doug
Weather Analyst
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This is consistent with the 6Z Which had the storm off the central West Coast in 96 (now 90) hrs...Monday! The 12Z does not define beyond 72 hrs but has the center off the Yucatan coast about 50 mile south of the 6Z run arguably only further delaying the exit...
Bastardi today argues the disruption to the storm may be to the core and suggests the interference with the core may never fully recover because of the interference from the trough..I.E. a more boraclinically oriented system...still a hurricane but no killer center...All this is very interesting and certainly not contemplated until late yesterday..
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doug
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MadDog
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Loc: DeBary, Florida
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If someone has caught the Max Mayfield news briefing, please share it with us. My live stream failed so I didn't hear what was said.
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
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Loc: The Burg < FL
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i feel ya on the stream cutting out mine did the same .. went from max to bob barker back to max then it failed ...lol
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FlaMommy
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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unfortunately mine isnt working eithe rand its not on tv....it was on cnn tho til they had a breaking news report about a murder in san fran....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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StormHound
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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East Central Florida? Not meaning to be a smart ass but did they honestly say EAST Central Florida?
That is the Melbourne office, which has responsibility for East Central Florida. They typically comment on the relavence of weather in their particular zone of responsiblity. They are not trying to imply their won't be impacts elsewhere.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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tenavilla
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Loc: Tampa Area
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Max is still speaking on the ABC affiliate here in Tampa Bay. He said that interaction with the Yucatan will help to weaken it somewhat, but said it would probably still be a Cat 3 in the Gulf. Someone asked if there was any chance it would miss FL. He said no, none of the models show it missing the peninsula. He also said we need to watch closely after it begins the turn, because some models accelerate it much more than others. He doesn't want people to get complacent since it's going to slow right now because once is makes the turn, it may move very quickly. Seems to be the main point of the news conference was to tell people to keep their guard up.
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Lee-Delray
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This would all me fascinating if my house didn't have a bulls eye on it.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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People in Tampa dont really think they are going to get hit....plain and simple....I dont even think its going to hit here unless its 6hrs away..Its been so long since Tampas been hit directly that people think it will just brush us or miss us completly. Some day yeah.... but until it does, we wont expect it.
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tenavilla
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He also just added another comment. He said that right now they think it might hit just south of Port Charlotte, and specifically stated that they are concerned about people still in FEMA trailers, etc, in that area. He also said he's having his wife put up their shutters either today or tomorrow. He reiterated that the storm is so large, the whole bottom half of FL is probably going to feel the effects.
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scottsvb
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The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.
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raw
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The High in the GOM appears to be fading and the Atlantic high appears to be building to the West.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html
What is the chance of riding around the ridge towards the troph actually picking up forward motion and heading into the Pan Handle or maybe even West God forbid. appears to be going more West than WNW to me. Just something I saw as a Possibility especially since played out the same way.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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but no one can let their guard down just yet for the simple fact of what did last year....what if it does a reversal as someone previously posted....then tampa bay would be SOL...and im in tampa bay area and im not being a fool im gettin ready....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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superfly
Weather Watcher
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Loc: New Orleans
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The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.
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Cindi
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Loc: Panama City, FL
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All I know, is that the "cone of uncertainty" is inching closer to the Panhandle...  I am ready for hurricane season to be OVER!
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tenavilla
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Loc: Tampa Area
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The met on ABC just showed SST around here, and the lowest area was 83 degrees. Sounds like plenty of heat to feed once it gets in this area. We'll just have to hope the shear from the trough gets her.
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JoeF
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Loc: Tampa
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scottsvb,
The latest shows Hurricane Force winds extending 90 miles out from the center.
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DrewC
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Loc: Auburndale, FL
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Although the close-up floater satelite images don't seem to show any real track change to the north yet, the wider ranged GOM images appear to be showing slightly more northerly outflow over the last couple hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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You are watching this with a trained eye...Can't rule out anything until the amplitude of the turn is actually measured and that won't be known until it happens..However things in the Wsrtern GOM southern pplains and Mexico are beginning to tell a story...that is what i would hope some of our experst can enlighten us on. I interpret what I see with an untrained eye, but I don't think NNE off the Yucatan coast in about 36 hours is out of the question.
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doug
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.
Latest update says they extend 90 miles out now:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.
11am says hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the center. Also, my understanding was that once it enters the GOM they expect the windfield to expand.
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