Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Thanks for that link, Ed! I had that a while ago and lost it! It does show that the and have shift ever so slightly northward.
Will be interesting to see the 11 am update...or will it? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I agree,I think she is starting the more northern movement.Well,we have got another day to prepare because of the slow down,no excuses not to be prepared for this one.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Doug...you have me a little confused, LOL...are you saying that the 's track will verify OR the ? Or somewhere in between?
I think I understand what you are saying, but I just want to be positive.
Thanks, my friend!
Colleen
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Gonna be a tough turn without significant interaction w/ land at this point, been riding 18 for a while now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/last24hrs.gif
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I suspect that very little will change on the 11:00am advisory forecast track wise. If I recall, the track was already to the left of guidence. Any north move would only move the models closer to the track. This is a sit and stayer. Better to just levae it where it is until there is a more definate sign that it needs to change.
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Jim
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Looks to me like she's making a beeline for the next forcast mark. Kudos to . They really know their stuff. I hope the local mets are watching.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Wilma seems to have slowed a bit, but that's often hard to tell from watching a few satellite frames. The sharper NW turn that had been forecasted, and I honestly was expecting to happen, still hasn't occured. Looking at the WV loops I think makes it even a bit further west before she starts on a true NW heading. The 1st trough pushing through is a bit north than where I thought it would be, and it's still a bit out to the west. Even if slows down I think she continues a movement a little more west than north. In the short term I think this means she comes in contact with the Yucatan Peninsula further south than what the is forecasting right now. For 36hrs from about 8am/18th to 8pm/19th she tracked just about twice as far west as she did north. Over the last 12hrs she's moved even further west than that.
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Check the Surf
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Im' sticking with the experts, but I can see why the pulls this north...
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doug
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Def has slowed, check out the link I sent to Colleen, def see a more south contact w/ Yuc
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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LSUFAN
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Is it safe to say that Louisiana is completely out of any possible paths for ?
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DrewC
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Loc: Auburndale, FL
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Charley was forecast for Tampa, and went to Punta Gorda instead. Wouldn't it be strangely ironic if did the inverse of ?
(Nobody get in a tissy. I am NOT wishcasting or seeing anything different from anyone else, I am just trying to keep it a little more "lite" until the 3 day cone arrives in Florida. After losing a 20'x60' pole barn, 2 sheds, 8 trees, and 11 days without power last year, I am more than ready to get serious when it is necessary.)
Oh, and on the lack of power note, at least the highs next week are forecast to be in the very low 80s, and the possible lack of A/C this year won't be as bad as last year. (The silver lining on the tornado cloud.)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Here is a web cam from my resort in Cancun (Royal Sands). You can watch approach until power goes out.
http://www.royalresorts.com/webcam.stm
Thanks, I'm now recording the Royal Sands Cam here as well. I'll up the rate it records when the storm gets closer.
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doctormegreen
Registered User
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Loc: Augusta, GA
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Thank you so much for this link. It's amazing to watch "long distance" as the storm approaches!
Suzanne 
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TinaB
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Quote:
Charley was forecast for Tampa, and went to Punta Gorda instead. Wouldn't it be strangely ironic if did the inverse of ?
I live in Tampa...and I've wondered the same thing myself. They keep saying it's only a matter of time before Tampa takes a direct hit. I was hoping that it would be AFTER I closed on the house I just sold and moved out, but it looks like I might not get that wish. Thankfully I don't live near the water, but it's the wind I worry about.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: E C Fla.
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Quote:
I agree,I think she is starting the more northern movement.Well,we have got another day to prepare because of the slow down,no excuses not to be prepared for this one.
Where is the northward movement? I am watching the GOES IR loop and she still looks 280-290 to me. In fact, if she maintained that course for another 36-48 hours, seems like the eye would barely get back out over water on the other side of the YP, if at all. I know the predicts the start of a more NW, then N, movement, but so far I don't think it has materialized.
Its been interesting reading the posts on here as to what it means if the storm stays further west and therefore south of the forecast track once (and actually "if") the weakness and then trough picks it up. Those focusing on the westward component seem to conclude that it means that the storm will tend to the left side of the forecast track once it begins a run at Florida, therefore resulting in a course more north, i.e. Tampa. Those noting that the western course also means the storm would be further south than forecast once it gets picked up, means it would track on the right side of the cone, possibly the Keys area.
Who is right?
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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12Z (only runs 72 hours out) thinks your right also. It looks to have it plow right into the Yuc with a much more easterly exit then before. It's getting interesting now. One minute I think Fl is going to get hit hard then the next minute there's hope!
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THROWIN
Registered User
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You are welcome.
I am due to vacation there in a couple months (hopefully)  . It pains me to see this live!
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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I still see the scenario that I posited the other day unfolding, just a day delayed (heh, its the weather!)
The WV imagery clearly shows the erosion of the ridge, and the low that was over Colorado is now moving somewhat SOUTH of east. This is a change from yesterday, when there were models progging a miss by the trough pickup and that first low tracking up near Ohio - that clearly is not happening.
It looks like my original scenario is good - the original impulse gets near the gulf; the trough has more of an E/W component, then the second impulse comes down and "bends" it to a more N/S axis, picking up the storm.
I'd be wary, as I said before, anywhere from the Keys to the Tampa area or perhaps a bit north of there. Until the connection is made a good prognostication of exactly where she's going won't be able to be made, which is reflected in the size of the cone currently. Given the WV imagery and pattern evolution I do think most of the models are too far south - the cone looks good, but the "black line" within it is, IMHO, biased too far southward given the evolving pattern.
It is possible that BOTH that and a Yucatan hit happens too. The storm could hit the Cancun/Cozumel area and "bounce off" - that would be diasterous for them, although it might be better for Florida, since the interaction would tend to take some of the steam out of this beast......
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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Hi not sure if any of you are interested but at 1130 am this morning Max Mayfield is taking questions live according to wwwtampabays10.com
http://tampabay10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=20214
there is also going to be live streaming video....
Also Gov Bush is scheduled to make a appearance at 1pm...
They are having a meeting at 1115am for the plans of evacuations for Hillsborough and Pinellas county.
Thought id let everyone know....take care and stay safe and keep us updated you all are doing a wonderful job....
Becky
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
Edited by FlaMommy (Thu Oct 20 2005 02:55 PM)
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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User
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Genesis, I definitely see where you are coming from. I actually thought you were pretty accurate in your prognosis yesterday so it's interesting to see it come to pass. I think that by the 5:00 discussion (if not before) the track will move north.
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