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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Nanci
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Re: Chatroom [Re: Bloodstar]
      #60383 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:36 AM

Hello all, I am Nanci and I am new here. Any ideas where this storm is heading?

--------------------
Nanci


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danielwAdministrator
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Storm Heading [Re: Nanci]
      #60386 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:44 AM

Nanci, try this link.
The forecast/ projected tracks are updated every 6 hours or so by the Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205704.shtml?3day
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205704.shtml?5day


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iuhoosiers
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #60387 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:46 AM

The last thing we want is this thing to stall just east of the Yucatan and remain over water for a couple days, i pray that is not the case.

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Jorge Nakazawa
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Re: power [Re: HanKFranK]
      #60388 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:47 AM

Hi. This is my first post after lurking for a while. That said, Wilma is an amazing storm. I have a question. After completing the ERC, it seems in the IR satelite images that the new eye is larger than yesterdays pinhole eye. Does this mean that the hurricane strenght windfield is also larger? After seeing the evolution of Wilma it seems to me that the ERC will leave us with a more larger ( in the geographical sense) storm which is almost as strong as before. I think it will be a high Cat 4 at least when it comes close or impacts Yucatan.

Being in Mexico I am quite worried about the latest movement trend. Also, the slower motion is very bad news for us as it means that the hurricane conditions will last almost 24 hours acording to the last NHC track. After being hit by Stan we can ill afford another disaster. At least the goverment has issued a red alert and asked people to evacuate low areas and go to shelters.

Jorge Nakazawa


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evergladesangler
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: iuhoosiers]
      #60389 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:49 AM

Very true. I would say though that there seems to be model consensus on the westerly turn into the Yucatan and the stalling. Given how short range this is and that the models had decent data I would think they have a fair degree of reliability.

If you've watched TWC tonight at all Steve Lyons has stated this idea pretty clearly.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: iuhoosiers]
      #60390 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:51 AM

If, and I repeat, If Wilma were to stall. Upwelling of the water underneath the storm would surely contribute to her demise and or decay.

While the Yucatan Channel is not the preferred location for a stall. Due to the extremely warm water there. At least she wouldn't be sitting directly over land and mountainous areas.


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WXMAN RICHIE
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Local Forecast [Re: Nanci]
      #60391 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:53 AM

Below is how our current local forecast page reads. Not too often you see a forecast page looking like this.

Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible.
Monday
Tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible.

Discussion:
Current official track from NHC very close to the one issued early this morning...therefore forecasts remain fairly unchanged past Saturday with onset of tropical storm force winds along the West Coast early Sunday. Official track takes Wilma rapidly northeast across the County Warning Area and off the East Coast near or just north of Jupiter Inlet by 1 am Monday.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Thunderbird12
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Re: power [Re: Jorge Nakazawa]
      #60392 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:55 AM

Jorge, you are correct... the eye is much larger now than it was before the ERC. The last recon plane and current buoy reports confirm that hurricane-force winds extend much farther from the center than they did when Wilma peaked in intensity. In terms of destructive potential over a large area, Wilma is a more dangerous storm now than it was before, when only a very small area would have been affected by extreme winds.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: danielw]
      #60394 - Fri Oct 21 2005 01:59 AM

The thing that is driving us crazy here is,We know Florida will get hit,But we don't know where and we don't know how powerfull she will be.We could get almost nothing,or we could get hit very hard.Do I go to a hotel or do I stay here?Do I do this or should I do that.If she does this she will do that.Nuts!I think everyone in south Florida feels the same way.Can you feel me???

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60395 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:04 AM

00:15z position: 19.3N ; 85.8W
18z GFDL at 0z: 18.9N ; 86.1W ...for a bias of -.4 S and +.3 W.

That calculates to about 31naut miles SSW of the actual position at 00Z; which, may not seem like much now but 31naut miles has a way of meaning something more meaningful down the road.

It also calculates to a heading of ~345degrees.
Wilma appears as though "IF" she maintained the current path her W eyewall would graze the Island and she'd cross the very NE tip of the Yucatan - that is, taking a 345 heading and super-imposing it on the lat/lon grid. And also, this concurs by using the edge of paper method and laying on your monitor...


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Hugh
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Re: power [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60396 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:09 AM

Quote:

Jorge, you are correct... the eye is much larger now than it was before the ERC. The last recon plane and current buoy reports confirm that hurricane-force winds extend much farther from the center than they did when Wilma peaked in intensity. In terms of destructive potential over a large area, Wilma is a more dangerous storm now than it was before, when only a very small area would have been affected by extreme winds.




