F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 269 (Idalia) , Major: 269 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 269 (Idalia) Major: 269 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | >> (show all)
mempho
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 10
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #60260 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:41 PM

***The following is just conjecture and one person's opinion. I am not a meteorologist and this "forecast" is just a personal interpretation. It goes without saying that you shouldn't make any decisions based on this analysis unless that decision is only to be aware of the possibilities..***



Has anyone considered that if Wilma does not make a Yucatan landfall, that will actually cause it to retain its desire to move poleward? In other words, a Yucatan landfall would weaken Wilma and, thus, possibly make Wilma more susceptible to being pushed in a "hard right" fashion towards the Florida peninsula. Conversely, a narrow miss through the Yucatan Channel would cause her to retain her strength and make her a much more dominant system and give her the ability to create her own environment. Of course, she's not completely dominant at this time, but she could be if she can cough up the rest of the inner eyewall from the ERC and soak up some of that high heat content water that she's over. I have presented 3 options for what I think will happen after we know what will happen with the Yucatan.

Landfall on the Yucatan

If Wilma fully landfalls on the Yucatan, this would obviously be good news for the United States (and terrible for some of my favorite places on this planet). Wilma will weaken and probably take the hard right when the front swipes her up. She will probably hit south or central Florida as a Cat 1 or 2; with the outliers being a minimal Cat 3 or TS. My guess...Cat 2 in Sarasota.

A "Grazing" of the Yucatan

When I speak of grazing, I am talking about an eyewall landfall that causes the storm to ride up the coast in such a way that it only knocks it down a category or two. This would leave it as a strong 2 -3 storm. This probably will result in high Cat 2 or minimal Cat 3 striking in and around the Tampa area. Why?


Wilma misses the Yucatan completely

That said, I have great difficulty in deciding if she will make a landfall on the Yucatan and, if so, how prolonged it will be. I do believe, however, that if she misses the Yucatan completely, she will probably land much further north than originally indicated. In fact, I would put her north of Tampa and put her as far away as Mobile Bay or the Florida panhandle. Once again, this would all hinge on a non-landfall in the Yucatan. Wilma, of course, would probably weaken (but still be a major) before making such an impact.

I know what you're going to say about this. You're immediate reaction will be that this is not plausible because of the trough. So, what happens to the trough? Well, its slows down or stalls out. The trough waits on Wilma. I don't think it will be the other way around if Wilma goes Cat 5 again without hitting the Yucatan. Wilma has all of the ingredients necessary to become an annular Cat V. Will she have real estate? I don't know.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: blue flash]
      #60261 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:42 PM

Wow, I was looking at the infared loop and was noticing that it may miss the forcast mark to the east. However, when I refreshed it they had changed the forcast points on me..LOL! Now she is going into the Yuc as a 5 and turning towards south Fl as a level 2. They must still think it's going to continue into the Yuk at the 5:00!

5:00 disco is up! They think she will turn west again.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/202031.shtml

Edited by emackl (Thu Oct 20 2005 08:45 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: emackl]
      #60262 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:48 PM

I think the NHC is really looking at the GFS and GFDL...and slowing the system down....the GFDL has it as a cat 1 heading towards the FL straights...possibly missing the state entirely...as to heading north towards the panhandle.....no support anywhere for that....I think we will be waiting awhile on this one...but if it does come to FL, it will be a much weaker Wilma than we are seeing now...just my observations...by the way, low temperatures here in Pensacola on Monday/Tuesday in the upper 40's....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Fletch]
      #60263 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:49 PM

The forecast track hasn't changed a whole lot, but if you read the discussion, it is apparent that the confidence in the forecast track has dropped quite a bit.

The shortwave that is currently pulling Wilma to the north is forecast to weaken and move east. As that occurs, steering currents will temporarily weaken and then it is a matter of where Wilma decides to drift until the next shortwave tries to drag it north. NHC indicates that the slower models are indicating that it won't be until the third shortwave before Wilma gets picked up. It will be a close call.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 89
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: native]
      #60264 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:50 PM

Also they take the cane down to a cat 2 storm way before it gets to Florida and with the hostile enviorment probily even more before it hits land.

Now this is if the track and speed they have pans out.

Worth a note in the Disco they said the speed of the track they show right now might still be even too fast and Monday might be a landfall for Florida.

Man people who have to evac tonight would really not be happy that far in advance.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Rdietch]
      #60265 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:54 PM

Does anybody else think that the last two discussions have been, well...... not very well written. When is Stewart due for another writing?

