mempho
Verified CFHC User
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***The following is just conjecture and one person's opinion. I am not a meteorologist and this "forecast" is just a personal interpretation. It goes without saying that you shouldn't make any decisions based on this analysis unless that decision is only to be aware of the possibilities..***
Has anyone considered that if does not make a Yucatan landfall, that will actually cause it to retain its desire to move poleward? In other words, a Yucatan landfall would weaken and, thus, possibly make more susceptible to being pushed in a "hard right" fashion towards the Florida peninsula. Conversely, a narrow miss through the Yucatan Channel would cause her to retain her strength and make her a much more dominant system and give her the ability to create her own environment. Of course, she's not completely dominant at this time, but she could be if she can cough up the rest of the inner eyewall from the and soak up some of that high heat content water that she's over. I have presented 3 options for what I think will happen after we know what will happen with the Yucatan.
Landfall on the Yucatan
If fully landfalls on the Yucatan, this would obviously be good news for the United States (and terrible for some of my favorite places on this planet). will weaken and probably take the hard right when the front swipes her up. She will probably hit south or central Florida as a Cat 1 or 2; with the outliers being a minimal Cat 3 or TS. My guess...Cat 2 in Sarasota.
A "Grazing" of the Yucatan
When I speak of grazing, I am talking about an eyewall landfall that causes the storm to ride up the coast in such a way that it only knocks it down a category or two. This would leave it as a strong 2 -3 storm. This probably will result in high Cat 2 or minimal Cat 3 striking in and around the Tampa area. Why?
Wilma misses the Yucatan completely
That said, I have great difficulty in deciding if she will make a landfall on the Yucatan and, if so, how prolonged it will be. I do believe, however, that if she misses the Yucatan completely, she will probably land much further north than originally indicated. In fact, I would put her north of Tampa and put her as far away as Mobile Bay or the Florida panhandle. Once again, this would all hinge on a non-landfall in the Yucatan. , of course, would probably weaken (but still be a major) before making such an impact.
I know what you're going to say about this. You're immediate reaction will be that this is not plausible because of the trough. So, what happens to the trough? Well, its slows down or stalls out. The trough waits on . I don't think it will be the other way around if goes Cat 5 again without hitting the Yucatan. has all of the ingredients necessary to become an annular Cat V. Will she have real estate? I don't know.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Wow, I was looking at the infared loop and was noticing that it may miss the forcast mark to the east. However, when I refreshed it they had changed the forcast points on me..LOL! Now she is going into the Yuc as a 5 and turning towards south Fl as a level 2. They must still think it's going to continue into the Yuk at the 5:00!
5:00 disco is up! They think she will turn west again.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/202031.shtml
Edited by emackl (Thu Oct 20 2005 04:45 PM)
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I think the is really looking at the and ...and slowing the system down....the has it as a cat 1 heading towards the FL straights...possibly missing the state entirely...as to heading north towards the panhandle.....no support anywhere for that....I think we will be waiting awhile on this one...but if it does come to FL, it will be a much weaker than we are seeing now...just my observations...by the way, low temperatures here in Pensacola on Monday/Tuesday in the upper 40's....
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Thunderbird12
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The forecast track hasn't changed a whole lot, but if you read the discussion, it is apparent that the confidence in the forecast track has dropped quite a bit.
The shortwave that is currently pulling to the north is forecast to weaken and move east. As that occurs, steering currents will temporarily weaken and then it is a matter of where decides to drift until the next shortwave tries to drag it north. indicates that the slower models are indicating that it won't be until the third shortwave before gets picked up. It will be a close call.
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Rdietch
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Also they take the cane down to a cat 2 storm way before it gets to Florida and with the hostile enviorment probily even more before it hits land.
Now this is if the track and speed they have pans out.
Worth a note in the Disco they said the speed of the track they show right now might still be even too fast and Monday might be a landfall for Florida.
