Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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If does not make an extensive westerly move over land, there will more than likely be some weakening, but not as much as if it was going to cross like they previously thought. has definitely going on a more NW/NNW path for the past several hours. IF she does not go over the tip of the Yucatan, you can throw that model right out the window. I think those models are based on information put in several hours prior to being spit out.
We have one choice at this point: to just watch and see what does as she moves towards Cancun. Right now, I'm leaning towards her maybe just brushing the coast near Cancun because of the more northerly component we have seen in the last several hours. Just as it looks like she is going more west, it seems to correct itself and head more nw/nnw. That's the best news Cancun good get.
To the poster who said no longer has Tampa in the cone, that is not correct. I would look at the 's cone, not the 's.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Londovir. It could be a mixture of both. George Jenkins is one of the shelters in Polk County, and I think there are others. Also, no matter what it comes in as -- the weather isn't going to be pretty here Monday.
Off to run some errands!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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Did the forum/system crash?
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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I couldn't get on gor an hour
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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Seems like forum is everloaded ...
Some SQL "too manu connectoins" error poping up ...
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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I like to follow them from the beginning. That is one of the things that is so fascinating about these storms. just started
as a cluster of thunderstorms off Puerto Rico before she ended up slamming into TX/LA as a Cat 3. I find it most interesting to watch
them from the beginning. But I'm watching too. I was just wondering if this might be Alpha, another history maker.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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Last one for a while, Can't seem to find a newer image.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 211916
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/19:01:40Z
B. 20 deg 22 min N
086 deg 42 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 235 deg 112 kt
G. 139 deg 031 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 9 C/ 3044 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A OB 15
MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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No chicken bones, just many decades of hands on experience navagating in and around typhoons and hurricanes throughout all the oceans of the world.
Of course, that kind of experience and intuition is no longer necessary now that we have all these highly accurate computers models available to tell us where the storms are going.
Besides, you don't have worry yourself; we're all safe and no lives will be lost because I can guarantee that this octogenarian sea captain won't be taking Max Mayfield's job anytime soon.
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Does he also consult the chicken bones before making decisions that could cost people their lives?  Barometer could go up from several reasons, only one of which is a system moving away from you.
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Last year as we were being told to evacuate our home here in Tampa because of , my father called and said not to worry that it was going to turn. I asked him why he thought that; and he said (after reading his garage sale barometer on his porch up in north Tampa) "our pressure is rising, it nevers goes up when they're approaching. It must be turning."
A few hours later we started hearing the local mets saying that it looked like it was turning.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Recent dropsondes in the SE and NE eyewalls reported 128 kt and 110 kt surface winds, respectively. Surface winds from the dropsondes are consistently showing up as slightly stronger than flight-level winds, though whether the dropsonde obs are representative of sustained winds or gusts is open to speculation.
Wilma appears to have essentially stalled in the last 1-2 hours.
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Circinae
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Naples, Florida
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I couldn't get most good weather related sites to load either. Interesting that Collier County Emergency Managers are suggesting that the people in the mandatory evacuation zones move north to Sarasota because the cone still includes Sarasota and even Tampa area. I live in a non evacuation area of the the County...unless we have surge projected for Cat 5. Most of this County would be under water then. The number of models running through our area concern me. I will be very interested in seeing what they show when eventually makes the turn to the northeast.
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
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Quote:
Recent dropsondes in the SE and NE eyewalls reported 128 kt and 110 kt surface winds, respectively. Surface winds from the dropsondes are consistently showing up as slightly stronger than flight-level winds, though whether the dropsonde obs are representative of sustained winds or gusts is open to speculation.
Wilma appears to have essentially stalled in the last 1-2 hours.
Between the 2:04 and 3:17 VDM's, has moved from 20 degrees 19 minutes and 86 d 43 m to 20 d 22 m and 86.42 m. (Borrowed from another forum.) Assuming they hit the center, that would mean a NNNE, which is not likely, but it is moving a little.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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We all talked about a stall over land, but not BEFORE land. Any ideas?
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iuhoosiers
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
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Does anyone know when and if Max Mayfield is making his next news conference???
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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
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Whats up everybody....
What has to happen for this to stall like everyone seems to think? Does it become stationary, or just continue at its current 4-5-6mph, before it gets picked up?
I am not the model searcher, but was curious if they are all in agreance? Do they have a good grasp where it is going to go at this time? It seems as if the official track by the has been relatively the same the last 18-24 hrs, and the uncertainty has shifted to the intesity at FL landfall. How accurate do these speculations seem to be.. Enlighten me please..
out... ft. myers....
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
Between the 2:04 and 3:17 VDM's, has moved from 20 degrees 19 minutes and 86 d 43 m to 20 d 22 m and 86.42 m. (Borrowed from another forum.) Assuming they hit the center, that would mean a NNNE, which is not likely, but it is moving a little.
That would be consistent with a stall. There will be wobbling as it spins. The million dollar question is will she wobble onto land or maintain stall and wobble off shore?
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Jim
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I don't see a stall now. Speed up the Cancun radar presentation and you can see a fairly consistent motion slightly n of nw...lots of little wobbles but it looks that the center will pass just south and west of Cancun if the present motion continues...they must be getting hammered...a slow mover is so scary..Dennis came thru hear so fast ...20-30 minutes of intense winds...but took hours and it is enough to drive you nuts..I feel for the 20,000 tourists stuck there....they are going to have a miserable few days...
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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3' N and 1' E probably falls into the range of margin of error for a center fix in a system with a large eye like . It is difficult to discern any motion from the satellite loop since 1815Z and even before then it was moving very slowly.
Against all odds, the western semicircle of the system actually seems to have rebounded quite a bit, with cloud tops cooling off quite a bit in that part of the system.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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NHC certainly wasn't far off in their pressure estimate.
Wilma strengthened in the sense the pressure dropped a little, and the organziation right around the eye improved, but her overall wind speed is down, and no surprise there.
Actually the last six hours there was a steady NW movement, with oscillations (likely caused by the asymmetrical windfield) around the SW corner of the eyewall (the same type of oscillations that were seen dramatically exaggerated the other day with the very small eyewall). To see this, bring up the wv loop and zoom in like 4-5 times and page through the images.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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Quote:
Against all odds, the western semicircle of the system actually seems to have rebounded quite a bit, with cloud tops cooling off quite a bit in that part of the system.
Yep, looks just fine to me too; http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
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