is supposed to stall),....I don't know about everyone else but I AM GETTING MORE CONFUSED. Usually the closer the storm gets, the more accurate the information. What the heck is going on?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: nicolew]
      #59567 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:26 PM

I do not think they will announce a stall. This is the first time we have seen this stall scenario and it wouldnt be prudent to do that. NHC has always been concerned about people not taking the storm seriously and also in being vigalant.

I think he is going to just report in and let people know all across the pennisula that they need to keep their guard up. Watch the storm, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59568 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:28 PM

Vortex Data Message

000
URNT12 KNHC 192017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/19:56:20Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
083 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2152 m
D. 65 kt
E. 122 deg 010 nm
F. 285 deg 141 kt
G. 201 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO5-10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A Wilma OB 18
MAX FL WIND 141 KT S QUAD 19:52:00 Z


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: nicolew]
      #59569 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:29 PM

Met in Tampa now saying that possibly Wilma will take a similar Mitch run, (((((not a given but a possibility)))), not making it to Fl,

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sara33
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59570 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:30 PM

Anyone know how accurate LBAR has been this year and why it is so different from the other models
Thanks in advance
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: sara33]
      #59571 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:33 PM

The LBAR is a very old model and is not considered to be a reliable model by today's standards.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: sara33]
      #59572 - Wed Oct 19 2005 04:33 PM

Vortex max flt winds 141kt in S quad, concentric eyewalls at 5 & 10 miles, pressure still 892, temp diff 7deg.

ERC is beginning.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 801 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 60911

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center