Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Looking at that model data, I have to be reading something wrong.
If I'm reading it right, it's predicting a motion of 315/1.8kt @ 54hrs, 196/2.5kt @ 60hrs, 42/3.5kt @ 66hrs, 340/2.9kt @ 72hrs, and 85/4.1kt @ 78hrs.
That is a fun little circular loop, isn't it? I'm assuming that's a good portion of the stall pattern they are expecting over the Yucatan Peninsula (and the coords are more to the left edge of the peninsula, correct?)
These models are really having a hard time getting the pattern of motion down. I would hazard a guess and say that this storm is going to be one of the hardest ones this year to nail down a pattern for.
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Londovir
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I am at the point where I think i am just going to ignore any model past the next 36 hours. No consitency from run to run. Flopping around like a flish out of water. Can't even be sure it hits the Yucatan right now. This thing may find a way to avoid it. Will have to see what the morning holds. Maybe some more consistency will start overnight. As of right now, I think a gut feel can be as accurate as a model. Just too complex a situation.
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Jim
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Deleted
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Thu Oct 20 2005 08:31 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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18z runs map
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
look at the (grey dark line) just off of tip of cuba and southwest of key west in 120 hrs... maybe yesterday's "fluke" of the was on to something..... meaning is going to be around a little longer... and get stuck somewhat down near cancun for a few days! 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Oct 20 2005 08:34 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
I think a gut feel can be as accurate as a model.
Gut feeling? Mine is telling me not to relax one bit.
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Michael
PWS
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Tropical Weather Discussion on
Palm Beach County Central/South Florida
800 pm EDT Thursday October 20, 2005
Latest sat loop at 8pm....
Use this for supplemental Information along with the official forecast.
I am going by the guidance of the ETA or model since the upper air dataseems to be initialized well enough I think better then the . The upper
air analysis. Right now is beginning to get influenced by the upper windstream flow and dry air into this system. The first appearance of raggedness
is just showing up. The ETA is vigorous with the upper trough that will engulf the next 24-36 hrs therefore she will weaken and also it appears the
southern cluster model of tracks across the extreme south florida and the Keys is the more likely candidate as far as future track of . is actually
moving NNW at about 5 to 7 mph and has just reached a blocking effect or wall to the west of it. The water vapor loop clearly shows very fast upper wind flow over the Gulf of Mexico and the does not in my review of the model handle well enough on the speeds and intensity of the upper flow. The trough feature aloft at upper levels will pick up and push it East to Northeast while captured into a strong upper trough.
The later timing of more than likely will mean an even weaker system by the time it makes a right beeline shot just underneath our area across the Keys and the Straits or extreme south Florida. will be piack up speed Saturday and I would not hold my guard down and delay too much on the forecast track
and speed since she can pick up speed again once she is caught into the fast westerlies and the weakening commencing between 19 to 20 north latitude which it is just beginning to occur, she will open up and expose her eye to the dry air aloft and upper winds entering into in it's own circulation.! We should see tropical moisture opening up and streaming this way Friday and continue into the weekend as mid-upper trough now just beginning to engulf this will make her appear as an egg shape feature already happening now and also bring moisture streaming up here normally that you would see on any intense enough east side of a trough. Storngest winds tropical force is Sunday and Monday am then racing away..we must not be let down
as could pick up speed again Saturday night...the slow dowm may be temporary Friday thru Saturday PM picking up Sunday early am in speed and a more ENE than NE motion.!
More to follow...later.
Look just to the Northwest quad of the circulation and you can see raggedness starting more egg shape evoulution gradually talking place on ...beginning signs of upper windstream flowing into and also DRY AIR MARKED AS COPPER BROWN ENGULFING INTO ! The transition is beginning to take place she i sgoing away from perfect environmental conditions and entering in a more hostile enviroment..wind speeds aloft of 40-50kts is very significant ahead of where she is moving next day into this weekend...slow weakening next 24hrs followed by a rapid weakening possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday..
