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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Marknole
Weather Watcher


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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #60031 - Thu Oct 20 2005 10:57 AM

In the other forum (C'mon, make those landfall predictions!), a post was made that referenced the FSU Superensemble model. It seemed to indicate an (ironic) rapid weakening (interaction w/ Yucatan land mass?) and loss of tropical characteristics.

Has anyone seen or heard this prediction? It seems logical based on the beeline towards Mexico and the NHC trend towards slowing down the system overall...


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KiminCanada
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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: Marknole]
      #60032 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:00 AM

Can anyone tell me if there is a new cone out??? I only can find the 4AM??

Thanks


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blue flash
Registered User


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Re: into the crystal ball [Re: Rdietch]
      #60034 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:01 AM

Looks like a hint of a northward bias on the last frame or two.

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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: KiminCanada]
      #60036 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:05 AM

Here ya go:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html


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garrison
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Re: into the crystal ball [Re: blue flash]
      #60037 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:06 AM

She would have to go almost due N from here to miss the Yucatan (anything to the right of 350).

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Genesis
Weather Guru


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Re: into the crystal ball [Re: garrison]
      #60039 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:12 AM

Quote:

She would have to go almost due N from here to miss the Yucatan (anything to the right of 350).




Clipping the edge of the Yucatan is pretty much a given right now, which is horribly bad for them, and probably good for us due to the interaction with land. Mitch did an incredible amount of damage to both property and life; this could be on that order or perhaps even worse. It is definitely not a good time to be in the resort areas of the peninsula.....

However, that does not mean that the recurvature won't happen - it just changes the shape of the parabola somewhat. Exactly how remains to be seen. I don't expect any significant shift in the track until the 12Z models finish, which will happen sometime in the next few hours. We should see an update then in terms of the pattern.

I still think the "big day" in terms of figuring out exactly where this beast is going to head will come tomorrow, in that by then the upper level steering flow should be well-enough established to take a much better guess at the angle of approach. However, this is likely to remain a very dangerous situation in that due to the angle of approach to the coast small errors in that angle will lead to relatively large errors in the actual landfall point, as occurred with Charlie last year.

In addition, tomorrow is likely to be a very bad day for Mexico.... pray for those who can't get out....


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CarolinaGurl
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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: KiminCanada]
      #60041 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:12 AM

New Maps are out at the NHC

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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AgentB
Weather Guru


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Re: Wilma [Re: rmcinorlando]
      #60042 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:18 AM

Checking out the current coordinates, and the 11am track, even if Wilma moved almost due NW she looks to come in a bit south of the current Yucatan "graze". I think she still moves more west than north, and comes ashore on that peninsula a decent distance south of that. Per her 11am coordinates she's moved .1deg north and .3deg west(since 8am). This follows the most recent trend of an almost 3-to-1 west versus north movement.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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trinibaje
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Re: Wilma [Re: AgentB]
      #60043 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:22 AM

Someone ask the question above but it was not answered.. (or at least i didn't see the anwer) so i will ask it in my own words and pardon my ignorance if the answer is very obvious to those who have the clinical eye... but

Why is there a shift to the north or at least by many on this board for a predicition to a shift to the north when Wilma has not made her northward turn as yet? In my ignorant mind the more west she goes, the more south the forecast should bewhen the NE turn is made. What am I missing?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Jamiewx
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NWS MLB [Re: trinibaje]
      #60044 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:25 AM

NWS MLB is highlighting a possible threat to central florida in their HWO.

HURRICANE Wilma IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN...OR POSSIBLY
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE PREPAREDNESS
ACTIONS SHOULD Wilma POSE A DIRECT THREAT TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
AREA

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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FireAng85
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Re: NWS MLB [Re: Jamiewx]
      #60045 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:30 AM

East Central Florida? Not meaning to be a smart ass but did they honestly say EAST Central Florida?

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Wilma [Re: trinibaje]
      #60046 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:30 AM

They are looking at the 6z runs showing a slight more N movement once it gets into the gulf..plus thinking further west now means the turn will be further N then....
My thinking is still the same,,,,, 1 it doesnt stall over the Yucitan,,makes it alittle N of there and moves NE towards Sarasota......or it does stall and is far enough south that is gets the tail end of the trough and moves E or ENE across N coast of Cuba and brushing the Keys and Miami and towards Nassau.

