Margie
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Good morning. Could not spend any time on storm tracking until now because of some critical personal things I had to attend to.
Poor Cozumel, they really got hammered by a solid Cat 4 slow-moving . She really cleaned up her act before landfall, and in spite of the repeated sheering off of the NW side of the circulation she kept coming back and rebuilding it. It was clear that the eyewall gained some strength even while the western side kept getting shredded. Looks like the eyewall just finished clearing out (and has been shrinking since I went to bed at around 2 or 3am), and in fact has never looked "better" than right now. I caught some of the recon output -- not all -- from last night/this morning's run, and saw that there were additional wind maximums, so I wouldn't be surprised if she was almost ready for another even having just barely recovered from this one. I see the eye shrunk a bit before landfall so I imagine the eyewall winds tightened up even more. Very bad for Cozumel. I am afraid that when word starts getting out in a some days or a week, that they will have experienced not only a huge surge, which may have engulfed most or even all of the island, but also tremendous damage from the winds. I unfortunately am visualizing the aerial images after of the Buras-Triumph area.
Fortunately they will have quite some time in the large eywall for people to possibly make it to safety to a taller building, before getting hammered again. However it looks like this one could stay in their vicinity for quite some time without losing too much ground. I can't even imagine what they are going through and what is in store for them today.
I really hate watching the landfall, and so at this point it is really hard for me to look forward beyond these moments and try to anticipate FL landfall.
I read the 10am, and Knabb's writeups were really outstanding. All night I'd been watching the steering layer with those two ridges from the two highs each alternately becoming dominant in the steering, but didn't articulate that in my posts. He made it very clear in the writeup. And BTW they have changed again and as of right now indicate a slightly NNE movement / little or no movement, however it seems as of right now the high over Mex is weaker and is giving a bit, which is possibly what is allowing the NW movement:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
And look just to the north, to AL/FL Gulf Coast.
Someone made a comment about the track not changing much -- has spent some days hanging around the Caribbean. 's reasoning is to pick the most likely track (and boy do they know how to pick a winner; they've had an amazing track record), and then only make minor adjustments, until a big reason comes along to make a big change to the track. Well that big reason hasn't happened yet. An example is when the track for was moved 150m to the west, from the FL panhandle to the MS Gulf Coast.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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tpratch
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Sadly, slowing down is worse news for points further north including Tampa. The longer it takes her to get picked up, the more potential northward movement she gains...
YMMV SPSFD
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evergladesangler
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Sadly, slowing down is worse news for points further north including Tampa. The longer it takes her to get picked up, the more potential northward movement she gains...
YMMV SPSFD
Are you talking about a scenario where even the big cold front (that will drop low temps in the Panhandle by 20 degrees by Monday) misses the storm?
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Thunderbird12
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12Z still indicates the stall scenario. That is not a good model for intensity, so I would take its reintensification of after 48 hours over land with a grain of salt. The inner-core of would likely be permanently destroyed if it spent that much time over land. The 12Z shows slowing down on or just off the northern coast of the Yucatan, a scenario that would not produce as much weakening as the 12Z .
Wilma looks like your garden variety cat 4 hurricane, if there is such a thing. A large and very well-defined eye on satellite, but the convection is rather warm and not quite symmetrical, so no indication that it is deepening that much.
Regarding 99L, they did a test SHIPS run at 12Z on it and the results suggested only marginal intensification at best. The initial track output suggested movement towards the Bahamas through 72 hours, but then recurvature into the Atlantic.
Edit: keeps over the Yucatan for about 36 hours, which would also result in signficant weakening.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Oct 21 2005 05:12 PM)
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Rdietch
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Sadly, slowing down is worse news for points further north including Tampa. The longer it takes her to get picked up, the more potential northward movement she gains...
YMMV SPSFD
That is False.Slowing down gives the ridge more time.Per channel 13 Met the slower it goes and stallsthe better for the Sarasota Tampa Area.
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jeangfl
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I am confused - I thought if she slowed and stalled she would track farther SOUTH - ????? Frustrations here in Ft. Myers are running at an all time high - 
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Genesis
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Sadly, slowing down is worse news for points further north including Tampa. The longer it takes her to get picked up, the more potential northward movement she gains...
YMMV SPSFD
Not necessarily.
The key question is which buckles further - the high over MX or the high over mainland FL? If the trough buckles the high over MX, that favors a more northward track. If the other way, then the track is favored eastward.
I've been a fan of the MX high backing off......
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Rdietch
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12Z still indicates the stall scenario. That is not a good model for intensity, so I would take its reintensification of after 48 hours over land with a grain of salt. The inner-core of would likely be permanently destroyed if it spent that much time over land. The 12Z shows slowing down on or just off the northern coast of the Yucatan, a scenario that would not produce as much weakening as the 12Z .
Wilma looks like your garden variety cat 4 hurricane, if there is such a thing. A large and very well-defined eye on satellite, but the convection is rather warm and not quite symmetrical, so no indication that it is deepening that much.
Regarding 99L, they did a test SHIPS run at 12Z on it and the results suggested only marginal intensification at best. The initial track output suggested movement towards the Bahamas through 72 hours, but then recurvature into the Atlantic.
!!LINK!! would love 1 to the 12Z
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evergladesangler
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!!LINK!! would love 1 to the 12Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
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komi
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Best scenario for all is - to stall after landfall and to weak as much as possible, after that is not really big diference where going to make landfall on FLA ... weak storm right on me is better then stron storm 100 miles away from me ..
