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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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native
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: FlaMommy]
      #60282 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:25 PM

You're welcome...you are absolutely correct, that is one person's point of view. I know that you are new to the state...this is your second hurricane season here if I remember correctly. WOW...what an introduction. As eluded to by my screen name, you can guess where I was born and raised. I'm sure some others here will chime in with some helpful advise also. But, mine to you is this: You are doing a great job at keeping abreast of the situation...however, she's a couple days away still and (I'm going on the assumption that you have a plan in place) try not to watch the coverage adnauseum or you will go crazy. They (NHC) are not going to get any more specific than they are right now until Saturday (just my guess). So, if I assumed wrong and you do not have plans made, get one together now, get prepared, pray and lastly (the hardest part) wait to see what the EMO's of your county and NHC say in another day or two.

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nicolew
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: FlaMommy]
      #60283 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:26 PM

People mention the local mets they trust the most - wondering who the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale people look to most for local weather?

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Rdietch
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: StPeteBill]
      #60284 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:27 PM

Quote:

FlaMommy, you been watchikng Denis Phillips for his 5:00 forecast? It seems he is leaning more towards a closer to Tampa landfall.





I must have been watching a different Dennis? He said titan and him both look for south Florida. hit.

Edited by Rdietch (Thu Oct 20 2005 09:28 PM)


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StPeteBill
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: FlaMommy]
      #60285 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:28 PM

Well Pasco and Hillsboro Counties have already issued State of Emergencies for the county. Pinellas County is prepared to issue ours in the morning and issue evacuation notices, this all according to the EOC Director on the news just a moment ago. I am starting to get nervous for the first time. I rode out Opal in 95 and never want to experience anything like that again.

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native
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: nicolew]
      #60286 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:29 PM

Brian Norcross Baby!!! He's the most tell it like it is shoot straight no hipe kinda guy....this ofcourse is just my opinion. I'd love to say my cousin Dean Tendrich @ Channel 5 in Palm Beach Co...but I live in Broward so, I don't get his station....although we do call his wife or MIL and get our info....hasn't missed one yet!

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engicedave
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: nicolew]
      #60287 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:30 PM

Quote:

People mention the local mets they trust the most - wondering who the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale people look to most for local weather?




Channel 10, ABC, Don Noe & his team
Knows his stuff, doesn't hype or overspeculate. Straight-forward info.

In Palm Beach, Channel 5, Steve Tendrich and his crew
Same reason


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Genesis
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I dunno...... [Re: native]
      #60288 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:31 PM

I'm looking at the WV loop right now, along with several of the models.

The first low that was moving south of east this AM is now moving north of east - and heading for Ohio. The "tail" on it is not very impressive - at all. By tomorrow morning it will be off the table as a steering influence. A clear miss for Wilma on that one.

Behind it is a trough from the canadian/US border southward towards the NV/AZ border. That trough looks pretty healthy. That's the one that was progg'd to pick up Wilma after the "chase" scenario fell apart. Now there are models saying that one will miss too.

BUT - look at the forecast for the panhandle area. The'yre forecasting Monday overnight lows in the mid 40s - a TWENTY DEGREE downward departure. That's big-big-big, and ain't happening unless we get a front through here, and with that will come the tail that has already picked Wilma up.

Three troughs by Sunday? Naw. There IS a VERY strong low south of Alaska right now that looks damn impressive, but its a long way out, and for it to get here in three days? How?

Also, ridging that was over the BOC is backing off bigtime. The center axis of that appears to be off the west coast now, and I see no reason to believe it will build back in eastward.

What I'd expect instead is what I have expected - amplification as a result of the jet and the second trough. I still think the connection may be made - probably Saturday - and the pickup will begin at that point.

With that said it appears that Cancun/Cozumel are in BIG trouble. It appears that Coz is going to get positively pasted - is there anything on the island high enough not to be under the surge? A 30' surge/wave impact is not at all unreasonable to expect from this beast. For them, it doesn't get much worse than this.

As for Florida, my general view hasn't changed - its slowed down though. If Wilma actually goes inland on the Yucatan - and it might - it will come back out much weaker. Florida is likely to get a Cat 1 or possible a 2 out of this if the Yucatan gets to rip the storm up for 24 hours or so, and I give that a 50% chance.

On the other hand, it is possible that it will stall just offshore. That would be bad for everyone - there wouldn't be much weakening from land interaction, but the windfield would expand significantly from frictional effects, and it would then end up coming at Florida as a reasonable shadow of what it is now - which would lend credence to a Cat 2 or 3 hit.

