komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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Wilma officialy make a landfall !!!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The last vortex message indicates a little more movement NW than is apparent from satellite, though again, with the movement so slow, the error in pinpointing the exact center comes into play when diagnosing the motion. Whatever motion there is still seems to be to the NW for now.
A recent dropsonde in the NNW eyewall reported surface winds of 127 kts. It'll be interesting to see what pegs as the intensity, since the dropsondes suggest stronger winds than what the flight-level winds would suggest. Also, the near stall has occurred at a bad time for , even if it is temporary, since it comes as they are about to issue a new advisory and this just throws more uncertainty into the mix.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Check out the last couple of frames on the IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
It looks as though she is sorta rolling up the coastline. I've seen this around Cuba I believe. I can't remember which storm but it was like it didn't like the terrain so it just rolled along the coast till free. I hope she makes up her mind soon. I feel for the people in Mexico but I don't want her either.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
Check out the last couple of frames on the IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
It looks as though she is sorta rolling up the coastline. I've seen this around Cuba I believe. I can't remember which storm but it was like it didn't like the terrain so it just rolled along the coast till free. I hope she makes up her mind soon. I feel for the people in Mexico but I don't want her either.
i think it was who didn't like Cuba so much.. but i can't recall
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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Max Mayfield on now!
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Yep, all the models seem to know which way it will go. I believe that NOAA is sending another G-IV mission out tonight and if the models stay on track, then like it or not, SW Florida is going to take a hit.
The good news, if there is any, is they will have a sufficent amount of time for those in SW Florida to prepare.
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Jara
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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substantial weakening expected.
wind chart
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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The 5 o clock has it as a Cat 1 prior to landfall which will be late Monday or early Tuesday?
www.sun-sentinel.com
Edited by Lee-Delray (Fri Oct 21 2005 04:53 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Aparently nobody was listening so I'll repeat my post:
Actually the last six hours there was a steady NW movement, with oscillations (likely caused by the asymmetrical windfield) around the SW corner of the eyewall (the same type of oscillations that were seen dramatically exaggerated the other day with the very small eyewall). To see this, bring up the wv loop and zoom in like 4-5 times and page through the images.
Wilma is not stalling, she is just moving very slowly, oscillating as she goes.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Actually Margie I didn't say she was stalling. I was commenting on her "movement" up the coast... LOL! She may plow right in, I don't know, but the last couple of frames just looked like she was skirting the coast.
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Loc: BROWARD
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Quote:
Just ran all the early and Late model cycle runs and every Model except the good ole LBAR has it going to south Florida.The ones ahaving it coming to tampa Sarasota have shifted sout but of course the 1.So out of 50 different Models all but 1 are from FT Myers to the Keys.
Sen from Florida on TV in a plane in the Cane said he was confident of a Sharp turn NE once it gets to the Gulf.
We shall see.
This is one model run and a 18Z Run. They have been shifting back and forth, when data is added at 00 and 12Z. So we shall see as you stated. Amazing that our Senators are riding along with the NOAA Folks, I would prefer they stay on the ground.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
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Quote:
This is one model run and a 18Z Run. They have been shifting back and forth, when data is added at 00 and 12Z. So we shall see as you stated. Amazing that our Senators are riding along with the NOAA Folks, I would prefer they stay on the ground.
Depends on which Senator it is. 
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Dawn
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 25
Loc: St. Petersburg FL
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What are you saying-things are bad for Florida or good? Please give me your view. Have watched your post for a year now and worried about your brother with .
I justr don't understand what you said. I live in St Petersburg and am ready, but my parents will not let me get them ready.
Dawn
I have not been watching every post as I am outside trying to clean up my husband's toys and tie them down as they have not been used in so long they will be ready for next year.
Edited by Dawn (Fri Oct 21 2005 05:15 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Actually Margie I didn't say she was stalling. I was commenting on her "movement" up the coast... LOL! She may plow right in, I don't know, but the last couple of frames just looked like she was skirting the coast.
Absolutely true and I should have been more specific to those who were talking about stalling, my apologies.
Usually I just add to the ignore user list, don't know what I was thinking, posting to the noise level, which must be getting to me! 
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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Well, thay say what i want to hear, will be cat1 or cat 2 @ landfall somewhere on sw fla ....
Make me feel a bit better, but - ready for worse ...
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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A CATAGORY 1 HURRICANE IS STILL DANGEROUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Actually I think this storm is getting to everybody. Very annoying when day after day you have to wait a day to see what it's going to do...LOL!
What's the possibility that this thing goes away as far as a hurricane if it sits over land? I've heard referance to it but don't want to get my hopes up.
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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my wife says cancun is nice. i wish i would have seen it before hit. i fear that will do what did to places along the coast. except is a bit stronger, and is moving slower.
good luck cancun, you will need it for the next 4-6 hours.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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komi
Weather Watcher
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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