D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
|
|
if anyone is interested @ 7pm on abc news in tampa they are doin an hour long special about
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
Seems like every time the eye is about to clear out, an inner eyewall fragment flares up again. That is probably disrupting any attempts at intensification for now.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Well, the latest IR shows the eye almost 100% devoid of the inner eye structure now. I think it finally shucked the last of the old eye, and just as the system is heading into the diurnal strengthening period.
--RC
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
It's amazing how everyone is so different. I just saw Steve Lyons and he said a Yuc landfall with a 36 hour stall and a weak storm coming to FL! That's the 's thoughts, so I guess that's what he follows. They're the experts so I'll watch and see if it plays out as planned.
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
if i had to put money, i'd just keep 's strength near steady state as it nears the ne yucatan.. and slowly weakening while it's close (more if it stops while onshore a la isidore). fragments of that old inner eyewall are still sweeping around, and there is some light westerly shear becoming apparent on the western fringe of the storm. that has to be advecting some dry air into the system. i'd just keep it a 4 for the near term... large eye systems like this don't spin up quickly.. and the parameters for strengthening aren't ideal (proximity to land, upper air). were the eye to contract some that might change...
i'm gonna hold to earlier ideas about landfall in southwest florida and proximity to the northeast down the road, but it's apparent that the first shortwave will miss the storm and that the second will only have enough to initiate a slow north then northeast movement. as a third plunges southward over the upper misssippi valley around sunday the storm should respond by accelerating towards florida. the ridging off the east coast is probably a little underdone... is pumping it up some, along with some rebound via the upper low over the canadian maritimes finally pulling away east. the amplification looks a little undone, i'm thinking. add to that the the 18Z runs are showing phasing at the 500mb level but keeping the surface offshore. this is probably wrong and i'm betting the trajectory will be such that the storm sideswipes the coast really hard as it becomes . not going to withdraw from this solution unless the storm beats itself apart on mexico, or the projected coastal low of the weekend really blows up and drags the 500mb trough axis further east than projected.
gfs has been consistently showing a caribbean system for the last few days for the time period now 6-10 days out. it never does more than become a depression-level low on the model runs, even though the upper environment looks very conducive. recent runs have been keeping a pretty static pattern, with a trough over the east and a subtropical ridge along 20-25n in the central part of the atlantic. the system itself has migrated from wave energy collecting in the western caribbean to an eastern caribbean system that develops earlier, and sort of washes out over the larger islands. i'm not convinced this is quite right yet, but do expect something to try to be there in about 7 days.
the wave near 55w may be undergoing southerly shear, but it looks better than the is giving it credit for. there seems to be a good wind shift line, persistent convection, and a marginal environment aloft. models are showing slightly more ridging over the area as the outflow jet east of reorients to a more poleward, less radial flow. i'm not entirely unconvinced it won't look better tomorrow, but the chances are still on the slim side.
HF 2303z20october
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
000
URNT12 KNHC 202210Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2139Z
B. 18 DEG 51 MIN N
85 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2430 MA
D. 110
E. 220 DEG 13 NM
F. 295 DEG 127 KT
G. 207 DEG 15 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 13 C/ 3052 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTHWEST
M. C 35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A OB 05
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 1840Z
SFC WIND FROM DROPSONDE
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Well, the latest IR shows the eye almost 100% devoid of the inner eye structure now. I think it finally shucked the last of the old eye, and just as the system is heading into the diurnal strengthening period.
--RC
Look again. The 2245z image shows a ragged eye. Also moved westward again from 2215-2245 it appears. Looking at the Cancun radar, it's headed right for the resort area.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Yeah...1 frame of a good eye, followed by 1 frame of a not-so-good eye.
Got a link for the Cancun radar?
Here's the microwave pass of - the inner eye is almost gone on it: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Oct 20 2005 11:30 PM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Yeah...1 frame of a good eye, followed by 1 frame of a not-so-good eye.
Got a link for the Cancun radar?
Here's the microwave pass of - the inner eye is almost gone on it: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
The radar link is available on the front page... but here it is too:
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12
Looking at water vapor, I don't see an inner eye anymore.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
|
|
Hi all, I live in Parrish Florida just north of Sarasota and south of Tampa. I live in a
stick built home with alot of 100 plus ancient oaks on our rural property. I am getting very frustrated with this storm. I have been tracking it for days and it seems to have stalled. . Anyhow, I am getting very concerned as to whether I should sit tight with a plan or what. I have a feeling that this will be a very South Florida weak hurricane but its only a feeling based off of our extreme lucky streak in the Manatee Tampa Bay area. I am looking for the million dollar question Where is this thing going? I think I might be in the safe zone but the way things have been going Im not sure. My gut says were good here but I dont know if its a gut feeling or just a habit because of past canes always going around us. I would like a pro met to try and explain to me in simple terms their analysis. Or any amateur pros for that matter. Thank You!