The big question is how much it will likely strengthen now that the ERC is (apparently) complete. The current (0115z) IR image looks VERY impressive. The cloud tops are "only" red on the east side (orange on the west), not the dark gray and even white that were there when it was at 175.... but if it stays over water (avoids the Yucatan)... well, it's entering the same time of day that the explosive intensification occured during.... although the pressure appears to be holding steady at 923. Anyone want to shead some light on the potential short-term (12-24hrs) intensity trend?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rdietch
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #60398 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:11 AM

Quote:

The thing that is driving us crazy here is,We know Florida will get hit,But we don't know where and we don't know how powerfull she will be.We could get almost nothing,or we could get hit very hard.Do I go to a hotel or do I stay here?Do I do this or should I do that.If she does this she will do that.Nuts!I think everyone in south Florida feels the same way.Can you feel me???





If you live on the Coast you want to be ready if not you watch and see.Personally i would rather be in Ft Laud right now then on the west coast as you do have more time to watch and as said unless you are on the coast then just watch and be ready if you are told to go.


Also on CH 13 just now the Met said it is backing off to the west now after the troff went by and should make it inland tomorrow.But he did say it was backing off now to the west more after the Jog North.

Edited by Rdietch (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:12 AM)


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Rasvar
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60399 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:11 AM

I am having a hard time buying the stall over the Yucatan the way it is being shown in the models. I have my doubts that the eye makes it very far inland. there may be a stall; but it would not surprise me to see the stall occur offshore. If that is what happens, to me, it will render many of the current models moot becuase they will then be dealing with the wrong storm dynamics. I think I will go to bed now and see what the morning says. Probably the best thing to say is that there is not a whole lot off the table right now.

--------------------
Jim


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Jorge Nakazawa
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Re: power [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60400 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:12 AM

Thunderbird, do you have a link to the bouy data? I know the recon aircraft is in the NHC site, but I don't know where to find the bouy data.

Thanks

Jorge Nakazawa


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Hugh
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Rasvar]
      #60401 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:14 AM

Quote:

I am having a hard time buying the stall over the Yucatan the way it is being shown in the models. I have my doubts that the eye makes it very far inland. there may be a stall; but it would not surprise me to see the stall occur offshore. If that is what happens, to me, it will render many of the current models moot becuase they will then be dealing with the wrong storm dynamics. I think I will go to bed now and see what the morning says. Probably the best thing to say is that there is not a whole lot off the table right now.




Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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nandav
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #60402 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:14 AM

I know.. you just have to use your best judgement. I am in North Port, FL in south Sarasota County (just north of Charlotte County line).. I know that we are far enough inland that storm surge won't affect us.. we are not in a flood zone and that our house is 3 years old and meets post-Andrew standards..AND it weathered "Charley" with no problems (but it also didn't have the eye go over it...unlike the house we WERE living in then). Based on all of that, we made sure we have water, canned food, generator, flashlights, batteries, plywood, propane, etc.. and we have no plans to evacuate. My biggest concern is power outage.. since such a large area was without power after Charley, even areas with very little other damage. BUT, if we were closer to the coast, it would be so hard to know what to do..... We would be making some contingency plans and we WOULD evacuate .. but pay attention to all of the information we can get. The waiting and watching can drive you crazy......

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Rdietch
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Hugh]
      #60403 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:16 AM

Quote:

Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.





How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:21 AM)


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richisurfs
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #60404 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:17 AM

Dude, I think you are way over reacting to this thing and since I also live in Florida and was hit twice last year I have a right to say that. First of all, if it does hit, we on this side of the coast would not even be getting a direct hit. Why in the world would you even consider going anywhere? I think it's in your best interest to just relax, sit tight, and don't obsess about something that you don't even really know what it's going to do yet. For your own good, i just wouldn't stress so much right now.

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Hugh
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Rdietch]
      #60405 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:18 AM

Quote:


Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.



How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?




The models are calling for LANDFALL and a stall... I said if it stalls OFFSHORE... and I never said I didn't "buy it".

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: nandav]
      #60406 - Fri Oct 21 2005 02:19 AM

Does a landfall in the Yucatan seem more likely now than say 4 hours ago?Or does a glancing blow seem more likely now?

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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