scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Its the same Will...nothing has changed...........................
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dkpcb
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Panama City Beach Florida
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This is a link to on IR Satellite animation of .
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html
DK
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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The strike probabilities decreased for Ft. Myers and Naples by 1 percentage pt, but remained the same for Marco Island (7), Key West (9) and Tampa (5). The also added the entire eastern seaboard to the wind probability table with a chance of tropical storm for winds all the way to Canada.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Does that forecast track re-verify what the was showing earlier today? If it's ON the East Coast of Florida, than landfall appears to be on track with the 11am advisory. Hm.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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willw
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
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well to be fair
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html
and
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_forecast.asp
i guess i see what it is, so yeah same. Not further north... But the fact that they expect it to be THAT sharp is kinda far fetched imo, i don't think of a ENE as it suggests.. i dunno though  we'll see
Edited by willw (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:49 PM)
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gk
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
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Call me unexperienced but after reviewing the lastest model tracks and water vapor loops over the US I see landfalling near Tampa and exiting neat St Augustine, closer to the LBAR. I know I was told earlier the the LBAR is a statistical model and is not reliable. My question is why are they still using it. The steering currents from the north are not looking like they are dipping south as predicted. I know there are other things I do not understand, but sometimes things are not as complicated as some may think. What is the possibility that I am right?
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Colleen, I'm with you on that thought and theory. The still has about 1.5-2 hours before the data run is completed. I think the next run at 06Z (2AM EDT) should include ANY possible changes.
An afterthought about Jim Cantore and landfall. Jim is very mobile. Even with a camera and Satellite truck. More mobile than most families. So please don't count on any specific point being the Landfall point.
Jim was 40 miles East of 's landfall point. I highly suspect that was an intentional mislocation, due to 's surge effects.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Everyone, just to lighten the mood, not sure if anyone has heard this. Click on the link
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_18z/ghmloop.html
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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You could very well be right, but I hope not. Tampa Bay is not off the hook on this at all.
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Michael
PWS
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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New thread on the main page.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Appears that the drier air is really getting sucked in at this point and inhibiting sustained intensity.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The track is basically the same, but the time frame has changed to much later. Landfall Sunday AM rather than Saturday PM.
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Michael
PWS
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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I think, in this moment any landfall suggestion is just a wild guess ... Thay talking about moving on NE in next 24-36 hours, and all we know to this models will change several times before lanfall ... Like moderator says .. everyone south from Tampa should be ready, but ,making prediction in this moment just make people more nervous then they should be - yet ..
Possible lanfall on Yucatan will change cat and landfall position too ..
NO ONE knows when will turn, and in what direction ...
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erauwx
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
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just to let everyone know -- there is a new topic posted. see the main page
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