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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Tazmanian93
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Re: From Scottsvb [Re: danielw]
      #60478 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:45 AM

Evening all, went out around 5pm, went to dinner with the wife and kids and came back and Tampa now looks to be significantly back in the cone of errrrrrr. Without me reading through a bunch of posts could someone give me a quick rundown on what or how this has happened, CHEERS

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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The Force 2005
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Re: From Scottsvb [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #60480 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:47 AM

Yeah I can I update you:

Currently, it is a "CRAPSHOOT". All bets off if Wilma misses the Yucatan.


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weatherwatcher2
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Re: From Scottsvb [Re: The Force 2005]
      #60481 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:49 AM

I think his meteorology has always been pretty up to snuff! Thank You for posting Scotts words....

You are most welcome~danielw

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 03:52 AM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: From Scottsvb [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #60482 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:51 AM

Quote:

Evening all, went out around 5pm, went to dinner with the wife and kids and came back and Tampa now looks to be significantly back in the cone of errrrrrr. Without me reading through a bunch of posts could someone give me a quick rundown on what or how this has happened, CHEERS




..Basically, a substantial amount of time along Wilma's recent course has been right of the 12Z and 18Z guidance, making it highly skeptical that she will a) spend enough time over the Yucatan to weaken substantially, and b) requires that her spatial change be conserved down the line, giving rise to the necessity for a course correction - which is to say a quicker (potential) enter into the westerlies and therefore a slightly different approach to the Florida Penisula...

...However, HPC goes out of their way to say this is a minimal confidence result... unfortunately!


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Thunderbird12
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Re: From Scottsvb [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #60483 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:52 AM

The 00Z GFS is coming in about the same as the previous two runs, with Wilma making landfall south of Cozumel around 18Z tomorrow and then sitting over the Yucatan through at least 48 hours (I have only seen the output out to 48 hours so far).

The shortwave nearing the Ohio Valley that is currently steering Wilma to the NW has about reached Wilma's longitude, so its influence should be ebbing within the next few hours. After that, Wilma will probably slow down even more, and that is when the models decide to drift it to the west. The current motion is somewhat more to the N than the models had been suggesting, but not by a whole lot. The westward movement was shown in the models to commence later tonight and we are about to see if that is going to materialize.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Oct 21 2005 03:56 AM)


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Multi-Decadal Signal
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: The Force 2005]
      #60484 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:54 AM

"Truly amazing, it is 11:30PM and so many observers on this site."

If you look to the left, you will see this.
Site Donations and thanks

We use a lot of bandwidth here and there are other expenses ...

Good night all. Probably little change will be found when I arise.


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JMII
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Re: just a little bit confused [Re: danielw]
      #60485 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:55 AM

Quote:

I went back and animated the 5 Day track at the http://nhc.noaa.gov site.

Wilma is Very Near the 3 Day forecast Point from MONDAY.




The NHC 3 day forecast ARE very accurate, history has proven this. Even with all these wobbles, loops and jogs - the overall motion and direction have been right on track. The only thing that has really changed is the time-line. We went from a Saturday PM to a Monday AM landfall in SW FL. Big picture wise I don't see much change in the overall forecast, at crunch time you'll be spilting hairs. Thus if the storm hits as high as Sarasota or as low as Key Largo the NHC will have it narrowed down. However the real problem is the forward speed once Wilma makes her turn (assuming that happens) - this accelerate will compress the timeline making it near impossible to focus the "cone of error" down to individual cities until maybe only 12 hours before landfall. Normally we would have a more precise location at around the 48 hour mark. Very frustrating when a storm slows, nearly stalls then takes off in another direction at nearly twice the speed - the margin for error goes thru the roof during such a dramatic event.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


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danielwAdministrator
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Satellites [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60486 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:57 AM

Force. I just checked the last Dvorak figures.
Wilma's Eye Region temperature has warmed up to it's highest yet.
However the Mean Cloud temps have dropped about 3.5Cfrom today's peak.

Appears to be taking some shear from the West. As the Dvorak images are showing a lop-sided 'White" level. Badly eroded on the Western Semicircle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg


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Tazmanian93
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Re: From Scottsvb [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60487 - Fri Oct 21 2005 03:57 AM

Any thoughts or agreement on this, should the cold front moving down Sat & Sun entrnch itself, wouldn;t Wilma choose another route, a Hurricane would not follow a cold front correct or no?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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JG
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A question for mets and all hobbyists [Re: JMII]
      #60489 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:00 AM

Do the models take ALL historical climatology and paths into their outputs? Obviously we don't have pressure readings for the storm below in 1873, but the position of this current storm, Wilma, and the 1873 #5 hurricane sure do seem VERY similar and very ominous.

