Spookhil
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: Lake Wales, Florida
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Long time lurker first post......Just wondering is there any possible way it would keep the N NW movement?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Considering that it is October 21, it isn't exactly going out on a limb to say that this will be the last hurricane to potentially affect the U.S.. Just based on climatology alone, the odds are overwhelming in favor of this being the last one. Based on the forecast weather pattern, 99L does not appear to have much of a chance to threaten the U.S. coast.
If anyone is interested in satellite imagery that updates more frequently, the following link has images and loops that update about as frequently as anything I can find on the web, though I don't care for the IR color scheme and the looping program is not the best. is close enough now to be visible using the Gulf imagery:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/
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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User
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He (JB) was a guest on Hannity's radio show yesterday and he did say that he believed this would be the last of the season.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I see what you're seeing also. If you look very closely, that area around TX/LA looked to have been moving southward, but now looks like it's pulling a little north and taking with it. In the last few frames, it does not appear to be moving as much west as it is north. Also, it looks like there is another trough/ULL coming in from the west that may also pull northward.
I know it's so frustrating at this point and we all want to know where it's going....as someone from Ft. Myers said to 's on-cam met, "It's agony...it's like hating going to the dentist but knowing that sooner or later you'll have to and you just want to get it over with."
I am having serious doubts that is going to stall out for 36 hours before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. I also think that Cancun is going to just get brushed by , maybe riding the coast, but I do not think it will go across the peninsula and weaken significantly. Of course, that's only based on what I am seeing now, things could change. I just think that the area building back into the GOM is going to help keep her further east than previously thought. I don't think the first cold front will catch her, but I believe the 2nd one will and she may be further north then forecasted when she turns north.
Of course, take all of this with a grain of salt. It's just my opinion, based on what my eyes see and I could be completely off based. At this point, all of our forecasts have at least a 50-75% of being correct.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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She may stall for a bit before moving NNW then N in the next 12 hours or so.
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HurricaneSteph
Verified CFHC User
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For those of you who haven't used it, you should click on the link for "Stormcarib reports from the islands" on the main page. It's had some updates over the last few hours with 4 or 5 photos showing what's happening right now in Cancun. Pretty cool site, I think. Also, I have another question. If the is in Miami and is in Easter Time....why are the updates on the site posted as Central Time?? Just curious.......
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HurricaneSteph
Orlando
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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OK the 12Z model is out and its NOT the NPGL that the spagetti model was showing..maybe a branch off like the has or it was the 6z run added on the 12Z list.. Anyways the 12Z is simular in path right now to the near Naples....
Again these models will change slightly and adjust...btw someone said that the all week hasnt really changed their track and he is correct...reason is,, we dont know where it will end up until it feels the trough coming down Saturday.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Answer..the storm is located in the central time zone...the lastest radar image shows the eye is over Cozomel..Cancun will be in the northern eyewall, which is the right front quadrant of this storm..it will be a mess there
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pinellas County
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The Weather Channel no longer has Tampa in the projected cone? Am I just anxious to get out of that cone or are they correct?
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evergladesangler
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Quote:
OK the 12Z model is out and its NOT the NPGL that the spagetti model was showing..maybe a branch off like the has or it was the 6z run added on the 12Z list.. Anyways the 12Z is simular in path right now to the near Naples....
Again these models will change slightly and adjust...btw someone said that the all week hasnt really changed their track and he is correct...reason is,, we dont know where it will end up until it feels the trough coming down Saturday.
That run shows an extensive westerly move over land before going back into the Gulf early Monday morning. What kind of remnants would be left at that point?
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HurricaneSteph
Verified CFHC User
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Thanks pcola, very interesting...I learned something new today. Had no idea that's how they did it.
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HurricaneSteph
Orlando
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Is moving on NNW right now: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html
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KiminCanada
Verified CFHC User
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What does that mean???? Good or bad for Florida??? Also are they still predicting it hitting florida Monday into Tuesday???
Thanks
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Does he also consult the chicken bones before making decisions that could cost people their lives?  Barometer could go up from several reasons, only one of which is a system moving away from you.
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Last year as we were being told to evacuate our home here in Tampa because of , my father called and said not to worry that it was going to turn. I asked him why he thought that; and he said (after reading his garage sale barometer on his porch up in north Tampa) "our pressure is rising, it nevers goes up when they're approaching. It must be turning."
A few hours later we started hearing the local mets saying that it looked like it was turning.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 211801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:44:00Z
B. 20 deg 19 min N
086 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2461 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 101 deg 116 kt
G. 010 deg 035 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 7 C/ 3048 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A OB 08
MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Just a FYI....Polk County just pulled the trigger on cancelling school on Monday. I just got the email in my county mailbox.
Don't know if that's premature, or not, but from what I gather it was more logistical than scientific at this point.
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Londovir
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Dropsonde into the northern eyewall measured 118 knot winds at the surface, which was actually slightly higher than the winds at any level above that. Given the presence of mutilple wind maxima, it's possible that the normal flight-level to surface wind profile is not the same as you would normally see, though as one of my colleagues pointed out to me yesterday, the winds measured by the dropsonde may be more indicative of gusts than sustained winds.
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native
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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Thanks T-Bird...you're always so on the ball with posting the recon. I must say that given the situation this morning with her I thought for sure the next recon might indicate that the dry air was affecting her...but she's tenacious and worked that out before it ever got it.
Isn't the 2pm updated pressure 4mb lower than 10's update??? Although someone had mentioned a possible getting underway & the contraction of the eye would create a drop in the pressure would it not??? Educate me please! 
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Ummm, this is the point that I raised...stall over mexico so it can kill more mexicans and less americans? Can we watch what we say about "good news" please? A cat 4 hurricane stalling anywhere over land is going to be catestrophic for those people unfortunate to be under it.
On topic: I see strengthening as I think if she will stay more north of cuba then the current track shows, keeping her over water. All depends on how much energy the Yucatan absorbs.
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Best scenario for all is - to stall after landfall and to weak as much as possible, after that is not really big diference where going to make landfall on FLA ... weak storm right on me is better then stron storm 100 miles away from me ..
But again, i am not that smart :-)))
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 930mb reading on the 11am advisory was an estimated value, because a plane had not been in there for a few hours. I believe the last recon pressure early this morning was 929 mb.
Completion of an would not necessarily result in a lower pressure (the disruption may actually cause a brief rise in pressure), but the tightening up of the wind field could cause the max winds to increase near the center. However, there is no indication yet that the outer wind maximum has made much of a move. It may just stay in a steady-state mode with two seperate wind maxes until landfall.
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