Man people who have to evac tonight would really not be happy that far in advance.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Does anybody else think that the last two discussions have been, well...... not very well written. When is Stewart due for another writing?
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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LSUFAN
Registered User
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So, under no circumstances, is it possible for to hit Louisiana? Would that be correct?
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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hey there...for some reason the link isnt working so i cant access it...i remember seeing it...just dont remember where....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Um, I would say you're probably safe.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I know the mets will hate my comment but: I'm a beleiver it won't hit you until it dissapates; thought the odds of a NO are almost nil.
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tpratch
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I wouldn't say under "No" circumstances, but under the conditions that we see now, there is a less than 1% chance for things to permit to hit something other than FL/Cuba/Yucatan peninsula
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Myles
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You are right in saying it would have missed the forcast point. hits the new one perfectly. However, they still have a track that curves it into the Yucatan. This thing looks likes its headed in a straight line northwestward. Don't get me wrong, that could change, but right now is not going in a curve what-so-ever. At this rate it looks like the eye will never make landfall, just a graze of the coast.
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Sorry...go to the top of the page here and click on Active Topics...the last one (Active Topic) is titled "Tropical Models" it's under the Forum Heading of Hurricane Ask/Tell (or something like that) just open that & see if the link will work from there.
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Steve H1
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Well, not to be disrespectful, but I think there is much uncertainty in what she's gonna due. My personal opinion, and I'm out on a limb, is that if she breaks 19.5N by 5am she'll get caught in enuf of the flow that she will not have to wait for a third S/W....a second perhaps, but not a third. This will mean a brush, or even a short-lived landfall near the NE Yucatan, but I don't see her hanging under a tiny bit of ridge after the S/W moves beyond her longitude Now that's not to say she couldn't meander, but she won't kick west. The 18Z even now keeps her offshore, drifts her eastward just south of western Cuba, then has her go over west-central Cuba and strengthens as she heads to the NNE, probably skirting Miami. That probably won't happen , but the idea is that the model that was most emphatic at crushing her into the Yucatan has backed away from that idea. Again my take cause I'm getting tired and its time to get off the pot. Hope I'm wrong, cause if it doesn't weaken over Yucatan she'll be a formidable 'cane heading towards SW Florida. Cheers!!
Edited by Steve H1 (Thu Oct 20 2005 05:13 PM)
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FlaMommy
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thank you i got it that time...unfortunately that is only one persons perspective on each model....where as he may be accurate or not...max mayfield was on at 445pm he stated that there are no bad models...just because one works one year doesnt mean that it will next....not trying to get anything started or a debate or anything but not everything is perfect.
thank you again native
Becky
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Becky, if it makes you feel better, I believe the LBAR is one that has it going into the Tampa area. This won't be LBAR's year. That one is way off all the time. However, if other models start pointing their fingers at Tampa, then there may be merit. LBAR won't get credit for it though..LOL!
Jackie
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bobbutts
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Have a look at the latest recon plot. shows a pretty clear jog to the north and then the last point is actually looks to be wnw.. 3 min north and 7 min west
A. 20/1843Z
B. 18 DEG 44 MIN N
85 DEG 35 MIN W
A. 20/2116Z
B. 18 DEG 47 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pinellas County
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FlaMommy, you been watchikng Denis Phillips for his 5:00 forecast? It seems he is leaning more towards a closer to Tampa landfall.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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hey Jackie thank you for that...but its not a matter of me feeling better its just the simple fact that everyone pin points which ones they like and prefer to use ....i mean im gonna go with anything Max Mayfield says for the simple fact that he is the ...thats just my opinion but when there is a line going through where i live I'm on guard:)
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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actually hes been saying that for a couple days now and yes i do watch him and he said the further to the west of the channel it goes the higher chance it will be a tampa event.....so you know there are local mets who are talking then there are mets that are telling you what they think its going ot do.....stuck in the middle;).....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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