KiminCanada
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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A stall offshore is bad, as it will allow the storm to maintain much more of its integrity - and ferocity - than one that stalls over land.
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jusforsean
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I am watching CNN and they said we are awaiting a breifing from max at the hurricane center and that there has been a forecast change?? any clues??
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KiminCanada
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Fletch
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Definately looks like a brief stall at the moment. Those poor people on Cozumel have been in the eye for almost 3 hours. The people on the south side of the island have been in the eyewall for even longer. This isn't going to be pretty for them.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Rdietch
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I am watching CNN and they said we are awaiting a breifing from max at the hurricane center and that there has been a forecast change?? any clues??
Just normal what he said he was going to do at this time of day.The storm has done about just what they said it would so just a update im sure.
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typhoon_tip
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A stall offshore is bad, as it will allow the storm to maintain much more of its integrity - and ferocity - than one that stalls over land.
danielw, I and several others spoke about this possibility at length in several different post yesterday, last night and this morning... some of those have some interesting insights if any of you are interested in going back through the last thread.
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stellar1
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In the absence of steering winds, does anyone know whether any of the models will factor in ocean currents? The current in the Yucatan Channel off Cancun is apparently about three knots in a northerly direction this time of year. If winds aren't sufficient to steer her, might an ocean current influence which way goes?
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Thunderbird12
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For the time being, it is at least temporarily slowed or stalled just off the coast (basically over Cozumel), though even the slightest drift to the east will bring it over land and commence weakening. Keep in mind that most of the models don't have getting picked up until around 48 hours or more, so it could slow to 1 mph and still end up over land for quite a long time, unless it starts drifting away from the coast. Unless it somehow starts drifting more to the east, it will be practically impossible for this thing to not make landfall over the Yucatan sooner or later, even if it slows to almost no movement at all.
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typhoon_tip
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In the absence of steering winds, does anyone know whether any of the models will factor in ocean currents? The current in the Yucatan Channel off Cancun is apparently about three knots in a northerly direction this time of year. If winds aren't sufficient to steer her, might an ocean current influence which way goes?
Ocean currents do not have any influence on the track modeling for hurricanes...
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typhoon_tip
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For the time being, it is at least temporarily slowed or stalled just off the coast (basically over Cozumel), though even the slightest drift to the east will bring it over land and commence weakening. Keep in mind that most of the models don't have getting picked up until around 48 hours or more, so it could slow to 1 mph and still end up over land for quite a long time, unless it starts drifting away from the coast. Unless it somehow starts drifting more to the east, it will be practically impossible for this thing to not make landfall over the Yucatan sooner or later, even if it slows to almost no movement at all.
...It must be a remarkable experience to be on the NE aspect of that Island... They been IN the eye now for over 2 hours and that just must be very interesting...
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Genesis
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I don't know if I'd call an experience like that "remarkable".... more like "where's my spare underwear!"
I have to wonder if any part of the island is still above water. The surge had to be horiffic with the wind-driven waves on top of it. We took 10 footers in the bay during , which broke against the retaining wall for my pool. On the gulf it was an entirely different matter - I saw the damage afterward, with some second-floor condos that had a foot of sand in them (!)
Being stuck on the island, as I understand a significant number of people are, leaves one wondering if they're still there..... let's hope so....
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Lee-Delray
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I am watching CNN and they said we are awaiting a breifing from max at the hurricane center and that there has been a forecast change?? any clues??
Just normal what he said he was going to do at this time of day.The storm has done about just what they said it would so just a update im sure.
Agreeed he did this yesterday too. I bet he tells people in Florida again that all hurricanes are dangerous (among other things)
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nandav
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When we lived on Guam in 1976, we were hit with a Supertyphoon (Typhoon Pamela) .. and it stalled going over us.. we were in the eye for 3 hours. People had time to leave the shelters, go look at their property, and come back. Some braver (or dumber) souls probably fixed dinner... Then we had another 6 hours or so for the rest of it to pass. NOT a fun experience... rather terrifying, actually.
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Jamiewx
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As they did yesterday, Sun Sentinel will have live video of the Max Mayfield press conference at 4:45pm ET
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Rdietch
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Just ran all the early and Late model cycle runs and every Model except the good ole LBAR has it going to south Florida.The ones ahaving it coming to tampa Sarasota have shifted sout but of course the 1.So out of 50 different Models all but 1 are from FT Myers to the Keys.
Sen from Florida on TV in a plane in the Cane said he was confident of a Sharp turn NE once it gets to the Gulf.
We shall see.
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typhoon_tip
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I don't know if I'd call an experience like that "remarkable".... more like "where's my spare underwear!"
I have to wonder if any part of the island is still above water. The surge had to be horiffic with the wind-driven waves on top of it. We took 10 footers in the bay during , which broke against the retaining wall for my pool. On the gulf it was an entirely different matter - I saw the damage afterward, with some second-floor condos that had a foot of sand in them (!)
Being stuck on the island, as I understand a significant number of people are, leaves one wondering if they're still there..... let's hope so....
yeah, well....it's easy to cast out all these menageries in horror but the truth is, we have no idea what they are going through - just to hone that...
some of the most beautiful beaches in this hemisphere are on that eastern coast of the Yucatan and Islands and the esthetic cost will be staggering... I mean, they were getting 35 foot wave this morning before the eyewall wind and surge came in there... Haven't heard any reports from the Island but the damage could conceivably approach category 5 because of duration. So, beyond the immediate enormity of what is likely taking place, unyielding there, the erosion is just going to be incredible.
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komi
Weather Watcher
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For now, thats what models say: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
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MikeC
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FYI We had issues earlier today where the site was down for about an hour. It's since been fixed and I'm running some diagnoses on the site and made some modifications to handle larger site loads. It should be stable now, however.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 212018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/20:06:40Z
B. 20 deg 27 min N
086 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2454 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 098 deg 119 kt
G. 008 deg 017 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A OB 22
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 19:12:50 Z
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