But again, i am not that smart :-)))
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Tracey
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check out this wv image n/s axis????
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html
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bobbutts
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actual sat maps ( google earth perhaps) that we could see Cozumel through the eye with
http://www.paulseabury.com/tropModels.kmz
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Thunderbird12
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Best scenario for all is - to stall after landfall and to weak as much as possible, after that is not really big diference where going to make landfall on FLA ... weak storm right on me is better then stron storm 100 miles away from me ..
But again, i am not that smart :-)))
That might be the best scenario for Florida, but a stall would only make the disaster that much worse in Mexico.
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typhoon_tip
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Updated it again to make it more readable and to make the Full path more distinct.
I think this is as far as I'm going to bother with updating the look. No need to make it pretty - it's just data 
Then again, I could gussy up this data something fierce and make it so purty...
/but I won't. Back to work.
..Keep it up, it's a good product you're creating there... In fact, you should write some code to automate that process if possible - so that one day, when you have your own meteorology domain you can have it as an in situ source.
..Looks like the time over land hypothesis is winning over the 'just barely skimming and staying off-shore'. I was torn between the two late last night, but admittedly tended to side with the barely off shore thinking... That was only given to the short-term concerted 340degree motion, however, between appr. 9pm and midnight.. I'm a big proponent of weightier data contributions, so the kicker becomes the fact that the NOAA dropsonde mission this morning has demonstrated the ridging in the Gulf has more integrity than the 06Z guidance believe (may already have been noted by some other posts.. I've been out of the loop all morning). For intensity enthusiasts, the possibilities appear to be limited now to 2:
1) It stalls and rakes the coast for a day or 2 before resuming a gentle NE motion - prior to an acceleration..
2) It moves on inland at a slow rate of speed and lingers in suffication. But...I'm sure you've all covered this...
..Down the road a piece, NEW CONCERN :
"A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."
..I concur.. I noted yesterday that this wave had some subtle signature of cyclonic curl to it but didn't bother to bring it up because of the package of interest at hand. At the time the U/A winds were unfavorable; however, the system was moving W and still is, and we knew at the time that it was about to move up underneath a favorable U/A. Also, (believe it or not) the areas of the "central" Caribbean could stand a little SST shake-up as they are running about +1.5 SST anomaly (in keeping with the Atlantic MDO), and since it's been a good while since there's been any processing in that specific are, the actual content is impressive enough: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005293ca.jpg
..Anyway, this wave is now moving up underneath a fairly strong U/A ridge expression that will likely be increasing in stature over the next 3 to 5 days, based on 200+mb analysis of the available global based guidance; those being UKMET, , ECM and that I've observed. They all indicate light winds and anticyclonic potential at and above this level, which are all a good fit of larger scale synoptics.
..I believe it is a good bet that a new TC will be evolving of this impulse. Supposing so...after 4 days there will be large scale synoptic changes that will affect the western Caribbean... A full latitude trough is slated to evolve in eastern N/A during the early-middle part of next week, and early indications are that it will subtend a lower height field and SW mid and U/A wind components at and W of 75 longitude in the Caribbean. This would connote a shear axis aligning NNE to SSW; to enter that would be a detriment to "Alpha", should that be the case.
This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the s potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...
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trinibaje
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This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the s potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...
I heard Joe B say on some radio talk show that Wima is the last hurricane because the trough that is going to pick her up will clear out the atmosphere.... now i said to myself.. i am no met but that just sounds unscientific and foolish....
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Geoff, What is your father saying about ?
Kimberley
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Actually, he just stopped by during lunch so he's not near his porch "weather station" 
I think we're just like everyone here; we're not letting our guard down, but getting more hopeful.
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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Storm is being lifted north on it's NE side and then it will go more east... ne or even ene... if you watch the flow. Thanks ..rarely use that loop and love it.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html
You can see it digging down trying to tug it and then the flow goes east to west again.
Accuweather is in a rush to get winter on as they are mostly northern guys into snow and blizzards, especially Bastardi who is in an odd rush to write off the rest of the season with a beautiful wave developing into our next named tropical cyclone.
My 5 cents.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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jlauderdal
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This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the s potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...
I heard Joe B say on some radio talk show that Wima is the last hurricane because the trough that is going to pick her up will clear out the atmosphere.... now i said to myself.. i am no met but that just sounds unscientific and foolish....
are you sure he didnt say last one for awhile. that would be correct since the big front is going to clear everything out.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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no he said last one for the season...... he said that was it.. period
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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typhoon_tip
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This is all intended as an early plausibility so please don't throw the gallows at me if it doesn't pan out. I just thought it amusing that Accuweather came on Fox News the other day and said that "will be the last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season". We'll see, but, if this next system evolves, they may end up right for the wrong reasons (I hate that) because large scale synoptics "at this time" appear as though indeed, they would not allow it (more likely) to get W of ~75 lon. Time will tell, but the models were premature about the s potential recurve into the westerlies, so it may just be that there is a meridianal bias to the current middle range guidance - which could indicate a W correction...
I heard Joe B say on some radio talk show that Wima is the last hurricane because the trough that is going to pick her up will clear out the atmosphere.... now i said to myself.. i am no met but that just sounds unscientific and foolish....
are you sure he didnt say last one for awhile. that would be correct since the big front is going to clear everything out.
Actually, to be fair... it wasn't Joe B... I'm sorry - I cannot recall the gentleman's name but it was some other senior level dude at Accuweather.... But, it is possible that Joe B made a statement as well, that I am not aware of...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 21 2005 05:39 PM)
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