Lance Wilson
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Long time lurker here, but just a simple question. I seem to remember during last years storm season and some of the previous storms this year, that an appearance of elongation in one direction or another was a precursor of a change in general movement in that direction. I was just watchhing CNN and looking at the IR images in the background and see what I think is N-S elongation of the overall image. I could be seeing things, but if this is the case, could this be the beginning of the long awaited change in movement to the NW and North?
Thanks in advance
Exactly. It has started NW now, possibly NNW. Some METs from Ruskin are calling for it to miss the Yucatan all together, but that remains to be seen.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Afternoon all.
Wilma's eye is starting to clear out nicely. She seems to be emerging from the very well. I think as soon as the eye finishes clearing out, the pressure is going to start dropping like a rock again, and she'll become quite strong up until she runs out of real estate (probably in the pre-dawn hours). If at that time she stalls or moves more northward, a definite possibility (look at the high over NW Mex), she'll probably again maintain steady state Cat 5 into the GOM.
In another hour or so, wave heights at buoy 42056 will reach 30 feet, and should peak in about 8-10 hours.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
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Between the last recon fix about 8 hours ago and this one, the heading has been 315 degrees (straight NW).
Pressure up some, but FL winds support 130 knots, which would be up from the last advisory. Not unexpected, since the wind field has likely reconsolidated and is more in line with what you would expect from a 918mb storm. There still seem to be some fragments of the inner eyewall floating around inside the larger center. Those will have to be cleared out if is going to significantly reintensify.
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TampaDon
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Thanks for the reply. It will be interesting to see if the motion change plays out, and what it does from there. Is would seem not at all unlikely for it to stay over water if the motion change pans out.This is pretty much the scenarion Denis Phillips layed out yesterday of the day before. His issue was the closer to the Yucatan, the more north on the FL peninsula. Not good for me here in Tampa, but Tampa, while in the cone of uncertainty, is probably on the outside edge of probabliity for a direct hit.
Edited by TampaDon (Thu Oct 20 2005 03:50 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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I am in agreement with Tip , and I really can't see this lurking 40 hours down here. The southern solutions toaround 10000 Islands are taking this off the Yucatan at about 60-70 degrees and that just doesn't look like what the evidence shows. The trough to the west has shown a steeper amplitude than that, as Tip said suggesting almost NNE mechanism ahead to steer this off...that is too steep too in my opiinion so I'm compromising at around 45-50 degrees and up the coast a bit.
A little quicker than Monday too.
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doug
Edited by doug (Thu Oct 20 2005 03:54 PM)
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Bloodstar
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The storm is moving too northerly to make landfall on the yucatan. I'm calling for it to not make official land fall. I also thing the storm is starting to pick up a little forward speed. I'm expecting a 6 - 7mph movement, probably still called NW by the , but with a turn to NNW by 11pm. is just bound and determined to frustrate us.
Part of my reasoning is watching the water vapor imagry show a significant push west to east. which will help forestall any movement (much) further west. In addition, there is a channel of lower pressure that runs to the NNW of , which I think will be followed to just east of the Yucatan.
I will not make any sort of guess about what happens after that.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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evergladesangler
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The 18Z has it continuing north and then left turning into the Yucatan where it stalls out for a few days and then reenters the Gulf north of Meridia. Weird.
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lawgator
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Despite the death and destruction, you really have to admire the symmetry and beauty of it. Reminds me of a conch shell:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
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Myles
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Nice observation Bloodstar. I hadn't noticed it myself until showed 's track so far with a line super-imposed over it. In the last couple of frames it shows a B-Line almost straight north. Its like a 80-85 degree shift in the track. I was so surprised I had to play it again on the TiVO.
However, current Sat loop shows a definite NW motion. If it continues in a straight line it will barely miss the Yucatan, not good for us in S. FL . I also agree that this hurricane will not linger there for days like some models show. The westerlies are coming. You can see them in WV over N Mexico and Texas eroding the ridge, its just a matter of how quickly and where they take .
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FlaMommy
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Hi I was wondering something...on the spaghetti models on the main page under the tracker it has three of the models going thru central florida*tampa bay*...anyones take on that??
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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This is a painfully difficult forecast for . Models have not been able to settle on any one solution for very long. This may end up approaching the Yucutan at a rather oblique angle, making the forecast of possible landfall and how long it would linger over the Yucutan very difficult. That part of the forecast makes a huge difference down the line in the intensity forecast. The forecast timing is also in question because there appears to be a fine line as far as when gets picked up based on the model output... if it stays a little further east than expected, it will get picked up sooner, but if it moves a little more west it could stall out. Throw in the impact of an eyewall-replacement cycle that is struggling to complete and the forecast is really a mess.
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Thunderbird12
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The last run (12Z) also suggested a temporary move to the north, then a move back to the left over the Yucutan. Obviously, there is something that is causing the models to behave that way, but the features at work are probably too subtle to clearly diagnose.
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native
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FlaMommy: I'm sorry but I could not navigate to where you were referring and find the models. However, here are the models from WU and I find that they are the quickest with their updates...none shown are near Tampa...oddly the is not shown. However, the was up earlier so I suspect it'll again update this evening.
www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
If you could provide a direct link to what you were referring to, I'd greatly apreciate it. I'd like to see what that one has.
FYI ALL: on Sun-Sentinel.com Max Mayfield is expected to have another "news conference" at 4:45pm. They'll be streaming it live.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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im so sorry about that here it is....
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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KC
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The Collier County Commission has ordered that mandatory evacuations will begin at noon Friday for all Collier County residents living west and south of U.S. 41. Officials hope to have evacuation complete in that part of the county by Saturday at noon.
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blue flash
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I'm not sure whether it is actually elongated to the north. The western side may be losing convection due to the interaction with the relatively dry land mass of the Yucatan. This gives the appearance of north/south elongation.
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Colleen A.
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They also showed on the noon-time weather on ABC that out of 45 models, 8 had either near, above or below TB. I'm not sure which ones they were, though, because they didn't mention them.
Did anyone here know that Governer Bush has declared a State of Emergency? Not at all unexpected; just surprised no one has said anything about it.
I cannot see making a direct landfall in Cancun...I believe she is just going to graze it...and mover further north before the turn to the NE begins. I've been calling for a track further to the north now for 3 days, might as well stick with it, huh?
Of course, now that all that's been said, Mr. Mayfield may come out and say: we expect it to hit somewhere between the FL Straits and Cuba". 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rdietch
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Ther NEW 5pm track takes it even slower then before.It has it still sunday way off of the coast.Right now it is still only 5MPH not faster as was suggested and also still NW and not NNW as was also.
All in All it has done about what they have said it would do just the long range has been going different directions.
Also winds are back up to 150 mph.
Edited by Rdietch (Thu Oct 20 2005 04:40 PM)
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Fletch
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5:00 is out. 18.9 85.7 NW 5 mph WINDS NOW 150mph
Track looks about the same
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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native
Weather Guru
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AH HAH! Thanks! Well, here's a link that DanielW has posted under General....I think you'll find it a great read and possibly might help to ease a little of your anxiety.
DanielW also says thanks to Bobbutts for the link in his post:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74792&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
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