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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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harmlc.ath.cx
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Re: Changes [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59895 - Thu Oct 20 2005 12:58 AM

Today will be a very telling day as to where Wilma is planned to make impact at. Any increase in speed will make the landfall more to the north, so everyone should still pay attention to Wilma, up and down the coast of florida. That's why there is a cone of uncertainty, and one shouldn't just pay attention to the line down the middle.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Changes [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #59898 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:02 AM

It is alone in it's forcast,so for now I will write it off.The GDFL is the one I watch,and the other models are closer to it.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Rdietch
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Re: Changes [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59900 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:09 AM

BTW where can we get the GDFL early like the NOGAPS and the GFS? would like to see the 0Z run of it before bed.

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vineyardsaker
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Re: Changes [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59901 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:09 AM

Are some models know to be generally more reliable then others or does the choice of model depend on the type of storm and circumstances?

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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole, Helene, Milton


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Changes [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59903 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:11 AM

Recon is near the Center. At first glance it appears the tropical storm and maybe even the Hurricane Force wind field has enlarged.

This is probably due to ERC and Wilma now having a larger Eye. Therefore a larger windfield.


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danielwAdministrator
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Models [Re: danielw]
      #59904 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:15 AM

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


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harmlc.ath.cx
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Re: Changes [Re: danielw]
      #59906 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:16 AM

Yea, on the latest satellite loops it appears as if the center has been expanding outwards.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #59907 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:17 AM

Here pick a model any model. This shows the current model spread and also the most recent NOGAPS. This is current.. for now.. http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/9856/al2420057hd.jpg

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Changes [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #59908 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:17 AM

Look like she still may have Concentric Eyewalls.
Two wind field maximums.

Max flt lvl wind 121kts. Pressure Center near 18.0N?=/ 84.6W

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 20 2005 01:23 AM)


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Rdietch
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Re: Models [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59909 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:22 AM

Thanks.


The new CMC i see on the site is out and it shows key west! so go figure where this is going to go as it has about the same chance i guess to go where the CMC says as much as the gaps.


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evergladesangler
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Re: Models [Re: Rdietch]
      #59911 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:24 AM

Quote:

Thanks.


The new CMC i see on the site is out and it shows key west! so go figure where this is going to go as it has about the same chance i guess to go where the CMC says as much as the gaps.




This is interesting because CMC has it just grazing the Yucatan (not unlike the current NHC track) and yet it still end up a Keys event.

When is the next UKMET run?


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Models [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59913 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:27 AM

Quote:

Here pick a model any model. This shows the current model spread and also the most recent NOGAPS. This is current.. for now.. http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/9856/al2420057hd.jpg




Where did you get this pic?


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Models [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59914 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:27 AM

URNT12 KNHC 200525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/05:13:00Z
B. 18 deg 00 min N
084 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2209 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 120 kt
G. 046 deg 034 nm
H. 899 mb
I. 16 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3039 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0924A Wilma OB 06
MAX FL WIND 120 KT NE QUAD 05:02:20 Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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scottsvb
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Re: Models [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59916 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:28 AM

CMC has been off too much,,in general,,so far the best models to date have been the UKMET and NOGAPS and would of said GFDL but I didnt like that 12Z run...at least we know its Cancun,,,but does it slide thru it and off the N coast or go just south of there and weaken over the peninsula of the Yucitan before it re-emerges...thats what we want to know over the next 24hrs...too hard to tell right now. I havent seen the UKMET yet but should be out in next 20-30min.

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danielwAdministrator
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Drop [Re: scottsvb]
      #59918 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:36 AM

Something strange about that Eye dropsonde. It's missing a number of levels of data.
Not reporting the wind last 150meters either.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Models [Re: scottsvb]
      #59919 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:36 AM

not sure what to think of new runs....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

at first glance more spread out?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Rdietch
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Re: Models [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59920 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:38 AM

New UKmet is out also and is about the same as the CMC and the GFS taking it over the keys.

So far you got 3 taking it to the keys and 1 near Tampa.GDFL out soon bet its going to be like the last 3.

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 20 2005 01:45 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Drop [Re: danielw]
      #59921 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:39 AM

yeah saw that.... must of been a bad dropsonde...

UZNT13 KNHC 200525
XXAA 2005/ 99339 70845 11734 99899 28004 ///// 00/// ///// 92///
///// 85498 25405 70198 18200 88999 77999
31313 09608 80513
61616 AF308 0924A Wilma OB 07
62626 EYE 0516 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 20058 99339 70845 11734 00899 28004 11850 25405 22721 19617
33705 19400 44697 17400
21212 00899 /////
31313 09608 80513
61616 AF308 0924A Wilma OB 07
62626 EYE 0516 AEV 20507 =


where's the rest?
should look like this....
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/tempdrop.htm


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Oct 20 2005 01:39 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Drop [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59922 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:49 AM

I understand the levels above 850mb not being there...pressure too low.
But the lat/long for the 'splash' isn't there either.
Oh well. They got the data.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Drop [Re: danielw]
      #59923 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:54 AM

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
BETWEEN...WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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