emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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I think Scott was referring to what she will be like after the Yuc takes out the punch!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Always be ready flamommy..... Raw... it wont go to the Panhandle or anywhere west of that...you can see the ridge is gone from 20N and about 88W...Look at the cirus deck having a hard time making it to 90W..shows you the ridge is broken as heights continue to drop....a drift to the NNW should happen tonight into Friday until the main trough digs in over the weekend,,, but again, will it stall or dift N into the Gulf N of the Yucitan. I do feel it will come onshore near or south of Cancun late tonight or tomorrow morning.
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CDMOrlando
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Loc: seminole cnty florida
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The wind field has been expanding.
11:00 AM forcaste adv.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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max mayfield in his appearance said that anyone from Tampa Bay to the Keys needs to be prepared and ALERT....he really couldnt express that enough
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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engicedave
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Quote:
The storm is large but very small in hurricane force winds,,outward only 25 miles from the center.
Same here, I'm in Boynton
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TinaB
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Quote:
but no one can let their guard down just yet for the simple fact of what did last year....what if it does a reversal as someone previously posted....then tampa bay would be SOL...and im in tampa bay area and im not being a fool im gettin ready....
ditto! Tampa is just too complacent at times...one of these days...POW! Maybe not this time, but sometime. (don't we say that everytime though?)
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Hootowl
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Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Not meaning to start anything - I had to go look again to see if I read it right.
clip from the 11:00am disco
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM
Note - last section HF out 90 Miles TS out 260 Miles
oops - too slow. Mods please delete this post. thanks
Edited by Hootowl (Thu Oct 20 2005 12:08 PM)
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FlaMommy
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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yea and my husband and mother in law are one of those people....they are so addament that its not going to hit us and this being my 2nd hurricane season in florida im not ready to just sit at home with them and my 2 yr old daughter....no way....all i knwo is im not taking any chances and i pray that goes elsewhere.....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Brad in Miami
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The problem with that analysis, Royener, is that you're merely looking at 2 points without seeing how it got from the first point to the second. The storm's overall movement the first 3 days (from 10/15 at 5 pm to 10/18 at 5pm) was 1.9 degrees SOUTH and 1.2 degrees west. In the 42 hours since then, however, the storm has moved 2.7 degrees NORTH and 5.5 degrees west. So although the first 3 days there was no northward movement, there has been a northward component the past 42 hours.
Because the post I'm responding to is now so far back, here is Royener's post:
"Just been checking the storm history co ordinates and they show the storm as having moved 0.8deg North and 6.7deg west since its inception 5 days ago, this is historical data and should be correct, this movement can hardly be considered as west north west, it is just a couple of points north of west. at no point in its history has it shown any inclination to move north, I would think that it will hit into the Yucatan before making any significant shift. scource is wunderground storm history."
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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When the says its 95miles away from the center,,that flight level winds, has anyone during landfalls about 50 miles away from the center feel hurricane force winds when they say they extend 75 miles? Another example for Tampa bay people is last years storms came thru...Jeanne and Francais,, Jeanne was still reported at 75mph just west of Lakeland,,but Lakelands highest wind sustained was 68mph when it was southeast of there at 85mph or again people in plant city near had winds over 60-65mph.,,,only 20 miles from the center. Even though these systems are large,,,the wind fields are so tight around the center near the surface and is generally several hundred feet up.
Edited by scottsvb (Thu Oct 20 2005 12:13 PM)
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Big Red Machine
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Both 12Z and appear to stall out over the Yucatan. Will be interesting to see if the 18Z models stay with this scenario.
NOGAPS: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart....5&tau=4320
I'm shocked to see doing this.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Thu Oct 20 2005 12:17 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Reality check.
A tropical cyclone is not steered by where it has been, or by where it has just been. It is steered by upper air currents. The only memory it retains of the places it visits, is weakening over land masses, which change the atmospheric level that steers it.
Looking at the previous path to determine the future path will get you nowhere. All of the angst and concern about this or that wobble or trying to extrapolate recent movements into a longer-term direction, have no scientific base or sound judgement behind them.