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LSUFAN
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 3
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Rdietch]
      #60266 - Thu Oct 20 2005 08:55 PM

So, under no circumstances, is it possible for Wilma to hit Louisiana? Would that be correct?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: native]
      #60267 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:01 PM

hey there...for some reason the link isnt working so i cant access it...i remember seeing it...just dont remember where....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
native
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: LSUFAN]
      #60268 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:01 PM

Um, I would say you're probably safe.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 429
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: LSUFAN]
      #60269 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:02 PM

I know the mets will hate my comment but: I'm a beleiver it won't hit you until it dissapates; thought the odds of a NO are almost nil.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 340
Loc: Maryland
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: LSUFAN]
      #60270 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:03 PM

I wouldn't say under "No" circumstances, but under the conditions that we see now, there is a less than 1% chance for things to permit Wilma to hit something other than FL/Cuba/Yucatan peninsula

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: emackl]
      #60272 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:04 PM

You are right in saying it would have missed the forcast point. Wilma hits the new one perfectly. However, they still have a track that curves it into the Yucatan. This thing looks likes its headed in a straight line northwestward. Don't get me wrong, that could change, but right now Wilma is not going in a curve what-so-ever. At this rate it looks like the eye will never make landfall, just a graze of the coast.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
native
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: FlaMommy]
      #60273 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:04 PM

Sorry...go to the top of the page here and click on Active Topics...the last one (Active Topic) is titled "Tropical Models" it's under the Forum Heading of Hurricane Ask/Tell (or something like that) just open that & see if the link will work from there.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Fletch]
      #60274 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:10 PM

Well, not to be disrespectful, but I think there is much uncertainty in what she's gonna due. My personal opinion, and I'm out on a limb, is that if she breaks 19.5N by 5am she'll get caught in enuf of the flow that she will not have to wait for a third S/W....a second perhaps, but not a third. This will mean a brush, or even a short-lived landfall near the NE Yucatan, but I don't see her hanging under a tiny bit of ridge after the S/W moves beyond her longitude Now that's not to say she couldn't meander, but she won't kick west. The 18Z NAM even now keeps her offshore, drifts her eastward just south of western Cuba, then has her go over west-central Cuba and strengthens as she heads to the NNE, probably skirting Miami. That probably won't happen , but the idea is that the model that was most emphatic at crushing her into the Yucatan has backed away from that idea. Again my take cause I'm getting tired and its time to get off the pot. Hope I'm wrong, cause if it doesn't weaken over Yucatan she'll be a formidable 'cane heading towards SW Florida. Cheers!!

Edited by Steve H1 (Thu Oct 20 2005 09:13 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: native]
      #60275 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:10 PM

thank you i got it that time...unfortunately that is only one persons perspective on each model....where as he may be accurate or not...max mayfield was on at 445pm he stated that there are no bad models...just because one works one year doesnt mean that it will next....not trying to get anything started or a debate or anything but not everything is perfect.

thank you again native

Becky

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: FlaMommy]
      #60277 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:19 PM

Becky, if it makes you feel better, I believe the LBAR is one that has it going into the Tampa area. This won't be LBAR's year. That one is way off all the time. However, if other models start pointing their fingers at Tampa, then there may be merit. LBAR won't get credit for it though..LOL!

Jackie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Myles]
      #60278 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:20 PM

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Have a look at the latest recon plot. shows a pretty clear jog to the north and then the last point is actually looks to be wnw.. 3 min north and 7 min west

A. 20/1843Z
B. 18 DEG 44 MIN N
85 DEG 35 MIN W

A. 20/2116Z
B. 18 DEG 47 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: FlaMommy]
      #60279 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:22 PM

FlaMommy, you been watchikng Denis Phillips for his 5:00 forecast? It seems he is leaning more towards a closer to Tampa landfall.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: emackl]
      #60280 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:23 PM

hey Jackie thank you for that...but its not a matter of me feeling better its just the simple fact that everyone pin points which ones they like and prefer to use ....i mean im gonna go with anything Max Mayfield says for the simple fact that he is the NHC...thats just my opinion but when there is a line going through where i live I'm on guard:)

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: StPeteBill]
      #60281 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:25 PM

actually hes been saying that for a couple days now and yes i do watch him and he said the further to the west of the channel it goes the higher chance it will be a tampa event.....so you know there are local mets who are talking then there are NHC mets that are telling you what they think its going ot do.....stuck in the middle;).....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 89 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 57056

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center