typhoon_tip
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Boy, that eye looks quite impressive at the moment...best it's looked since it was a sinister pin hole... It does look (in spite of all conjecture) like the NE Coast of Yucatan is under the gun; Cuz. appears to be in line for the western eyewall for a sustained blasting... Not good... She appears to be moving 320 during the last hour, which is a subtle shift W after nearly 3 hours of what I would argue was probably more like 340... Too soon to tell if this is a "wobble" or not, but the trough that had induced this N tug earlier in the day is passing 's longitude so....it will bee intersting to see how she responds... She may keep drifting up into the col area between major players, exhausting her current NW by slight NNW motion for a number of hours. This is actually a classic scenario that offers erratic track behavior so it is lucky for those track forecasting enthusiasts insanity that she is not taking advantage of that excuse to do so  But, the night is young. The worst thing that could happen here is that she'd approach the Coast and then stall, as opposed to the incorrect track guidance of bringing her bodily island. BTW: The 0z is already off and the error only grows with each additional rad/sat frame...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 21 2005 01:11 AM)
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bobbutts
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I attempted to extrap the motion from the Cancun radar site
if the motion from the images from 0:55 to 4:06 continues landfall would be on the N. 1/2 of Cozumel and then well south of Cancun
Attached..
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Doombot!
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This NNW motion has been ongoing for several hours, and I would no longer consider it a jog or a wobble. At this rate the eyewall will pass over the Yuc but all or most of the eye will miss; I agree with the , I think most of these models are missing something.
Does anyone disagree with my observations / thoughts?
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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This NNW motion has been ongoing for several hours, and I would no longer consider it a jog or a wobble. At this rate the eyewall will pass over the Yuc but all or most of the eye will miss; I agree with the , I think most of these models are missing something.
Does anyone disagree with my observations / thoughts?
No - and actually, there's been a lot of conjecture regarding this that began in this thread some 3 hours ago... It may behoove you to go back over them as many individuals have rendered some decent insights/foresights on the matter.
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danielw
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I'm waiting on the latest Fix.
Off hand I'm getting 29min North and 17minutes West since 2305Z Vortex.
That would be roughly 0.5 N and 0.3 W.
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 01:18 AM)
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danielw
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URNT12 KNHC 210516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/05:01:20Z
B. 19 deg 26 min N
086 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2477 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 128 kt
G. 28 deg 019 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 10 C/ 3051 m
J. 20 C/ 3054 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1324A OB 09
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 04:55:50 Z
Line J is the temp inside the Eye, and line K is the dewpoint inside the Eye.
A wide spread like that is part of the reason you are able to see through the Eye so clearly on satellite pics.
This gives an approximate Relative humidity of 49% inside the Eye.
http://www.eustis.army.mil/weather/weather_products/wxconversions.htm
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 01:26 AM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
I'm waiting on the latest Fix.
Off hand I'm getting 29min North and 17minutes West since 2305Z Vortex.
That would be roughly 0.5 N and 0.3 W.
I know I said I'm crashin' but you got check this out:
Conditions at 42056 as of
0450 GMT on 10/21/2005:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 60.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 73.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 35.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): S ( 186 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.21 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
This bouy is 60nm ENE of 's center.
The pressure is 989.2mb
Interesting. That's almost a 1mb drop per 1nm!~danielw
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 01:39 AM)
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Doombot!
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Quote:
No - and actually, there's been a lot of conjecture regarding this that began in this thread some 3 hours ago... It may behoove you to go back over them as many individuals have rendered some decent insights/foresights on the matter.
I commented on this about 8:50 PM (four and a half hours ago) tonight and the general inpression was that I was wrong; I though I was crazy by now.
While it is clear that the storm would be much stronger without a land passage, am I correct in thinking that the long term path would be unaffected much, as this woud be a minor path deviation?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Watch Page for Hurricane
http://inte099018.halls.colostate.edu/~vigh/weather/hurricanes/2005/wilma_watch.htm
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The steering currents are so weak right now. I don't know what to think, much less tell someone.
It's obvious that 's being eroded on the western side...but they only indication of it seems to be the satellite images.
A minor pressure rise to 930mb with 150mph winds. A Force no one wants to reckon with.
I guess we will have to wait and see what she brings to us in the morning.
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Thunderbird12
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Pressure up 7mb from the last advisory, though until we get the next pressure reading, we won't know the current trend... it may have risen higher and then dropped, or has been slowly rising.
Supplementary vortex info indicates a secondary wind maximum outside of the eye, particularly in the NE quadrant, so another could be forthcoming in the future, assuming landfall doesn't disrupt the whole thing first:
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01207 10852 13060 10707 12072
02205 20853 23031 20808 12076
03203 30855 33992 30908 12090
04201 40856 43922 40808 13108
05199 50858 53834 51210 12102
06197 60859 63592 61111 12094
MF197 M0859 MF128
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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...SPECIAL FEATURE...
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 86.1W...OR ABOUT 80 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 21/0600 UTC
MOVING NW 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
WILMA COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE EARLIER TODAY AND THE NEW LARGER EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF 30 NM OR SO.
STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN SEMICIRCLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE N/NE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST TO THE S AND NON-EXISTENT TO THE W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE (EXCEPT THE RAINBANDS ARE NOT PENETRATING THAT FAR INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA).
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IN RAINBANDS ALSO EXTENDS MAINLY NE OF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W...EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE SE GULF.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULAR EYE WITH HEAVY RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NE PART OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS CANCUN...COZUMEL...AND TULUM.
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN IN THESE AREAS AS THE CORE OF APPROACHES THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/210541.shtml?
