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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Rdietch
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Re: Changes [Re: charlottefl]
      #59968 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:53 AM

GFDL is still pretty far south

Edited by Rdietch (Thu Oct 20 2005 07:57 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Movement [Re: Random Chaos]
      #59969 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:55 AM

Latest recon shows pressure rising to 910 and concentric eyewalls at 7 and 35 nm, respectively - both CLOSED. (the "L" line specifically says "CLOSED WALLS" --- plural). I'm not sure I've seen them mention concentric eyewalls on line L before. They've mentioned them in the comments and on line M, though.
The 1115z IR clearly shows the outer eyewall becoming more impressive, and the only thing left for the inner eyewall is for the fat lady to sing. Cancun is going to get walloped if this thing doesn't turn very soon.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Steve H1
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Re: Movement [Re: Hugh]
      #59970 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:56 AM

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/ scroll to bottom.

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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Changes [Re: Rdietch]
      #59971 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:02 AM

May be wrong but 27.4 is around Stuart isn't it? Wouldn't that be a north shift for this model compared to previous runs?

Edited by emackl (Thu Oct 20 2005 08:04 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Movement [Re: Hugh]
      #59973 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:14 AM

The black (or gray if you insist ) is back. On the 1145z IR image... Wilma looks like a cake doughnut with the center not quite punched out yet. Extremely symmetrical, with the deepest convection (gray - and even a tiny spec of WHITE - on an IR IMAGE!!! - in the south semicircle). Yet the 8am advisory said the winds were down to 145. Maybe so, but they won't stay down much longer.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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evergladesangler
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Re: Movement [Re: Hugh]
      #59974 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:17 AM

Looks like she's already west of the first 5AM NHC forecast point. When will they throw in the towel on the northerly turn? Looks like she's going to plow right into the Yucatan.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Movement [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59975 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:23 AM

How much of an effect will hitting the Yucatan have on the storm? I've heard everythng from break it up (which seems unlikely), to just around a Cat 1; maybe Cat 2 when and if it hits SW FL.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Movement [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59976 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:25 AM

Tampa Bay still appears to be in the cone of stupidity. Fellow forecasters, please continue to emphasize that the cone is really the total wind area and that the danger exists until the storm has passed completely out of the cone. People still tend to simplify a hit or miss and that is not any more true for hurricanes than it is for rain, over a region. Just because it rains 3 inches at my house and only one inch at your house does not mean that you do not get wet. That is my philosophical statement of caution to those who think they are safe from the dreaded direct hit.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User


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Re: A forecast [Re: Ed G]
      #59977 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:39 AM

Quote:

make darn sure to add to the note that you are only giving your own OPINION and that everyone should tune into the NHC for accuarte forecasts.




While this is generally a valid point, I would note that there are only eight other people in my office, and they all know what I put expressly at the top of my post here...I am a complete and total amateur. The other point I want to make about relying on the NHC, while it is good advice, is that in practice people rely on TV mets and --- unfortunately --- the hype that the stations put on to promote their mets. The average viewer is unable to distinguish between a qualified met quoting the NHC, an anchorperson teasing the weather before a commercial with wildly oversimplified and sometimes inaccurate info, and an announcer in the commercial break between soaps hyping that station's coverage. Moreover, the average person with no or minimal computer literacy may have no idea how to cut out the middleman and go directly to the NHC for the best advice. Finally, I work in a government office that is getting regular e-mail updates from our agency's emergency managers with verbatim reports from NHC. I hope that reassures your concern about misleading people, because it doesn't happen with me, although I wish I could say the same for the news media coverage that most people do rely on (and another reason to salute the Mayfield news conferences as a way to get directly to the people, although questions like how concerned he is for the wildlife in the Everglades just reinforces my above point about the media).


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emackl
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Re: Movement [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #59978 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:42 AM

Ok, I'm new to the NOGAPS model page on the navy site. However, if I loaded it up correctly it looks like the 06 run puts Wilma right through central Fl! HUH! I don't care for that. I hope I loaded it wrong.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Movement [Re: emackl]
      #59979 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:44 AM

All the models seem to be shifting north again. I think until or if there is interaction with the Yukatan (sp) it's a crap shoot.

