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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 269 (Idalia) , Major: 269 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 269 (Idalia) Major: 269 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: just a little bit confused [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #60452 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:13 AM

The answer to that question will come when Fema comes into survey the damage and everyone within a 200 mile radius is asking for help to replace their home with mobile homes.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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weatherwatcher2
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: collegemom]
      #60453 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:15 AM

Ive been living through the waits warnings, cones, evacuations, hot sticky weather,another etc. etc etc etc. and Im shooting craps every other weekend but not here in Florida but at the local Casino in Cherokee N.C in the beautiful appalachian mtns...

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ftlaudbob
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #60455 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:19 AM

Well,that 11:00pm update did nothing to help us here mentaly.Just nuts,time to go to sleep,this will drive you insane.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #60456 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:19 AM

The funny thing is, the 0z NAM has it going into Cancun and stalling while the previous 18Z run had it stopping just east of Cozumel, then moving east south of Cuba. BTW, Looks like she's bending back to 300 degrees on the last loops. I'm going to bed. sheeeeesh!

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collegemom
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Re: just a little bit confused *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #60457 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:21 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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typhoon_tip
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #60458 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:21 AM

Quote:

Yeah I know Im just frustrated a little! Sorry for that.. When do you think it will be a confident forecast? Im asking within 200 miles? Ive heard literally a 650 mile difference.




That's cool..
As far as the forecast... I wish I can say that my analysis at 9:30 that demonstrated more of a series and concerted right motion lends much confidence.. It doesn't... HPC stated and I concur, "THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST", even though they agree with what I and others on here deduce a couple of hours ago...

That being said, the new guidance (which frankly, up until 2 days ago was much better ironically enough) at 00Z will be telling, because is simply a) must take into consideration that they were all full of s*&! at 18Z because of this righter motion, and b) as danielw had posted, it looks like a fair amount of addition dropsonde data got into the 00Z from the P4 mission earlier tonight...

One thing I'd like to add... Florida has never lowered their guard, that's for sure. BUT, I do sense that there may be some premature sighs of relief based on the 18Z guidance and the short term popularity to have this thing over land on the Yucatan (not that it would be any better for them - best wishes!). I agree with the HPC whole-heartedly that it is still possible for a major hurricane strike on the Penisula of FL. However, one can only wonder if anyone there has considered storm relative shear... SRS means that if Wilma is moving smartly along toward the NE or even NNE once she's clear of the Channel, her shear 'relative' to the wind field around her is less because her forward translational velocity reduces the impact of the shearing force. That "may" actually mitigate some of the weakness anticipation...

I'm only hoping HankFrank has been following this tonight because he and I have an on-going conversation about Wilmas subsequent date with the westerlies..


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The Force 2005
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: collegemom]
      #60459 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:21 AM

I have when I lived in Virginia Baeach/Norfolk area. So yes I have been through some of the worst weather a hurricane can bring.

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DrewC
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #60460 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:22 AM

Looking at the satelite images with the 11P updated tracks, and it doesn't even look like Wilma will even get west enough for the 1st forecast point. That doesn't give me much confidence in any models or forecasts for Florida in 3 or 4 days.

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Elaine H
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: The Force 2005]
      #60462 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:24 AM

I for one enjoy the speculation...that is what the forum is all about...we all understand that the best path to follow is the NHC...the interesting part of the forum is the speculation from the different parties that follow the weather as a hobbie and the experts that join this forum ... and they have interesting points of view. It is quite simple...if you think that everyone is off base then go to www.nhc.noaa.gov and don't worry about the comments on this site.

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Rdietch
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: collegemom]
      #60463 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:24 AM

I really think someone is trying to get us to cry Daddy.I mean i did not mind charlie as much as at least it was coming and coming and then went but now this is like someone holding a gun and 3 people standing in front of him and he says im going to kill one of you but i think ill just hold the gun here for a few days and make you suffer.

Well this is not as bad but you get the idea


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: DrewC]
      #60465 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:25 AM

My thoughts on this is that Wilma is feeling the land of the Yucatan and possibly is starting to push her away. This has happened in prior hurricanes, as they felt the land, it changes course. Why? I don't know. But I think it has to do with friction.

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Rdietch
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: The Force 2005]
      #60467 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:27 AM

well last few pics looks to be going back west around 305 anyone else see this makes a big difference.

Edited by Rdietch (Fri Oct 21 2005 03:29 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: The Force 2005]
      #60468 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:29 AM

I went back and animated the 5 Day track at the http://nhc.noaa.gov site.

Wilma is Very Near the 3 Day forecast Point from MONDAY.

I haven't compared the lat/ longs to the actual location. But the graphics are very close.

Recon is inbound and should give a new Center Fix around 90 minutes from now.


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tpratch
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60469 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:30 AM

Quote:


Who is in charge of making this image? This is different than HPC at 11pm so I'm curious..




It's mine from the Cancun radar... So I guess I'm in charge of making it?

Seriously though, I took a spread of 3 images from within the times listed and drew some dots. If I make one tomorrow, I promise to make the center points red (I reduced it to a 16 color gif and forgot to assign that red as one of the colors). The start and end times listed match the start and ends times on the beginning and end point of that graphic.

I've always maintained that a jog is a jog unless it's a trend of 90 minutes or more. This met that criteria.


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: danielw]
      #60470 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:31 AM

Truly amazing, it is 11:30PM and so many observers on this site.

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danielwAdministrator
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10PM Discussion [Re: The Force 2005]
      #60472 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:37 AM

To borrow the more than often used phrase from TWC.

The Bottom Line.

Last sentence, from the next to last paragraph from the 10 PM CDT Discussion Tonight.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF Wilma MISSES YUCATAN
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS
IT COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: 10PM Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #60474 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:40 AM

Thanks,now I will sleep better.LOL

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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gavsie
Verified CFHC User


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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: DrewC]
      #60475 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:40 AM

All I can say about this storm right now, a couple of days ago I belive I went to bed with a Cat 1or2 and at 2 in the morning it was a 5. Wow. If that was not the first clue that this storm would give forecasters some issues... I have no idea what would. Here in Tampa though, people don't seem worried. I think it is simply because we have done this before. Once there is more certianty in the path I will start my plan in to action. I just wish I knew where she was going.

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danielwAdministrator
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From Scottsvb [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #60476 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:41 AM

From: scottsvb

I looked at that storm right now, Just south of LA or middle gulf outside the main outlfow and saw the tops blown off and then tried to hold,,,also you see the trough angle doing down thru LA and will be east of her by morning...looking into the NW gulf you see slight ridging coming in but will be short lived... hard to tell right now...but I wouldnt be surprised to see a drift N into the morning,, then again,,could drift W or even NE until Saturday when it will nudge NE and pick up speed on Sunday. Hard to tell,,every hour is important from this afternoon on...also more G missions into the gulf and also developing orientation of the trough,......anything from Cuba on a run to the east to a more NE path just south of Tampa could happen.....wont know forsure until it starts moving Saturday in a general direction,,,,but what happens before then and where it starts from is the key......lower latitude= Cuba,,,,brushing the keys and Miami......a drift more into the GULF N of the Yucitan will mean more NE up along the trough digging in behind and a Sarasota path..

btw you can post this also,, so I wont have to repeat it...LOL. Ill be back later


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The Force 2005
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: tpratch]
      #60477 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:42 AM

Checking the last infra red shows a very distinct eye. Believe this is a sign of her really venting, and venting alot. The eye is increasing as well. Expanding is on the order also.

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