If historical climatology is part of the modeling process, especially the globals, please PM me and let me know how. I am very concerned though that Wilma is SIMILAR to the 1873 storm and the path might end up in the same manner.

Thanks again for all the great data that everyone posts here.

Link to path of 1873 #5 storm:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1873/5/track.gif


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The Force 2005
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Re: Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #60490 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:02 AM

Daniel,

I agree, looks a little ragged on th ewest. But the eye is in tact and looking very symetric don't you think?


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typhoon_tip
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Re: From Scottsvb [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #60493 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:07 AM

Quote:

Any thoughts or agreement on this, should the cold front moving down Sat & Sun entrnch itself, wouldn;t Wilma choose another route, a Hurricane would not follow a cold front correct or no?




...It depends on what you mean by "follow a coldfront"... If you mean, a cold front passes by the storm and then the storm starts chasing it then no...

...But I suspect you mean 'will the hurricane travel along parellel to the boundary?' That answer is maybe...

...Softly spoken, the U/A mechanics that cause a front to exist at the surface requires an excited windfield aloft. Any hurricane in the vicinity of a front tends to get pulled along polarward ahead of the boundary, while also transitioning into a different thermal dynamically driven system (barotropic vs baroclinic, but we won't get into that here) for various reasons. Until eventually it begins taking on extratropical characteristics.. Then it begins to look like a Norwegian model low (loosely), and can often turn into ferocious gale monsters in the N Atlantic. If the storm is too weak to begin with, the shearing ahead of the front may just cause it to morph right into the frontal boundary its self and loose identity altogether.. Wilma is waaaay to strong for that, however.. It is more likely that she will either a) stay ahead of the baroclinic zone as a separate entity as she going to England at ludicrous speed....or, she'll get sucked up into an important trough slated to dig into the Ohio Valley... If that happens, could be a whale of a Nor'easter/hybrid event up along the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts... That appeared to be a real concern 2 days ago, but since....the models have been finding every perturbation imaginable to make that not happen at least excuse to do so.. Which is probably a good thing.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 21 2005 04:11 AM)


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komi
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Re: Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #60495 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:26 AM

Daniel, you are right ...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropi...b-191N-858W.jpg


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Thunderbird12
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buoy 42056 [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60496 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:27 AM

Buoy 42056 is still reporting 1-minute sustained winds to hurricane force, and also reported wave heights of 35.4 feet last hour, which is the highest so far.

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danielwAdministrator
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Satellites [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60497 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:38 AM

I don't know much about Dvorak Images.

Wilma's Eye temperature is still rising.
Up 2.9degrees between 0315 and 0345Z.
At it's highest temp today.

I can't compare it to her earlier states. As her Eye was too small then.
I did compare the Eye Region temp to Katrina's profile though.
When Katrina's EYE REGION temp. started increasing...her pressure dropped out.

I checked Rita's EYE temps against her pressure and there appears to be Some correlation.

Recon is due for a Center Fix in about 20 minutes.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: buoy 42056 [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60498 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:41 AM

Quote:

Buoy 42056 is still reporting 1-minute sustained winds to hurricane force, and also reported wave heights of 35.4 feet last hour, which is the highest so far.



I remember seeing a recent report on the wave heights reported by the bouys.
The max wave height isn't measured but can be approximated by multiplying the listed wave height by 1.9. I'll try to find that link.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #60499 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:42 AM

This might help for those of you who are interesting:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html


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FlaMommy
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Re: Satellites [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60500 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:51 AM

hey there could you have possibly meant those that are "interested"...lol....anyways...we arent under any evacuations yet but i made reservations at the only hotel left....ahhhh....not what i would prefer but good enough not to go to a shelter....good luck to anyone looking for one in the tampa/brandon area....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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danielwAdministrator
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Vortex [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60501 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:51 AM

Max Flight level wind so far is 116kts at 0447Z.

Now up to 128 kts at flight level-0456Z

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 05:04 AM)


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nate77
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Re: Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #60503 - Fri Oct 21 2005 04:57 AM

Max Mayfield said tonight that likely will hit as CAT 1 or CAT 2..

Good news.

That could change though, depending on how long is stays over the peninsula.

That would depend on where you and your home were in relation to the Cat 1 or 2 landfall...~danielw

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 05:07 AM)


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