Its 1 of those 2 things,,and we will know watching what happens now thru Saturday.


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zacker20
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Re: Wilma [Re: AgentB]
      #60047 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:31 AM

This new track having the storm interact with the Yucatan pennisula is VERY good news for Florida. We may be looking at a strong Cat 1/Cat 2 storm now at landfall, which will be significantly weaker than forecasted. Or it could possibly even stall out on the Yucatan and then we would just be looking at a rain event by the time the trough accerelates it towards the pennisula.

Based on the latest IR imagery, Wilma is still heading in a general West-Northwest direction and I believe she will continue on this motion for the next 6-12 hours. This will have her making landfall just south of Cozumel, Mexico. I believe she will spend more time in the Yucatan pennisula (she won't just brush it) and I would not be surprised if the NHC shifts the track farther to the left, where Wilma will cut across much of the eastern half of the pennisula. As I look at the imagery, I see no northerly component or northwestern turn in her motion. In fact she jogs a little more to the west in the last few frames. This is turning out to be a good scenario for Florida, but a horrid one for Mexico and the residents of the Yucatan. They are looking at a strong Cat 4/5 landfall in the next 12-24 hours.

If this scenario verifies, Wilma will make landfall a little further to the north on pennisula (I don't believe the turn will be that sharp, more of a North-Northeastward motion), but what kind of storm will she be at that time? It's very possible she will be a minimal Category 1 or even a Tropical Storm after interacting with the Yucatan.


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Elaine H
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Re: Wilma [Re: scottsvb]
      #60048 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:35 AM

There appears to be a rapidly developing high over Georgia and North Florida this morning. What impact will have over the weekend...does anyone have an opinion. I am looking for the link to post.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Wilma [Re: zacker20]
      #60050 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:36 AM

Fire......they are saying Eastern Florida cause its out of the Melbourne NWS for their area.

Also the NHC will adjust their tracks via what the models say,,especially always the GFDL unless that is a outliner model at that time.


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


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Re: Wilma [Re: scottsvb]
      #60051 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:38 AM

Quote:

They are looking at the 6z runs showing a slight more N movement once it gets into the gulf..plus thinking further west now means the turn will be further N then....
My thinking is still the same,,,,, 1 it doesnt stall over the Yucitan,,makes it alittle N of there and moves NE towards Sarasota......or it does stall and is far enough south that is gets the tail end of the trough and moves E or ENE across N coast of Cuba and brushing the Keys and Miami and towards Nassau.

Its 1 of those 2 things,,and we will know watching what happens now thru Saturday.




Thanks Scott... my guts (which is not a very scientific method) tells me your scenerio 2 is what we will be talking about tomorrow

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


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Re: Wilma [Re: zacker20]
      #60052 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:39 AM

I am not completely sold on the "inland over the Yucatan" solution yet, and a brush is still possible. The ridge is now weakening in the GOM, and the low coming in from the west is accelerating that process, so with its slow movement we shall see. It would be great news for Florida if it does make landfall there, since its inner core may be disrupted to a point that it won't be able to recover before making landfall on the SW coast of Florida, and could get shredded apart in the westerlies. But its still TBD at this point. Let's see what the 12Z shows with the new model data. Let's hope it isn't like yesterday's though. Cheers!!

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evergladesangler
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Re: Wilma [Re: zacker20]
      #60053 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:39 AM

Is that the new eye forming at the tail end of the loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

If so, then it might pull her more west.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Wilma [Re: Elaine H]
      #60054 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:39 AM

There is a ridge there but will move quickly east near Bermuda in 36 hrs as that shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and SE US Friday.

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royener
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Re: Wilma [Re: AgentB]
      #60056 - Thu Oct 20 2005 11:42 AM

Just been checking the storm history co ordinates and they show the storm as having moved 0.8deg North and 6.7deg west since its inception 5 days ago, this is historical data and should be correct, this movement can hardly be considered as west north west, it is just a couple of points north of west. at no point in its history has it shown any inclination to move north, I would think that it will hit into the Yucatan before making any significant shift. scource is wunderground storm history

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