Big Tk
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
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Here
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Quote:
Quote:
You mean the old run from last night 0Z,,that model isnt updated yet besides every model changes from run to run... Sarasota 1 day,,next run might be Cuba... they arnt sure.
Yes there is a New Gaps and it keeps it over land for the 5 days.Not that it is right but that is NEW also when you posted yesterday the new 12Z run had it going to Sarasota it never did it had it going to Naples.
Anyway there is a New Gaps out and it has changed with the others.
Can you tell me where that new that keeps it over land for 5 days is? said 10 minutes ago that it does not!
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 89
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that is the early cycle one not the one with the Gaps which is a Late cycle one.And if the one on the Weather underground is old then its there Fault as it was not there like 30 mins ago.
Edited by Rdietch (Fri Oct 21 2005 11:30 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Nogaps isnt on that spagetti model run.....the 6z run site that I get my info from isnt loading up,,,probably traffic problems.. Anyways like I said before,,that was the 6z or 0z run from the other day,,not the 12Z run I had unless I saw it wrong at that time.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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actually that link DOES have the on it I if i am not mistaken anyway.....
and just for some clalification yest that run did have it going where scott said but his point is: THESE MODEL RUNS CHANGE and will continue to do so, stating the most recent run is just that telling what the run is.
scottsvb is one of tre more knowledgeable people on here that alot of us look to for info, just ask hankfrank or clark, scott also knows of what he speaks
peace
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ronn
User
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
Nogaps isnt on that spagetti model run.....the 6z run site that I get my info from isnt loading up,,,probably traffic problems.. Anyways like I said before,,that was the 6z or 0z run from the other day,,not the 12Z run I had unless I saw it wrong at that time.
Isn't the indicated by I?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Wimla is weakening, but is still maintaining a well-defined stadium eye.
It also seems to have a very organized radar appearance, which I have attached an image of.
I'm still with the thinking that the Hurricane will, after weakening to a Cat2 or possibly weakining to a Cat3, make landfall somewhere between Cape Sable, and Fort Myers, sometime before Wednesday.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I really dont know,, something new I learned or forgot. Might be like the has GFNL and 2 diff kind of tracks..
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DrewC
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
Loc: Auburndale, FL
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The models seem to be drifting more north again. Heaven forbid if the LBAR turns out to be the most correct. It sure has been the most consistent for the last three days.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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I was looking at the system that might become a tropical system in the next couple of days. Looks pretty good to me.
What are the chances of the system developing?
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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There are two. One in the SE carribean (potential Alpha 2005) and one by the CV islands (potential Beta 2005). There are a few more waves, but none that stand out like those two. I'm sure they'll be addressed at some point, but for now we're focusing on .
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
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A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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Is it me or does look like its going WNW?
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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I have my own thoughts that I shared 2 days ago with folks on another "board".
I think there will definitely be a more northward trend in the models in upcoming days, but I'm not even going to bother listing a landfall - there's too much between now and then to talk places yet. If you're on the west coast of Florida, make your preparations.
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pincty
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
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Weather Underground had a new NOCAP's model on their site approximately one hour ago. Now they have the old one back on. But I am positive that they had an 8:00 a.m. model which was run on 10/21/05. I even checked it twice before posting. Now it is gone and the old one is up.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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OK,, never know..They usual update the on there like 6 hrs late. Anyways the whole thing will be over with in 36hrs and what I mean by that is by then we should hopefully see a movement off the Yucitan and a heading that all the models agree on. Hopefully then we can narrow down a landfall within 100miles. For now,,its where it comes off, how long its on land.. etc............
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Just spoke to my hubby who is in St. Vincent and he said they have been pounded by wind and rain for the past two days..... Is this Alpha?
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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For all the talk about track changes, the has barely moved it's track over Florida all week long. We started this work week where we are ending it with a Naples to West Palm Beach run. I specifically remember it because it was over Boynton Beach(my house) at the beginning of the week and is now over Jupiter at the end of the week (a 25 mile difference). It also didn't really vary from that all week long. The differences in track over Florida have been nil by the . Yes, the models have changed and the track over the Caribbean has, but the track hasn't changed over Florida all week long, except for the timing.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Steeler Fan
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: Sarasota, FL
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Since we are all focusing hard on at the present time (and some of us have reached the ultimate level of frustration in trying to second guess her), lets not forget those that make this board possible!
We have all appreciated this resource or we would not be here.
Someone posted this same thing last night late evening, but it bears repeating...There is a link on the left of the screen called "Site Donations and thanks".
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"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc:
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Hello, total amateur here....
If you look at this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Doesn't it appear as if the western side is flattening out?
Wouldn't that indicate pressure being applied to that western side?
Thus, a nudging to the north being in the works and possibly even the initial turns?
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