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 02:01 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Station 42040, located at 29°11'03"N 88°12'48"W approximately 64 nautical miles south of Dauphin Island Alabama, reported a significant wave height of 16.91 meters (55.5 feet) at 1100 UTC, August 29, 2005.
Station 42040 is a 3-meter diameter discus hull buoy deployed and operated by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Data Buoy Center (NDBC).
Although 42040 does not measure maximum wave heights, the maximum wave height may be statistically approximated by 1.9 times the significant wave height (World Meteorological Organization, 1998), which would be 32.1 meters (105 feet). At the time of the report, Hurricane was approximately 73 nautical miles to the west of 42040 with maximum sustained winds of 145 miles per hour (Public Advisory 26A issued by the National Hurricane Center). In addition to the 55-foot report, 42040 reported seas 12 feet or greater for 47 consecutive hours.
The 55-foot report surpasses the previous highest significant wave height reported by an NDBC buoy in the Gulf of Mexico of 15.96 meters (52 feet), also reported by 42040 during Hurricane in September 2004, and matches the previous highest significant wave height reported by an NDBC buoy of 16.91 meters reported by station 46003 (in the Northeast Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian Islands) in January 1991.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/katrina/
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
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Oh look another record to add to the stack.  55 feet though. That's huge. I remember seeing 10-foot waves and thinking they were the end of the world.
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Margie
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Couldn't sleep.
That's the one I saw the next day, reviewing that buoy info after .
Well the dry air is getting really close in to the eye, on the west side, and in fact breached the eyewall for a short time (dvorak IR 0515Z).
Also it looked like the eye was going to go a little to the east of the next forecast point, so I reviewed the steering layer data and it had changed a little bit, allowing a slightly more northern movement (just for now). Don't know how long that'll last or what's driving it, because I haven't been really looking at any of that stuff.
However a small change like that in the track could mean a great deal to Cozumel and Cancun, if the eye went just to the east. But that would not be in time I think to help intensify because the dry air will continue to have a big impact, even if she finds water a little warmer and deeper to the east.
But she is moving slower and slower, and really it is starting to look like she isn't going anywhere for awhile. If that's the case, she may be able to overcome the dry air and rebuild the west side of the circulation.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
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Highest windspeed inbound to the Eye ...so far is now 130kts at flight level.
Pressure and Wind Center near 19.6N / 86.1W
The NOAA 9 Gulfstream is airborne. My guess would be a pre-storm enviroment flight for the 12Z model runs.
URNT12 KNHC 210657
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/06:44:30Z
B. 19 deg 36 min N__+10min
086 deg 05 min W__+03min
C. 700 mb 2469 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 220 deg 130 kt
G. 135 deg 018 nm
H. 929 mb__-1mb
I. 10 C/ 3055 m
J. 18 C/ 3051 m__- 2C
K. 11 C/ NA __+2C
L. CLOSED
M. C30_________5 nm smaller
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1324A OB 16
MAX FL WIND 130 KT SE QUAD 06:39:10 Z
notations by danielw
Looks to be more of a near North heading than West
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 03:04 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Well they're not gonna find anything higher on the NW side.
The last couple sat frames, eye is getting more cleared out, it is intensifying and it would not take much to push it over Cat 5. Still looks to be hardly moving. Since recon is going to be there awhile I assume it will get back up to Cat 5, barely, before they head for home.
Guess I'll stick around to find out if the pressure changed any (I assume not much) and then try to get back to sleep.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HanKFranK
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wow.. just about all of the globals have doing a cyclonic loop over the ne yucatan. have to admit that it wouldn't be unprecedented... isidore back in 2002 swung onshore in a weak steering environment due to the asymmetry in its windfield caused by proximity to the peninsula. if that happens it's major bad juju for cancun and cozumel.. they'll get hammered all weekend by hurricane winds and rain. better in the longrun for florida because once these large systems get over land and their inner cores spin down/entrain a bunch of dry air, they don't tend to spin back up. you just end up with a large but mild windstorm. even the odd model that doesn't swing the hurricane onshore (ukmet for instance) has it slowing to a crawl near the coastline. that's probably enough to spin it down another category. either way probably won't enter the gulf any stronger than a 3. all the models have pretty much slowed down but i don't quite see the extremely slow prog working out.. still think it can get to florida on sunday. the phasing solution i'm least certain about, but not backing away on that either.
there have been a few eyewall changes noted tonight... the definition and temperature gradient notably. what i see as important in the short term is the contraction. smaller eye=faster revolutions, it's as simple as that. with the pressure stable around 930mb a few miles off the diameter will have a wind-increasing effect, i'd expect by morning. the hurricane may creep back to 5 simply by inner core changes, though i doubt the pressure will be falling much. probably just stay steady or slowly weaken while offshore... spin down more quickly if it moves ashore.
anyhow, time to get some shuteye.
HF 0715z21october
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danielw
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While I was sitting here waiting for Hank to show up. (Just kidding Hank.).
I ran the Vortex fixes from20/2016Z to 21/0644Z through the GPS.
Using the 2016Z fix of 18.8/ 85.7 for the start point.
(The fix may look different than the fix, as I'm converting from deg/ min to decimals, and rounding.)
2016Z fix to the 0644Z fix just completed.
Equals a heading of 336degrees (True North) for 53.4nm.
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
While I was sitting here waiting for Hank to show up. (Just kidding Hank.).
I ran the Vortex fixes from20/2016Z to 21/0644Z through the GPS.
Using the 2016Z fix of 18.8/ 85.7 for the start point.
(The fix may look different than the fix, as I'm converting from deg/ min to decimals, and rounding.)
2016Z fix to the 0644Z fix just completed.
Equals a heading of 336degrees (True North) for 53.4nm.
North? Sounds like a glancing blow on the Yucatan. Exactly how much do you think this will affect track predictions?
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