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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This thing is driving everyone down here crazy!I am going to listen to music for awhile and try and forget about hurricanes for at least 30 mins.The stress level is through the roof now.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Is it just me, or is the Cancun Radar and the Sat's showing pure NW motion from Noon EST - 6PM, followed by a more NNW bend (around 305-310 degrees)?
Edited by Doombot! (Thu Oct 20 2005 08:50 PM)
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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To illustrate the craziness over ...the 8pm Discussion seems to say the opposite..
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD
OUTFLOW N OF THE CENTER IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE SE
GULF...AND FLORIDA...FROM 20N-29N E OF 90W. THE WESTERN GULF W
OF 90W HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS E OF 90W
DUE TO . EXPECT CONVECTION TO COVER THE E GULF E OF 92W
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO .
Its madness....madness! 
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Jara
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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cancun radar link.... mirror site
http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay. I know that everyone is awaiting 's next move. Whenever that may come.
Please make sure that you are ready to leave if you are asked to evacuate.
My thinking is that while is puttering around the Caribbean at this time. Some little something from somewhere...might ( strong emphasis on might ) pick her up and move her along before any of the models could indicate the move.
So make sure you are ready to go.
Who said Weather is an exact Science?
It changes from moment to moment. Just like everything else.
The point is, to be prepared for the changes, and be Ready To Move!
Look at a large Lower 48 Satellite loop once in a while and try and get the feel of what and the models are showing you.
Otherwise, You might get caught looking at out of your front window!
I am not a MET here. Just an observer
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
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The eye appears to be more open and better organized. Here's an infrared satellite image from Floater.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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My sentiments exactly. No one can let down their guard on this one. A slight deviation from the official forecast or a sudden, unexpected wobble could mean a great deal. Be ready.
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Michael
PWS
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc:
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I tend to agree with Danielw
While I think the general consensus tracking is most likely accurate, which means a direct run over my home, I only question the timeline, which seems conservative.
In watching all of this, I think it may only brush the Yucatan and get picked up, even if ever so slightly, and begin making its way eastward.
I think the size, intensity, speed to intensity, radical pressure changes and a few other factors have kind of put the timing question in the models in a bit of chaos. There is no previous input of a storm like this, so it is difficult for the models to calculate...never seen it before...never done it before.
By no means do I consider myself an expert, just a lot of observation
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I put found these links to give you an idea of what the 5PM Track Plots from Today, Yesterday and Tuesday look like.
5PM EDT Today
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT24/22.AL2405W5.GIF
5PM EDT Yesterday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT24/18.AL2405W5.GIF
5PM EDT Tuesday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT24/13.AL2405W5.GIF
Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 20 2005 09:37 PM)
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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Jim Cantore on Key Largo ..
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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you have tuesday and wednesdays up. not todays. just lettin you know.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Buoy 42056 at 19.87N, 85.06W reported a 1-minute wind speed of 66 knots (hurricane force) last hour. Max wave heights were 32.8 feet.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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sorry for a short post, but as a reminder, the chatroom is open, feel free to drop by and give your thoughts and speculation and ask questions. On your left click on chat and come on in and stay a little while...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
Quote:
Have ya'll seen the 18 ? It has the storm at 25 N in 120 hours! I have not seen it on a map and quite frankly I'm too tired to plot the coords but I'm thinking this is one crazy steered storm. Maybe FL will never see it. Let's hope anyway!
Here's the link for those who don't have it,
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt
25N 81.9W (the 120hr position on ) is just NW of Key West. 27.1N 80.6W six hours later is on shore west of Palm Beach. Incredible.
ETA: 2345z IR image has the makings of a nice distinct eye. It's not quite there yet, but it looks much more impressive than 2315z image.
For what it's worth:
00:15z position: 19.3N ; 85.8W
18Z at 0z: 18.9N; 86.1W ...or, bias of -.4 S and +.3 W.
That calculates to about 31naut miles SSW of the actual position at 00Z, which, may not seem like much but 31naut miles has a way of meaning something down the road.
Having said that, using the edge of a piece of paper and the degrees, appeas as though "IF" she maintained the current path her W eyewall would graze the Island and she'd cross the very NE tip of the Yucatan.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Oct 20 2005 09:37 PM)
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