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Rdietch
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Re: Movement [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #59980 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:54 AM

not really the GFDL and the gaps did but the others still below this time yesterday.

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NewWatcher
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Re: Movement [Re: emackl]
      #59981 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:54 AM

u didnt
that is what the NOGAPS 06Z run is showing and the 06 GFDL has shifted north again also

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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JulieTampa
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Re: Movement [Re: Hugh]
      #59982 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:55 AM

If the concentric eyewalls are at 7 and 35, does that mean the 2nm one has dissolved, and there's 2 more to go? Or did the smallest one expand outward while the larger one started contracting? Were there possibly 3 eyewalls at one point? Just curious...

Julie


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Re: Movement [Re: Rdietch]
      #59983 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:55 AM

any model can be wrong or right for that matter but those two models
are 2 of the most reliable at least this year

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Movement [Re: Steve H1]
      #59986 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:13 AM

Good morning all.

I am still totally blown away by Wilma. She has managed to keep to an amazingly low pressure and amazingly good organziation and symmetry, during an ERC, and is completing it much more rapidly than I expected.

From one extreme to the other LOL...we had the 2nm-wide eye, so why not now try a 40nm-wide one?

At buoy 42056 waves are now up to 25 ft and will get higher as Wilma passes by today.

Even though she is not under the warmest water (to the east of her), she will be skirting it if she follows the forecast track, so I believe she'll still be able to spin up rapidly today and easily get back to a Cat 5 before the Yucatan starts impacting her, especially if she starts the northward turn early today.

This is because even though she is technically weakening for the moment in terms of pressure and windspeed, in a sense she is not weakening, because her structure is improving with every sat image, and convection is regularly expanding and building a symmetric strong hurricane-force windfield. This time she is building a more typical windfield where strong hurricane-force winds will extend outward for most of the main circulation. The most optimistic strengthening indicates she's going to become a very strong donut; however there are unanticipated things that can throw a wrench in reorganization. Once the eyewall clears out, given her track record with pressure, I would not even be surprised to see a very low pressure again towards evening.

But this final leg of the trek through the NW Caribbean will be her last hurrah with impressive pressures and windspeeds. If she follows the forecast models and goes into the GOM towards FL, she'll brush the loop current and may be able to maintain Cat 4 status while north of western Cuba, but that will probably be it. But, since every hurricane has its own characteristics, like a personality, consider that Wilma has been very tenacious with hanging onto low pressures (again, I'm still in amazement), so we can expect low pressures (with windspeeds continuing to lag behind the low pressure) and a very solid core, to remain even during the trip over the GOM. She may even be able to maintain higher winds than expected by once again reducing the size of the eyewall while over the GOM. Whatever it is about the unique characteristics of each hurricane, I have come to believe that if we see a specific behavior with one particular hurricane then there is more of a likelyhood of that behavior being repeated before landfall.

One final note -- since we are not not seeing the oscillating eyewall I tend to agree with the previously-posted idea that the very strong inner eyewall was rotating around the outer wind maximum (that has become the 40-mile-wide eyewall today), and the "inertia" was resulting in the looping movement. Because there was such a dramatic difference between the strength of the very small core compared with the remaining windfield, which was for the most part 80kts and lower, the movement was amplified.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Movement [Re: NewWatcher]
      #59987 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:13 AM

where are you guys finding the 06Z NOGAPS?

link please!


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Movement [Re: Ed G]
      #59988 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:16 AM

Sorry,
A little off topic, but do we have another TD behind Wilma 55W APROX??? Looks like it to me.
Just had to post


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Re: Movement [Re: Ed G]
      #59989 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:17 AM

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/login.do?username=guest

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Movement [Re: Margie]
      #59990 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:19 AM

Margie, I just checked that buoy and it's not showing wave heights anymore. What does that mean?

As far as the NOGAPS link it was posted yesterday by a member. The link is: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/logout.do?requestId=1126908274163.1786.1

You have to click Public Charts. Then pick the tropical atlantic map. from there you can play with the model runs.


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