The movement of the eye of a hurricane is easy to see on a satellite image. That does not mean it is the thing you should latch onto as far as determining future movement, just because it is the one thing that is easy to see. The information about the air that moves the cyclone is on that image, somewhat, but not in an obvious way, and you have to know how to look for that kind of information, and you have to look in a very broad area, not on the floater that is zoomed into the hurricane.
In other words, it's not easy to see where she's going; it's easy to see where she's been.
Here are the latest steering currents for a storm of 's intensity:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
Note: I want to add another thought about hurricane motion. It is not on the same time scale that we operate on. We have to think in terms more slowly. We cannot think in terms of one satellite image to another (only a half hour in time), but on a longer time track. We watch the sat loops and forget that we're looking at eight hours of movement collapsed into two seconds.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Oct 20 2005 12:36 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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As I read the comments here and watched Max continually stating that anyone from Tampa south needs to be carefully monitoring this storm, I picked up on this from the 11AM disco:
DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO
THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED.
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION.
AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.
If I am reading that correctly, they may be giving the more credence than they had previously given it. It sounds to me as though what they are saying is this: that the storm may slow down and the turn may not be as early as previously thought. Which is why I think that Max Mayfield kept mentioning TAMPA southward.
Just my own humble opinion; sometimes I read too much into what one sentence may say, but I think, as do they, that this is a "significant change" in the model guidance.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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FlaMommy
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you know i couldnt agree with you more colleen...why would he keep mentioning tampa if in fact they had any reason to say so....i think its better safe than sorry....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Thank you, tenavilla, for posting Max Mayfield's comments. All day I've been reading posts on this forum and checking the satellite imagery...and I still can't make up my mind where is going. But to read that the thinks landfall will be south of Port Charlotte...well, that worries me. My family and I won't decide until tomorrow if we are evacuating, and it's going to be a hard decision to make. 
Oh, and I heard this morning that Jim Cantore is coming to Fort Myers...is this true? Thanks.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Tampa isnt out of the question cause we dont know for sure if it will stall or if it does,,where.
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Lee-Delray
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I was more interested to see that Mrs. Mayfield was putting up the shutters. I think everything is riding on 's visit to Cancun.
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TinaB
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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I don't like the fact that Tampa keeps getting mentioned, but I did tell my dear husband the other day that we might have to contend with a hurricane this weekend. To which he replied "why do they always come on the weekends?"...well it looks like if Tampa gets bothered by it might be more like early next week instead of Saturday. Either way, I stocked up and our shutters are ready to go up if need be. A lot of people think I'm crazy because I do this everytime but I'd rather be safe than sorry. Besides, all my non perishable foods that I buy get used for camping during non hurricane season...gives me an excuse to head to the woods 
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Brad in Miami
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Actually, in my post I should've merely stated that what I was pointing out was a problem with the suggestion that there has not been any WNW motion in the past. Margie is correct as to why the analysis is incorrect (i.e., that even if there were a lack of previous WNW motion, that fact would not demonstrate that there will not be a northern component in the future).
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Colleen A.
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I think that you need to go take a look at what Lake Wales experienced last year, Scott. That town was destroyed...3 times. The winds in Lakeland are mostly taken from Lakeland Linder Airport, so that is not always the full picture. I will tell you one thing...the winds in Lakeland Highlands were damned near hurricane force with Jeanne. All you had to do was walk around Lakeland to see the extensive damage done by Jeanne...100 year old oak trees snapped in half; power lines down, scoreboards ripped out of the ground, etc. My neighbor behind me had a humongous oak tree fall through their living room, nearly killing their teenage son.
I'm sorry, but I just don't agree with your statements in which you say the likelihood of Tampa Bay getting a direct hit is about as likely as a Cleveland team winning a national championship. As a met, I think you need to stop saying that because there are people here who take EVERYTHING to heart -- yes, some people do not read the disclaimer -- and what we say may affect what they do.
There is no way I am going to compare the Cleveland teams' wins or non-wins with what Max Mayfield is saying. Not to mention, even if we *only* experience TS force winds, they still are sustained to 74mph with higher gusts. That's nothing to play around with.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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