Nanci
Registered User
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Posts: 3
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Hello all, I am Nanci and I am new here. Any ideas where this storm is heading?
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Nanci
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Nanci, try this link.
The forecast/ projected tracks are updated every 6 hours or so by the Hurricane Center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205704.shtml?3day
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205704.shtml?5day
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iuhoosiers
Verified CFHC User
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The last thing we want is this thing to stall just east of the Yucatan and remain over water for a couple days, i pray that is not the case.
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Jorge Nakazawa
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Mexico City, Mexico
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Hi. This is my first post after lurking for a while. That said, is an amazing storm. I have a question. After completing the , it seems in the IR satelite images that the new eye is larger than yesterdays pinhole eye. Does this mean that the hurricane strenght windfield is also larger? After seeing the evolution of it seems to me that the will leave us with a more larger ( in the geographical sense) storm which is almost as strong as before. I think it will be a high Cat 4 at least when it comes close or impacts Yucatan.
Being in Mexico I am quite worried about the latest movement trend. Also, the slower motion is very bad news for us as it means that the hurricane conditions will last almost 24 hours acording to the last track. After being hit by Stan we can ill afford another disaster. At least the goverment has issued a red alert and asked people to evacuate low areas and go to shelters.
Jorge Nakazawa
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Very true. I would say though that there seems to be model consensus on the westerly turn into the Yucatan and the stalling. Given how short range this is and that the models had decent data I would think they have a fair degree of reliability.
If you've watched tonight at all Steve Lyons has stated this idea pretty clearly.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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If, and I repeat, If were to stall. Upwelling of the water underneath the storm would surely contribute to her demise and or decay.
While the Yucatan Channel is not the preferred location for a stall. Due to the extremely warm water there. At least she wouldn't be sitting directly over land and mountainous areas.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Below is how our current local forecast page reads. Not too often you see a forecast page looking like this.
Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible.
Monday
Tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible.
Discussion:
Current official track from very close to the one issued early this morning...therefore forecasts remain fairly unchanged past Saturday with onset of tropical storm force winds along the West Coast early Sunday. Official track takes rapidly northeast across the County Warning Area and off the East Coast near or just north of Jupiter Inlet by 1 am Monday.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Jorge, you are correct... the eye is much larger now than it was before the . The last recon plane and current buoy reports confirm that hurricane-force winds extend much farther from the center than they did when peaked in intensity. In terms of destructive potential over a large area, is a more dangerous storm now than it was before, when only a very small area would have been affected by extreme winds.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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The thing that is driving us crazy here is,We know Florida will get hit,But we don't know where and we don't know how powerfull she will be.We could get almost nothing,or we could get hit very hard.Do I go to a hotel or do I stay here?Do I do this or should I do that.If she does this she will do that.Nuts!I think everyone in south Florida feels the same way.Can you feel me???
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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00:15z position: 19.3N ; 85.8W
18z at 0z: 18.9N ; 86.1W ...for a bias of -.4 S and +.3 W.
That calculates to about 31naut miles SSW of the actual position at 00Z; which, may not seem like much now but 31naut miles has a way of meaning something more meaningful down the road.
It also calculates to a heading of ~345degrees.
Wilma appears as though "IF" she maintained the current path her W eyewall would graze the Island and she'd cross the very NE tip of the Yucatan - that is, taking a 345 heading and super-imposing it on the lat/lon grid. And also, this concurs by using the edge of paper method and laying on your monitor...
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Jorge, you are correct... the eye is much larger now than it was before the . The last recon plane and current buoy reports confirm that hurricane-force winds extend much farther from the center than they did when peaked in intensity. In terms of destructive potential over a large area, is a more dangerous storm now than it was before, when only a very small area would have been affected by extreme winds.
The big question is how much it will likely strengthen now that the is (apparently) complete. The current (0115z) IR image looks VERY impressive. The cloud tops are "only" red on the east side (orange on the west), not the dark gray and even white that were there when it was at 175.... but if it stays over water (avoids the Yucatan)... well, it's entering the same time of day that the explosive intensification occured during.... although the pressure appears to be holding steady at 923. Anyone want to shead some light on the potential short-term (12-24hrs) intensity trend?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
The thing that is driving us crazy here is,We know Florida will get hit,But we don't know where and we don't know how powerfull she will be.We could get almost nothing,or we could get hit very hard.Do I go to a hotel or do I stay here?Do I do this or should I do that.If she does this she will do that.Nuts!I think everyone in south Florida feels the same way.Can you feel me???
If you live on the Coast you want to be ready if not you watch and see.Personally i would rather be in Ft Laud right now then on the west coast as you do have more time to watch and as said unless you are on the coast then just watch and be ready if you are told to go.
Also on CH 13 just now the Met said it is backing off to the west now after the troff went by and should make it inland tomorrow.But he did say it was backing off now to the west more after the Jog North.
Edited by Rdietch (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:12 AM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I am having a hard time buying the stall over the Yucatan the way it is being shown in the models. I have my doubts that the eye makes it very far inland. there may be a stall; but it would not surprise me to see the stall occur offshore. If that is what happens, to me, it will render many of the current models moot becuase they will then be dealing with the wrong storm dynamics. I think I will go to bed now and see what the morning says. Probably the best thing to say is that there is not a whole lot off the table right now.
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Jim
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Jorge Nakazawa
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Mexico City, Mexico
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Thunderbird, do you have a link to the bouy data? I know the recon aircraft is in the site, but I don't know where to find the bouy data.
Thanks
Jorge Nakazawa
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I am having a hard time buying the stall over the Yucatan the way it is being shown in the models. I have my doubts that the eye makes it very far inland. there may be a stall; but it would not surprise me to see the stall occur offshore. If that is what happens, to me, it will render many of the current models moot becuase they will then be dealing with the wrong storm dynamics. I think I will go to bed now and see what the morning says. Probably the best thing to say is that there is not a whole lot off the table right now.
Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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nandav
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
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I know.. you just have to use your best judgement. I am in North Port, FL in south Sarasota County (just north of Charlotte County line).. I know that we are far enough inland that storm surge won't affect us.. we are not in a flood zone and that our house is 3 years old and meets post-Andrew standards..AND it weathered "Charley" with no problems (but it also didn't have the eye go over it...unlike the house we WERE living in then). Based on all of that, we made sure we have water, canned food, generator, flashlights, batteries, plywood, propane, etc.. and we have no plans to evacuate. My biggest concern is power outage.. since such a large area was without power after , even areas with very little other damage. BUT, if we were closer to the coast, it would be so hard to know what to do..... We would be making some contingency plans and we WOULD evacuate .. but pay attention to all of the information we can get. The waiting and watching can drive you crazy......
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.
How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:21 AM)
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Dude, I think you are way over reacting to this thing and since I also live in Florida and was hit twice last year I have a right to say that. First of all, if it does hit, we on this side of the coast would not even be getting a direct hit. Why in the world would you even consider going anywhere? I think it's in your best interest to just relax, sit tight, and don't obsess about something that you don't even really know what it's going to do yet. For your own good, i just wouldn't stress so much right now.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.
How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
The models are calling for LANDFALL and a stall... I said if it stalls OFFSHORE... and I never said I didn't "buy it".
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Does a landfall in the Yucatan seem more likely now than say 4 hours ago?Or does a glancing blow seem more likely now?
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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