As for "where", I still think we're looking north of the projected path, and I've noticed something a bit interesting - TWC has narrowed the cone, but the NHC has not, keeping everything from roughly Cedar Key to the Keys in the "cone". I think that's very smart, because the exact shape of that trough is likely the important issue in terms of exactly what path this thing takes as it approaches the FL coast - if it does. I would personally NOT drop my guard anywhere in that area - not until it has been picked up and a path has been established.

In any event I remain concerned about phasing with the trough as it rides up and a significant storm event in the NE US. That threat is not off the table from what I see, even though several of the models seem to be insisting on it going straight out to sea after crossing the Florida coast.


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stellar1
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Myles]
      #60290 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:33 PM Attachment (207 downloads)

Hi all,

I've been watching the Cancun radar for the past several hours and the track looks to be a steady 345-350 degrees; however, it is moving slowly. The entire eyewall is now visible in the most recent frame (20:57). (Unfortunately, the images of the radar that I capped don't seem to want to load from the site where I stored them.)

It is nearly abreast of Felipe Carrillo Puerto, which is about at the latitude that the UKMet, the BAMM, and the GFDL had it making a Yucatan landfall. It looks to be about two degrees east of the longitude of Cozumel, and it would need to turn to at least a 320 heading to make landfall at Cozumel or Cancun.

The last several frames (20:57 and 21:27) -- the images are 30 mminutes apartt -- suggest it is nearly stationary.

Edited by stellar1 (Thu Oct 20 2005 09:50 PM)


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nicolew
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: native]
      #60291 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:33 PM

My parents live in Palm Beach County and ONLY watch Dean Tendrich! I watch Norcross now, though I used to watch Roland Steadham and even Bill Kamal. The guys on Channel 6 all look the same to me now!


Quote:

Brian Norcross Baby!!! He's the most tell it like it is shoot straight no hipe kinda guy....this ofcourse is just my opinion. I'd love to say my cousin Dean Tendrich @ Channel 5 in Palm Beach Co...but I live in Broward so, I don't get his station....although we do call his wife or MIL and get our info....hasn't missed one yet!




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spectrum24
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Rdietch]
      #60292 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:33 PM

Denis Philips is an idiot. He's the Glen Burns of Tampa (those of you that live in Atlanta know what I mean) He lives to jump up and down and yell "the sky is falling the sky is falling!" A storm could be going to iraq and he'd say that he thinks landfall will be in tampa.

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emackl
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: engicedave]
      #60293 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:34 PM

You guys are too funny. I can honestly say I couldn't name ONE local met for our news. I never watch it. I have strictly used the NHC for 3 years and this board for a year.

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trinibaje
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: nicolew]
      #60295 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:37 PM

Quote:

People mention the local mets they trust the most - wondering who the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale people look to most for local weather?




i miss bill kamal....

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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StPeteBill
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: spectrum24]
      #60296 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:37 PM

I am sorry but I dont find that to be true with Denis Phillips. Yes he gets dramatic but he is the one always saying it's not coming to Tampa.

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evergladesangler
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: StPeteBill]
      #60297 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:43 PM

18Z GFS is now spitting out the initial data. It shows a similar pattern to NOGAPS to this point. Movement north and then a westerly turn into the Yucatan. Consensus starting to develop?



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Ronn
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: StPeteBill]
      #60298 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:46 PM

Quote:

I am sorry but I dont find that to be true with Denis Phillips. Yes he gets dramatic but he is the one always saying it's not coming to Tampa.




I agree. I think the TV mets in Tampa are playing this well right now. They are not overhyping the storm, nor are they dismissing the threat. Phillips is an animated guy, but I have never seen him unnecessarily forecast doom and gloom.


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Margie
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Ronn]
      #60300 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:53 PM

Bingo -- wave heights at 42056 reached 30 ft.

Wilma is looking awfully, awfully good. I think she's at Cat 5 now. Looks like another all-nighter coming up.

OK what's the deal with the recon?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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meto
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Ronn]
      #60301 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:54 PM

just saw denis phillips looking at last few satt. photos going north, it may not go into yucutan.

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komi
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: meto]
      #60302 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:55 PM

Lets c whare this going to go in next 12 hours

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg


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Multi-Decadal Signal
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: nicolew]
      #60303 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:57 PM

Brian Norcross on Ch.4 - CBS affiliate.

They say that he did a hell of a job covering Andrew.
I didn't get down here 'till '94 but have seen some of the clips.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: komi]
      #60304 - Thu Oct 20 2005 09:58 PM

Quote:

Lets c whare this going to go in next 12 hours

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg




Note please use the mirror we are providing for the Cancun radar to keep this radar site up longer. http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12


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