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Uh....Charley, Jeanne and all hit Manatee County last year. Maybe not directly, but we did get it pretty good, especially east county towns.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Looking at that link, it looked bad on the first few frames, but towards the end of the loop, it looked like it was beginning to form another eye.
It's definitely moving slower (has been) but this could be a combination of interaction with some land and maybe an .
At this point I have no idea what to think. I agree with most of the mets that we won't really know what's going to happen until it passes the Yucatan.
Another "Hurry Up and Wait" storm. I hate those. 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
New recon, little change besides that the eye has expanded:
632
URNT12 KNHC 202331Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2305Z
B. 18 DEG 57 MIN N
85 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2447 MA
D. 90
E. 315 DEG 20 NM
F. 29 DEG 130 KT
G. 295 DEG 20 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 11 C/ 3064 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C 40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 2312Z
SFC WIND FROM DROPSONDE, GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION
|
weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
|
|
Well ('Uhh') I understand that but as a whole we didnt get much of anything atleast not here anyhow. I am in east county.... There was very minimal damage to this county. I am a native here and know what damage was done! Polk, Harddee, and for that matter Orange got alot more than here in Manatee. Anyhow if a pro would kindly respond that would very much be appreciated..
Edited by weatherwatcher2 (Fri Oct 21 2005 12:11 AM)
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
It's all going to depend on where it hits the Yucatan. If it brushes the coast, it won't be able to weaken as much. If it crosses the tip of the peninsula, then we will have a much weaker storm ... especially if it just hangs out there for 40 hours (not quite buying into that scenario just yet.)
The second scenario is this: *if* it doesn't interact with land at all and keeps going on a N/NW track, that will allow it to get further north. Here is the key question: how MUCH further north ? It's definitely going to get picked up by another trough but when and where is the key to this whole forecast.
On a personal note, I am beginning to feel the "burn-out" with this storm...already. None of the models really have a good handle on it after it passes over/through the Yucatan Channel or peninsula, so it just leaves us all living in a state of limbo.
We can do nothing other than to sit it out and wait. I found myself getting very irritable and antsy today. So I've decided that in order to keep whatever single cell of sanity I have left, I will check in about every 2-3 hours instead of every 2-3 minutes, LOL! It has helped a lot and you can actually see more of what's going on ... if you are getting to the point where you are so frustrated, may I suggest that you forget about the storm for a few hours and do something you enjoy.
Like, say, get some sleep! 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
Have ya'll seen the 18 ? It has the storm at 25 N in 120 hours! I have not seen it on a map and quite frankly I'm too tired to plot the coords but I'm thinking this is one crazy steered storm. Maybe FL will never see it. Let's hope anyway!
Here's the link for those who don't have it,
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt
Nevermind, I found the animated loop. Good Grief I need some sleep. Have a good night everyone.
Edited by emackl (Fri Oct 21 2005 12:19 AM)
|
Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
|
|
Did you notice that the NE Quadrant is over Buoy 42056 now? Look at the Signifigant Wave Height and Swell Charts. Pretty interesting.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=EST
|
evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 71
|
|
Here's a plot of 18Z :
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Has a late move north-northeast to come back into Everglades City after riding along the edge of Cuba.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Have ya'll seen the 18 ? It has the storm at 25 N in 120 hours! I have not seen it on a map and quite frankly I'm too tired to plot the coords but I'm thinking this is one crazy steered storm. Maybe FL will never see it. Let's hope anyway!
Here's the link for those who don't have it,
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt
25N 81.9W (the 120hr position on ) is just NW of Key West. 27.1N 80.6W six hours later is on shore west of Palm Beach. Incredible.
ETA: 2345z IR image has the makings of a nice distinct eye. It's not quite there yet, but it looks much more impressive than 2315z image.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Oct 21 2005 12:25 AM)
|
willw
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
|
|
Quote:
Uh....Charley, Jeanne and all hit Manatee County last year. Maybe not directly, but we did get it pretty good, especially east county towns.
It's all by where you live... i am in manatee county and never seen anything from . yes, i dont even remember jeanne. I think what he means or she means is... a storm hitting "directly" from coast of manatee county or whatever... And i can't think of any since tropical storm marco? i think...
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
